Lets talk Pilot Shortage!
05-23-2013 | 04:20 AM
#41
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 737
Likes: 0
Kit Darby is still talking up the profession:
Pilot Encouragement
From my letter to on a similar topic (AW&ST Feb. 11).
True, regional airline first officer (FO) pay is not now a living wage. Why not approach this period as a low-paid apprenticeship.
If you love to fly and are attracted to aircraft that fly higher, faster, further, this career may be for you.
Find a way to survive the low-paying regional FO years remembering that even regional captains, after five years, start at $70,000 per year.
There is still an incentive to get to the major carriers. My 35-year career value at the majors places the average career—pay, benefits and retirement—at nearly $11 million in 2013 dollars. Average FO starting pay is $50,000, increasing to $95,000 after five years. A starting captain after 10 years averages $125,000, and typical captains make $155,000. Top annual captain pay averages $200,000 and peaks at $280,000.
Average retirement is fully company paid at about 12% of annual compensation, and peaks at 16% (United Airlines). Plus, it is yours the moment it is paid and cannot be lost like in the past.
The most amazing part of the job is that you work mostly unsupervised. No time clock, just show up on time, do your job, and go home. Pretty amazing when you may be taking several hundred travelers and a crew of up to 15 to Europe in a $200 million aircraft.
These benefits are all based on seniority, so getting the job fast is paramount for long-term success. You go from no choices to lots of choices as your seniority increases. This is an up-and-down business that is never as bad as it looks at the bottom (like today).
So whether it is money, time off, fun or flexibility you seek, you might want to check the facts before you bail on this career right before the next hiring boom. The race to 1,500 flight hours is on.
Kit Darby
KitDarby.com Aviation Consulting, LLC
Peachtree City, Ga.
From my letter to on a similar topic (AW&ST Feb. 11).
True, regional airline first officer (FO) pay is not now a living wage. Why not approach this period as a low-paid apprenticeship.
If you love to fly and are attracted to aircraft that fly higher, faster, further, this career may be for you.
Find a way to survive the low-paying regional FO years remembering that even regional captains, after five years, start at $70,000 per year.
There is still an incentive to get to the major carriers. My 35-year career value at the majors places the average career—pay, benefits and retirement—at nearly $11 million in 2013 dollars. Average FO starting pay is $50,000, increasing to $95,000 after five years. A starting captain after 10 years averages $125,000, and typical captains make $155,000. Top annual captain pay averages $200,000 and peaks at $280,000.
Average retirement is fully company paid at about 12% of annual compensation, and peaks at 16% (United Airlines). Plus, it is yours the moment it is paid and cannot be lost like in the past.
The most amazing part of the job is that you work mostly unsupervised. No time clock, just show up on time, do your job, and go home. Pretty amazing when you may be taking several hundred travelers and a crew of up to 15 to Europe in a $200 million aircraft.
These benefits are all based on seniority, so getting the job fast is paramount for long-term success. You go from no choices to lots of choices as your seniority increases. This is an up-and-down business that is never as bad as it looks at the bottom (like today).
So whether it is money, time off, fun or flexibility you seek, you might want to check the facts before you bail on this career right before the next hiring boom. The race to 1,500 flight hours is on.
Kit Darby
KitDarby.com Aviation Consulting, LLC
Peachtree City, Ga.
05-23-2013 | 07:18 AM
#43
Line Holder
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,832
Likes: 5
From: 737 Left
With larger aircraft and reduction in frequency, we will fly the same number of seats to the same destinations with fewer pilots. No net shortage.
05-23-2013 | 07:45 AM
#44
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,543
Likes: 0
From: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
A minor pilot shortage will be a boon for the major airlines. The Low Cost Carriers have been a constant drag on ticket prices for decades. If the major airlines can slow them down by hiring their pilots away (at food-stamp wages), the majors can start raising ticket prices again. The majors still own and sell tickets on regional routes, it will be easy for them to take over the most profitable routes with planes they were scheduled to retire, and new pilots poached from the regionals. It would be a self-driven cycle.
The major airlines need a pilot crisis to get rid of the remaining rules on pilot experience, fatigue, maximum hours, minimum breaks, etc. Remember the sequester FAA controller "crisis", and how quickly congress changed laws to fix it? The airlines and their lobbyists will make sure the press reports on airlines shutting down and markets losing their air service. They need a lifeline.
Who thinks there will be a pilot shortage?
