Bloomberg-Pilot Shortage Keeps Majors Worried
07-06-2016, 07:47 AM
#81
MK Ultra Candidate
Joined APC: Feb 2013
Position: Prime Leader of Boko Harumph
Posts: 1,167
Originally Posted by Sliceback
I should have written 'earnings to date, to include cost of education.'
There's always exceptions but that's my estimate of the average career expectation. Daughter's friend, three years post college, is already about $100,000 ahead of a buddy's son that stare flying at the same time. And the engineer is still out earning thecson by about $30,000/yr. Using current average hiring data he's about 7-9 years before he reaches pay parity but he'll be about $300,000 behind in total earnings/pilot license cost. That's 10-12 years since the start of work. But five years later he'll be out earning the average engineer by about $50,000/yr and the income gap will be increasing thereby reducing the total career value shortfall. Using this math I'm coming up with maybe 17-19 yrs to reach the same career value, at which point the current average career earnings looks to be 2x the engineers salary.
There's always exceptions but that's my estimate of the average career expectation. Daughter's friend, three years post college, is already about $100,000 ahead of a buddy's son that stare flying at the same time. And the engineer is still out earning thecson by about $30,000/yr. Using current average hiring data he's about 7-9 years before he reaches pay parity but he'll be about $300,000 behind in total earnings/pilot license cost. That's 10-12 years since the start of work. But five years later he'll be out earning the average engineer by about $50,000/yr and the income gap will be increasing thereby reducing the total career value shortfall. Using this math I'm coming up with maybe 17-19 yrs to reach the same career value, at which point the current average career earnings looks to be 2x the engineers salary.
07-06-2016, 07:57 AM
#82
Retired
Joined APC: Jul 2014
Position: Weekend Warrior
Posts: 18
Expecting to not live on food stamps as a highly trained, skilled, and experienced professional doesn't make millennials entitled, it just means there are other opportunities which pay more, have better benefits, and much better QoL.
Unless you just really, really, really love flying. In which case that's compensation enough, and you'll make it work either way.
I don't think that makes the former entitled and the latter irrational, it's just a recognition that different people value different things, and that divide is especially apparent across generations who have different sets of expectations and experiences.
Unless you just really, really, really love flying. In which case that's compensation enough, and you'll make it work either way.
I don't think that makes the former entitled and the latter irrational, it's just a recognition that different people value different things, and that divide is especially apparent across generations who have different sets of expectations and experiences.
07-06-2016, 08:00 AM
#83
MK Ultra Candidate
Joined APC: Feb 2013
Position: Prime Leader of Boko Harumph
Posts: 1,167
Originally Posted by LRSRanger
Don't forget compounding interest from retirement investment made earlier on in the career progression, and asset appreciation like a home purchased vs renting. I'm convinced there is significant opportunity cost in addition to the spreadsheet pay disparity.
Oh, and don't forget to factor in alimony and child support...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Oh, and don't forget to factor in alimony and child support...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Had an AA guy in the actual, ex mil and 10 year Capt. 3 boys all Ivy League, he said for all intents and purposes he was retirement broke.
07-06-2016, 08:00 AM
#84
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2013
Posts: 10,158
Originally Posted by Sliceback
I should have written 'earnings to date, to include cost of education.'
There's always exceptions but that's my estimate of the average career expectation. Daughter's friend, three years post college, is already about $100,000 ahead of a buddy's son that stare flying at the same time. And the engineer is still out earning thecson by about $30,000/yr. Using current average hiring data he's about 7-9 years before he reaches pay parity but he'll be about $300,000 behind in total earnings/pilot license cost. That's 10-12 years since the start of work. But five years later he'll be out earning the average engineer by about $50,000/yr and the income gap will be increasing thereby reducing the total career value shortfall. Using this math I'm coming up with maybe 17-19 yrs to reach the same career value, at which point the current average career earnings looks to be 2x the engineers salary.
