Phteven

Is it opposition to these routes getting farmed out to Skywest or farmed out at all? The majority of the E175's on the property now and in the next five years will be replacing CRJ's and Q400's anyway so it isn't like there is monumental growth in Alaska's small lift market (though 17 over six years is still no small number), but it's the routes some of these are flying that seem like they would be cause for concern. It makes sense when the regional operator(s) fly to Seattle from Pullman...not so much from Austin.

snackysmores

From what I've heard it sounds like Alaska has until the end of this year to decide if they want to shut us down or not. It takes a little over a year to get a new training department all set up so if the company tries to stall things out past then I think the answer is clear that we aren't getting the flying...

Alaska Error Group is dumb but not THAT dumb, they know if they announce we aren't getting the flying the company is doomed because every junior FO and junior CA will jump ship, and they won't be able to staff the airline for an entire YEAR before the Q's get parked. It's not like any other airline can walk in and start flying Seattle to Wenatchee, Yakima, Walla Walla etc. without hemorrhaging cash in the process. It would kill Alaska's bottom line.

So we'll see what AS does, hopefully they realize how valuable we are. Or they can Comair us and spend $5 trying save $1, whatever.

casey135

I've been saying from the beginning, if Delta wanted to shut AS Down, they'd just offer the next 3 classes to anyone with QX on there resume, take 300 of 600ish over 3 months of Alaska's feed, horizon closes on Friday and Alaska folds the following Wed

snackysmores

Hell, they could do the same to the Alaska pilots and they'd probably bail too.

casey135

But QX pilots wouldn't think 2x because of wages....pure economics

casey135

They could take a QX capt and cost AAG 2 training costs.

snackysmores

Even if we do get the jet flying all the junior bros will be stuck on the Q, I can just imagine what a 4 day trip will be like:

PDX - SEA
SEA - PDX
PDX - GEG
GEG - PDX
PDX - SEA
SEA - PSC (or insert sh**ty overnight location here)

block time: 4 hours, 12 hour duty, 10 hour overnight

rinse and repeat

Phteven

I'm rather content with how things are playing out. I don't know if the union is intentionally stalling, but it's feeling like a game of chicken. We are way behind on meeting their unrealistic timeline for getting a TA by the end of the year. I think he are supposed to have just finished voting (ha!). We don't even know what we are voting on, let alone when!

I don't see any possible way they could stretch this past the end of January without it being clear that they are coming here if that is their intention already, and even that is very late.

I think it would it go down like it has at RAH if they announced we're shrinking, except with no $40 carrot for sucker new-hires. Maybe 50 (less than a year SEA and PDX FOs) would bail right away and many more would widen their search from their ideal 2-4 to anywhere better than a regional. Nonetheless, they would have a consistent net loss of pilots and no way of convincing anyone other than 1500 hr CFI's living under a rock to sign up.

cactusflyer

Alaska also has a vested interest in keeping Horizon around to enable their financial shenanigans.

The "28% more expensive than Skywest" and recent "Alaska got zero return on a billion-dollar investment in QX" claims can be made to work on paper because AAG can (and probably does) shift money around between various divisions to make things look better for investors and to give management an edge in contract negotiations.

Plus, keeping QX around (especially if we fly the jets at Q400 rates) also gives AAG ammunition to use against Skywest when their contract becomes amenable in the next few years and they try and pass on the cost of their new pilot contract to the mainline carriers.

Phteven

If we were in a three sibling rivalry situation like PSA/Piedmont/Envoy then maybe there would be more to legitimately be worried about, but we're not so quickly and easily replaceable. This is from page one of the playbook - use us against Skywest, use Skywest against us.

What actually is happening here right now though is a game of management musical chairs, which is quite interesting.