- Roger Cohen, President of the Regional Airline Association: Loath to Project Trends, Cohen Breaks with Form on Pilot Shortage | Aviation International News
Regional Airline Association chief warns of pilot shortage - Wichita Business Journal
Dearth of pilots raising worries
- Chuck Howell, CEO of Great Lakes Airlines: Real-Time News for Wyoming Communities
- The FAA: Activities, Courses, Seminars & Webinars - Event Details and Registration - FAA - FAASTeam - FAASafety.gov
- The University of North Dakota: Pilot Career Is Losing Its Appeal, Shows Survey | Aviation International News
- MIT: http://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/hand...pdf?sequence=1
- Air Transport World: Looming pilot shortage major concern for US regional airlines | Labor content from ATWOnline
- Aviation Accreditation Board International: http://www.aabi.aero/AirlinePilotLaborSupply1.pdf
http://www.aabi.aero/News&Calendar/P...20position.pdf
- The National Business Aviation Association: Faced With Workforce Shortages, Industry Must Attract New Talent | Personnel Considerations | NBAA - National Business Aviation Association
- The travel and tourism industry: Aruba Rentals Experts Explain Impact of Pilot Shortage | Aruba villas
- Jones Day: Jones Day | Pending Deadline for Airline Transport Pilot Certificates May Place U.S. Carriers in a Lurch
- Performance Pilot: The Airline Pilot Shortage in the U.S. to Effect Smaller Markets Most | Performance Pilot
- The U.S. Air Force: http://www.fighterpilotuniversity.co...-fighter-pilot
- Republic Airlines: The Durango Herald 02/04/2013 | Carrier’s staff shortage triggers delays--
- Delta and United Airlines (bottom of article):
New terminal kicks off renovations at Skyhaven | digitalBURG
- Chicago Tribune: Chicago Tribune
- Aviation Week: Who's Up Front?
- Travel Weekly: Things that should change in 2013 - Travel Weekly
etc, etc, etc. There was a good Wall Street Journal article a while back, somewhere in my files.
So, this is going to happen, is already happening in many parts of the world and a few sectors in the U.S. The airlines have been using it to raise the retirement age, to water down rules, to make more money. They are well prepared to keep you and I from making a dime more or working an hour less in our lives. What can we do? Not much. I'm not a fan of unions, and in this industry they've been effectively neutered. Wildcat action or wait for the next string of fatal accidents, and hope none involve you or your loved ones, or your airline.
The major airlines need a pilot crisis to get rid of the remaining rules on pilot experience, fatigue, maximum hours, minimum breaks, etc. Remember the sequester FAA controller "crisis", and how quickly congress changed laws to fix it? The airlines and their lobbyists will make sure the press reports on airlines shutting down and markets losing their air service. They need a lifeline.
Who thinks there will be a pilot shortage?
- Roger Cohen, President of the Regional Airline Association: Loath to Project Trends, Cohen Breaks with Form on Pilot Shortage | Aviation International News
Regional Airline Association chief warns of pilot shortage - Wichita Business Journal
Dearth of pilots raising worries
- Chuck Howell, CEO of Great Lakes Airlines: Real-Time News for Wyoming Communities
- The FAA: Activities, Courses, Seminars & Webinars - Event Details and Registration - FAA - FAASTeam - FAASafety.gov
- The University of North Dakota: Pilot Career Is Losing Its Appeal, Shows Survey | Aviation International News
- MIT: http://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/hand...pdf?sequence=1
- Air Transport World: Looming pilot shortage major concern for US regional airlines | Labor content from ATWOnline
- Aviation Accreditation Board International: http://www.aabi.aero/AirlinePilotLaborSupply1.pdf
http://www.aabi.aero/News&Calendar/P...20position.pdf
- The National Business Aviation Association: Faced With Workforce Shortages, Industry Must Attract New Talent | Personnel Considerations | NBAA - National Business Aviation Association
- The travel and tourism industry: Aruba Rentals Experts Explain Impact of Pilot Shortage | Aruba villas
- Jones Day: Jones Day | Pending Deadline for Airline Transport Pilot Certificates May Place U.S. Carriers in a Lurch
- Performance Pilot: The Airline Pilot Shortage in the U.S. to Effect Smaller Markets Most | Performance Pilot
- The U.S. Air Force: http://www.fighterpilotuniversity.co...-fighter-pilot
- Republic Airlines: The Durango Herald 02/04/2013 | Carrier’s staff shortage triggers delays--
- Delta and United Airlines (bottom of article):
New terminal kicks off renovations at Skyhaven | digitalBURG
- Chicago Tribune: Chicago Tribune
- Aviation Week: Who's Up Front?