There's always exceptions but that's my estimate of the average career expectation. Daughter's friend, three years post college, is already about $100,000 ahead of a buddy's son that stare flying at the same time. And the engineer is still out earning thecson by about $30,000/yr. Using current average hiring data he's about 7-9 years before he reaches pay parity but he'll be about $300,000 behind in total earnings/pilot license cost. That's 10-12 years since the start of work. But five years later he'll be out earning the average engineer by about $50,000/yr and the income gap will be increasing thereby reducing the total career value shortfall. Using this math I'm coming up with maybe 17-19 yrs to reach the same career value, at which point the current average career earnings looks to be 2x the engineers salary.
Flight Instruction-
Year 1: $37,000 (-$28,000)
Flight Instruction plus airline training:
Combined: $42,000 (-$51,000)
Year 2: $39,000 (-$77,000)
Year 3( Captain Upgrade): $55,000 ($87,000)
Year 4: $74,000 ($76,000)
Year 5 Projected: $79,000 (-$62,000)
And so on. It will take about 4-5 years to match total career earnings. Of course, a pilot who wastes money at ERAU has a much different story as does an engineer who studies at a state school for pennies.
07-06-2016, 08:03 AM
#85
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2013
Posts: 10,158
Originally Posted by ClickClickBoom
Someone understands, the very reason this job had such high compensation levels were the high unstated costs. Away from family during holidays and events and kid stuff. Discount these things at ones own peril. I listen to more marriage woes than I care to, usually from young entrants to the biz, add the young married guy tapping one of the f/a cadre into the mix and it's evident that if you are young, single and mobile it's a great job, but if you are married with kids it's and it's an uphill road that gets steeper with time, peaking when your kids go to high school.
Had an AA guy in the actual, ex mil and 10 year Capt. 3 boys all Ivy League, he said for all intents and purposes he was retirement broke.
Had an AA guy in the actual, ex mil and 10 year Capt. 3 boys all Ivy League, he said for all intents and purposes he was retirement broke.
07-06-2016, 08:58 AM
#86
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2015
Posts: 472
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/whitne...184238565.html
“[Warren] Buffett once said that the two more important decisions you will ever make are who you marry and what career you pick"
“[Warren] Buffett once said that the two more important decisions you will ever make are who you marry and what career you pick"
07-06-2016, 09:38 AM
#87
Banned
Joined APC: Jan 2015
Posts: 571
Originally Posted by ClickClickBoom
Factor in the divorce(s), child support for F/A baby mama's, and the average, throw in multiple home moves and the equation evens out.
07-06-2016, 09:43 AM
#88
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Posts: 233
Engineers get furloughed too. Low oil and gas prices has hurt many engineers in the industry the last year or so, same in the 80s and I think same in the late 60s early 70s. I have a friend laid off, has took another job for less money after three months (lost all seniority and benefits from his old company, had to start over); another who has been working 20 hours per month and having to pay for insurance for some time now. They go through cycles as well.
07-06-2016, 10:25 AM
#89
Runs with scissors
Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: Going to hell in a bucket, but enjoying the ride .
Posts: 7,728
Getting back on topic (upcoming pilot shortage?) how's that Jet Blue Ab Initio pilot training thing going? How many kids have signed up?
Will the other majors have to start a similar type program to train up new kids to fly RJ's? Where are they going to find 30,000 new pilots in the next 20 years?
Will the other majors have to start a similar type program to train up new kids to fly RJ's? Where are they going to find 30,000 new pilots in the next 20 years?
07-06-2016, 10:41 AM
#90
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: Left seat bizjet
Posts: 293
Originally Posted by Timbo
Getting back on topic (upcoming pilot shortage?) how's that Jet Blue Ab Initio pilot training thing going? How many kids have signed up?
Will the other majors have to start a similar type program to train up new kids to fly RJ's? Where are they going to find 30,000 new pilots in the next 20 years?
Will the other majors have to start a similar type program to train up new kids to fly RJ's? Where are they going to find 30,000 new pilots in the next 20 years?
I'll be interested to see how many make it through the program too. I would guess less than 30% of the folks I started ground school with actually finished the program. I went through a community college program.
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