NO BUENO! Sucks guess gonna just have to keep waiting! Thanks for the heads up CATIII

 

Just heard that a new vacancy bid should be coming out in August…hopefully some more hiring...

 

Call me an optimist, but there has to be a reason they are interviewing for people to be interviewers... Seems it would be a waste of time if they weren't planning something sometime before 2017?

Also, in the month of April, on the 767, I would have easily broke guarantee if not for a few schedule adjustments by myself...plus I must have gotten called 4 times during the month for over 75... Did one....

Walls street liked our 1Qt numbers..... And have high hopes for the year.... Even with the changes recently it seems it's still business as planned....

 

Last month's Alpa "Strategic plan overview" say that we'll be adding 1-2 airframes per year for the next 5 years, leading to 50 new hires per year. When our contract becomes amendable in 2015 we should have close to 700 pilots on the seniority list.

 

Yeah, read that a bit ago also....

If that plan does hold, that'll be roughly 80 more by next summer.. For those, like me, mathematically challenged!!!


My only realistic plan is to either be a very junior NEO CPT or a senior 330 FO.. IMO both have their pluses for me personally. And if either works out in the 2017-2020 timeframe I will have considered my first 5-8 years here a success.

 

IMHO, I'd suggest guys think in terms of an average of 6 upgrades and 12 new hires per added airframe. (The actual number is of course determined by the number of block hours, segments, and unproductive layover days required by the schedule.) So if you're thinking about upgrade take the number of guys above you to the bottom captain, currently about 340, then subtract retirements, and divide by 6....that's the number of airframes required. Then guess at how many years to get that many airframes as a net increase. The company has said all along that the 330 deliveries give them flexibility....they can retain the 76s and increase flying, or return 76s and slow the growth to match demand or economic conditions. This is exactly what they've done.

If we add one airframe net per year for the next 3 years that would likely require 18 new captains, and allowing for 24 retirements that would be 42 new captain slots. 12 new hires plus 24 retirements equals 36 new hires. This is a reasonable guestimate for the next three years baring any major marketing change or other driver....that's anyone's guess. Our success, (or a lack thereof), in China may be a wild card, but only time will tell.

A321 deliveries start late 2016 or early 2017 at maybe 4-5 year will speed things up, but if you're number 500 for example, you're probably realistically going to need all of the 321 deliveries to make captain.

And lastly, let's hope that there isn't an acquisition or merger. All bets are off at that point.

 

Well explained captainF.... Seeing how were now up to sen 620 or so, that basically means any newhires can plan to be FOs for upwards of two decades unless we keep most of not all out 767s.

In this industry timing is everything and the guys who got hired in 2009,2010 timed it well, the 2011 and 2012 guys less so, especially 2012... Minimum 10 years to the bottom of the 717 list.

There are literally dozens of under 40 year old captains now, and retirement are about half or less that of the other Legacies.

Truth be told, your last statement may be valid for the younger senior guys on our list, but if you're an older guy hired after 2011, a combined seniority list with American or Delta will mean a much faster upgrade due to massive retirements at those carriers.

 

HAL is my focus, always has been. Ive interviewed twice, last in August of 2012. I received the "we are still interested letter" and still have not received a "Thanks but the requisition you have interviewed under has been filled" letter.

Am I still in the running?? HAL never sent out the "Req closed" letters as rumored this past Decemeber. Please tell me I've still got a chance! Im in my early 40's, 11 years at the regionals, I dont care about the upgrade at HAL, I just want to be a part of it.....

Thank you in advance for the replies!!

 

Good thoughts by everyone... But what everyone needs to realize is things could change in a month or year.... We could announce another big growth spurt, or the opposite..

To predict a new hire is gonna be an FO for 2 decades is a little shortsighted... Especially for a compnay with only 600 pilots to begin with... Ask any of those furloughed guys if they ever thought they would be a widebody captain just a couple years after returning from furlough.

I've got friends pushing 7 years at Delta, and even longer at SWA and United....all still FO's, the Delta guy is still on the 88 maybe could hold 320 depending on base, looking at maybe a 10 yr upgrade into a 717 in maybe DTW... All about perspective.....

 

That's exciting news. Do you think anyone has a chance to get on with HAL if you're from the Mainland and currently have no letter of recommendation on file?