- Travel Weekly: Things that should change in 2013 - Travel Weekly
etc, etc, etc. There was a good Wall Street Journal article a while back, somewhere in my files.
So, this is going to happen, is already happening in many parts of the world and a few sectors in the U.S. The airlines have been using it to raise the retirement age, to water down rules, to make more money. They are well prepared to keep you and I from making a dime more or working an hour less in our lives. What can we do? Not much. I'm not a fan of unions, and in this industry they've been effectively neutered. Wildcat action or wait for the next string of fatal accidents, and hope none involve you or your loved ones, or your airline.
Second bolded- Great Lakes needs to play ball with their pilots and get them a new contract. What do first year FOs make, 14k? Doesn't sound like a shortage, sounds like the free market working. (I respect the skill of GL pilots, by the way, no beef with them.)
Third bolded Why did the UND study show declining interest in becoming a pilot? How would keeping pilots easily replaceable (decrease in pilot scarcity power) fix that?
Fourth bolded-I don't know why the NBAA would even care since the ATP does not apply. I know of part 91 gigs that can and do hire 250 hour pilots. (Go figure that their pay also sucks).
Fifth bolded- Not an Air Force website, looks really hokie by the way. Screams SJS.
Sixth bolded - Republic also needs to play ball with their pilots and fix their contract. I don't know of any pilot group as large and as angry as them.
The rest? Just parroting the same tired story on a slow news day.
Notice a trend in the groups screaming pilot shortage? They all treat their pilots badly, or recognize pilot treatment is bad.
Last edited by block30; 05-23-2013 at 08:00 AM.
05-23-2013 | 07:55 AM
#45
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,543
Likes: 0
From: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
"Cohen said the number is arbitrary, especially when one considers the aircraft they will have to fly to get those hours will not be comparable to the kind of aircraft commercial pilots will need to be flying.
His reasoning: why aren’t pilots ready at 1,499 hours, when they are at 1,501?
“What’s the difference across the line?” he asked."
This is so true, just an arbitrary line in the the sand.... But I really wish they would stop calling it the "1500 hour rule" when in actually it's the asinine 500 hours of cross country that is jamming people up...
Thanks Scottm for actually backing up your post with facts...
His reasoning: why aren’t pilots ready at 1,499 hours, when they are at 1,501?
“What’s the difference across the line?” he asked."
This is so true, just an arbitrary line in the the sand.... But I really wish they would stop calling it the "1500 hour rule" when in actually it's the asinine 500 hours of cross country that is jamming people up...
Thanks Scottm for actually backing up your post with facts...
05-23-2013 | 08:09 AM
#48
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,935
Likes: 0
From: Airbus Capt
Had a passenger, a school teacher, query me on "why do we even have pilots" as we talked while waiting for equipment to arrive.
Had a bleeds off take off to clear ships in the harbor, then a couple of rapidly changing clearances to get us around an arriving American 757 they did not have radar coverage on and some VFR traffic not talking to anyone. Flying back, across an ocean, solar storms were effecting HF. There was a lot of blow off which had light turbulence (doesn't paint on radar) and as we got closer to our destination more and more weather to work around. Mostly we were able to keep the seat belt sign off, but, we had to suspend cabin service once. The cabin temperature controllers were doing their usual game of getting cold when fed with a lot of bleed and warming up as the throttles came back. ATC wanted everything from 330 to 150 as they tried to sequence traffic into JFK for the VOR DME to 13L, changed to 22, back to 13L, can you take the right? ... instead of an 8 quartering headwind we had about a 19 knot quartering tailwind, but the tail wind component was within limits. Runway was a little wet. Glad we used autobrakes 3 to get stopping early & flaps 40 to slow for the RJ that threw out the brakes once he cleared the VOR (nothing wrong with that, esp with the slight tail wind). Then the taxi in was fouled up by a foreign carrier who had a difficult time getting their taxi worked out after a gate change.
Uneventful day at work for a professional airline crew, but a nearly impossible task for a drone operator. How does a drone operator have the situational awareness to work around weather that they've not flown in? How does the drone operator know that row 11 gets cold, or feel the relationship between temperature and bleed air output. When does the drone operator suspend cabin service, or know to drop flaps 40 and swing wide to give the guys ahead a bit more time and thus avoid a go around? What does the drone operator do when traffic in front of him suddenly swings back out of the ramp without calling ground because there is no gate available?
