DashAviator

Air Group's preferred business model is to whipsaw Horizon against SkyWest, to keep costs low for their regional feed. Could Alaska sell Horizon to SkyWest? Yes... but this is unlikely to happen as long as we've got $1B worth of Q400's on the property. Once Horizon becomes an all-jet regional (or mostly all-jet), a sale becomes more likely.

Klsytakesit

There is no outsourcing of Horizon flying. All of the flying is Alaska Airlines inc. The route planners at Alaska Airlines decide who flys what. They decide if it will be mainline 737/A320 or if it will be regional feed. They also decide which regional feed. Skywest or Horizon. They have publicly stated that most midcon and east coast regional flying will be done by Skywest as well as most long stage length west coast flying. They are keeping Horizon mostly on the west coast north/south flying as Horizon cannot recover in an irop that occurs off the west coast. That is what Alaska Airlines is saying publicly. What Horizon is telling there employees may be different. It appears that it is Alaska Airlines intent to have a nearly equal balance in jet flying between Horizon and Skywest for the long term.

rickair7777

I'm pretty sure SKW wouldn't take Q's if AAG gave them away. They considered and rejected that airframe back in the day.

They have also been burned by purchasing established regionals, they are 0 for 2 on that. I seriously doubt they'd touch QX unless they had some amazingly good terms... terms you guys probably shouldn't give them.

snackysmores

I've said it many times over the years, Alaska will not allow Skywest to be the sole provider of their feed and have a monopoly. There must always be competition for them to keep costs low. We aren't going anywhere.

fenix1

The industry-wide consensus is that more flying will be done by wholly-owned regionals (and less by contract regionals) with AA leading the way, DL hot on their heels and UA exploring but currently somewhat hamstrung in making it happen. What is fundamentally different about AS's business model/vision/strategy - especially after acquiring Virgin - that would lead to AS selling their regional entity (QX), rather than making it more robust? Why would AS be committed to buying 30 E175's (with options for 30-ish more) if there was a chance they'd sell QX & get out of the wholly-owned regional business?

Comair is historical context that the wholly-owned regionals and their parents companies both keep in mind on some level, but the future isn't the past and - looking ahead - I struggle with the idea that AS would ever sell QX. Are the internal dynamics between AS & QX really THAT jacked up?

Also, rather than acquire another regional, isn't OO more likely to purchase more E175's to replace all the CRJ-200's? (Or is OO waiting until UA's check for ExpressJet is cashed to do this?...)

amcnd

QX will always be around AS wouldn’t want to get burned if OO had trouble.. with that being said. QX will never be 500 aircraft like OO. I can see about 30-45 E175’s. All based off staffing and attrition.. the problem with all regionals now is they are hiring 21-28 year olds. The industry is way to good for them to stay at a regional. If QX could find more “lifers” to replace the ones they have then they could sustain more then 30 aircraft in the he future..

Excargodog

With "life" now ending at 65 rather than 60, there is actually more of a payback to make the transition and become once again low man on the totem pole for a few years than there once was. Future "lifers" might be more people the majors simply don't want or at least find less desirable, rather than just fifty something year olds content to be the most senior person with the best schedule in the domicile they want with insufficient flying career left to justify the personal cost of making the jump. The extra five years can make a serious difference.

skruts

What about someone with 1000+ hours of Part 135 jet time (Midsize Cabin jet) who comes to QX on the Q? Do you think the 135 jet time would help negate some of that or are majors really looking for 121 jet time specifically?

Blackhawk

I'm not sure, but I think those pilots leaving may have more to do with them getting another type. The majors don't seem to like captains who have been in their seat too long. New type ratings seems to help them get traction in hiring.

fivebyfive

So very true. And so very obvious. How in the love of god did this pilot group cowar down so far for the last CBA? They had Tilden on the ropes.