IMHO there are too many variables in the environment to make a drone operation successful, either from a safety standpoint or a passenger comfort standpoint.
Had a bleeds off take off to clear ships in the harbor, then a couple of rapidly changing clearances to get us around an arriving American 757 they did not have radar coverage on and some VFR traffic not talking to anyone. Flying back, across an ocean, solar storms were effecting HF. There was a lot of blow off which had light turbulence (doesn't paint on radar) and as we got closer to our destination more and more weather to work around. Mostly we were able to keep the seat belt sign off, but, we had to suspend cabin service once. The cabin temperature controllers were doing their usual game of getting cold when fed with a lot of bleed and warming up as the throttles came back. ATC wanted everything from 330 to 150 as they tried to sequence traffic into JFK for the VOR DME to 13L, changed to 22, back to 13L, can you take the right? ... instead of an 8 quartering headwind we had about a 19 knot quartering tailwind, but the tail wind component was within limits. Runway was a little wet. Glad we used autobrakes 3 to get stopping early & flaps 40 to slow for the RJ that threw out the brakes once he cleared the VOR (nothing wrong with that, esp with the slight tail wind). Then the taxi in was fouled up by a foreign carrier who had a difficult time getting their taxi worked out after a gate change.
Uneventful day at work for a professional airline crew, but a nearly impossible task for a drone operator. How does a drone operator have the situational awareness to work around weather that they've not flown in? How does the drone operator know that row 11 gets cold, or feel the relationship between temperature and bleed air output. When does the drone operator suspend cabin service, or know to drop flaps 40 and swing wide to give the guys ahead a bit more time and thus avoid a go around? What does the drone operator do when traffic in front of him suddenly swings back out of the ramp without calling ground because there is no gate available?
IMHO there are too many variables in the environment to make a drone operation successful, either from a safety standpoint or a passenger comfort standpoint.
05-23-2013 | 08:11 AM
#49
7.27%
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 543
Likes: 0
From: Boeing
First bolded-You cited Roger Cohen?!
Second bolded- Great Lakes needs to play ball with their pilots and get them a new contract. What do first year FOs make, 14k? Doesn't sound like a shortage, sounds like the free market working. (I respect the skill of GL pilots, by the way, no beef with them.)
Third bolded Why did the UND study show declining interest in becoming a pilot? How would keeping pilots easily replaceable (decrease in pilot scarcity power) fix that?
Fourth bolded-I don't know why the NBAA would even care since the ATP does not apply. I know of part 91 gigs that can and do hire 250 hour pilots. (Go figure that their pay also sucks).
Fifth bolded- Not an Air Force website, looks really hokie by the way. Screams SJS.
Sixth bolded - Republic also needs to play ball with their pilots and fix their contract. I don't know of any pilot group as large and as angry as them.
The rest? Just parroting the same tired story on a slow news day.
Notice a trend in the groups screaming pilot shortage? They all treat their pilots badly, or recognize pilot treatment is bad.
Second bolded- Great Lakes needs to play ball with their pilots and get them a new contract. What do first year FOs make, 14k? Doesn't sound like a shortage, sounds like the free market working. (I respect the skill of GL pilots, by the way, no beef with them.)
Third bolded Why did the UND study show declining interest in becoming a pilot? How would keeping pilots easily replaceable (decrease in pilot scarcity power) fix that?
Fourth bolded-I don't know why the NBAA would even care since the ATP does not apply. I know of part 91 gigs that can and do hire 250 hour pilots. (Go figure that their pay also sucks).
Fifth bolded- Not an Air Force website, looks really hokie by the way. Screams SJS.
Sixth bolded - Republic also needs to play ball with their pilots and fix their contract. I don't know of any pilot group as large and as angry as them.
The rest? Just parroting the same tired story on a slow news day.
Notice a trend in the groups screaming pilot shortage? They all treat their pilots badly, or recognize pilot treatment is bad.
Not much in the way of facts, but more of special interest opinions
There does seem to be less pilots willing to work for poverty wages at the regionals, but that doesn't mean less pilots over all.
05-23-2013 | 08:11 AM
#50
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,543
Likes: 0
From: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
By the way, 8,651 new commercials last year-an increase over 2011. Seems like we are still able to produce pilots, even with the ATP rule and regional compensation basically unchanged. Think how many would be coming through the pipeline with even modest gains in favor of pilots.
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