They have no choice. JetBlue is currently unable to fill a pool and about 30% of those offered a job either decline or are no-shows to class. Thus, job offers are being made to many pilots during the interviews. Right now we are losing junior pilots to legacy recall, FDX, UPS, and SWA at nearly the same rate we hire and train pilots.

Apparently the the number of pilots that are interested in a 10-15 year upgrade to A320 Captain is declining rapidly. (Go figure.) BTW, a 10-15 year upgrade time assumes JB takes all 200 A320 orders/options and there is Captain attrition; without significant Captain attrition the most junior 320 Captain is already on the property. Here's the math in public: 200 A320's times six Captains per aircraft = 1200 A320 Captains sometime in the future. The most junior JetBlue pilot is currently around seniority 1800 and we take delivery of our 100th A320 this month. Given JetBlue's recent economic performance, growth to 200 A320's remains uncertain.

One look at the 190 CA and FO pay rates, and the likelihood of a career on the 190, many pilots feel they are better off where they are while awaiting the call from another airline.

Good luck to all.

 

With 200 A-320's on property or ordered and staffing at 7 crews per aircraft, that means almost 1400-1500 A-320 CA's total. Put another way... the last $120,000 Captain is on the property right now. I'd wait for either another call...or for B6 to increase their pay. (Fat Chance for A-320 CA's)

Marty!

 

Don't know where you're getting your info. I flew with one of the senior guys doing analysis on upgrades and the info he showed me had A320 upgrade at about 6 years (with options). Without options, things are definitely uglier.

To say the most junion captain is already on the property makes absolutely no sense. That would mean at some point growth stops. While growth isn't what it was last year, it's still at a decent rate and will continue.

 

Simple. Combine ALL the current A320 orders and options and then add a few dozen make-believe additional aircraft to round things off to a nice round 200. Multiply the 200 aircraft by the staffing, which ranges from 6 to 7 Captains per aircraft. Let's be optimistic and use 7. Thus: 200x7=1400.

We are currently at seniority number 1800. If you think anybody hired today will be upgrading to the 320 in six years I would like to have some of what you are smoking.

For what its worth, the same thing happened to me as a JB new-hire. "They" kept saying that upgrades were 6 months to 9 months. And that was true...for pilots hired 9 months prior to me. A few of us in the back of the room calculated our upgrades would take 2 years (this was back in '03) and we were correct within a month (we upgraded after 25 months in '05). Our math: we had ~40 A320's and would upgrade when we hit ~80 aircraft. With the 190 things are a bit more complicated but not much. With the HUGE pay difference between the fleets it is a reasonable assumption that most 190 CA's will move to the 320 at some point, and that point is certainly before any of today's new-hires can hold 320 CA.

And no, growth does not have to stop to extend 320 upgrades way into the future when there are few retirements. A pilot hired today probably can expect upgrade to the 190 within six years, but a 320 slot is far beyond that. When we had 10 airplanes and added 10 the next year, things moved quickly. When one has 100 aircraft and adds 15 (but sells 5 for a net of 10) it is only 10% growth.

In a company with clear delivery schedules and few retirements the upgrade math is pretty simple: just remember that the fences come down in October so we will start to see 190 CA's moving to the left seat of the 320 above the 320 F/O's and 320 F/O's to 190 CA's above the 190 F/O's. A typical career progression will soon consist of 190 F/O, 320 F/O, 190 CA, and then (maybe) 320 CA.

The big issue is not when one can 'upgrade' but rather when one can 'upgrade' to the 320 since 190 CA pay is less than F/O narrowbody pay at most legacies/SWA/FDX/UPS. And for many pilots that understand seniority that makes JetBlue unattractive.

 

I interviewed on the 9th, got my phase 1 email on the 14th. Still waiting for a class date.

Does anyone know how often they are running classes, and when the next one is after the 28th class?

 

obviously this is your first airline and you have no idea how things work. To say that since there are 1800 pilots on property and all will be upgrading to a320 capt and no one getting hired now will upgrade within 10-15years is just moronic.... There are probably plenty of pilots right now who choose not to upgrade based on location days off whatever plus management pilots plus people leaving for other airlines plus recalled furloughed pilots you name it. there are at least a hundred different reason why saying you should not expect an a320 upgrade is just wrong. Why be so pessimistic. I would say based on everything that has happened or what may happen no one knows for sure and to assume any thing just makes and ass out of yourself.....freaken idiot

 

Wrong. Nice try.

LOL. Let me guess...you are very junior and the truth is scary?

Edit: Sorry, I just re-read the thread. You haven't even started yet and you are callling names and telling us how things are at JB? Now that is funny...and probably a good indication of the caliber of folks we are attracting these days. Good luck on that 320 upgrade. LOL.

 

I'm a fan of JB, and know a lot of great people there... However, bluechunks has some valid points. That is exactly why the folks there are pushing hard for better 190 rates...and I think they'll seem some improvement soon. (outside looking in speculation...I know...)

The pressure points are not flight room chatter, but attrition. Guys ARE leaving for other places, and some guys are skipping out on going to class when the calls come in. I think the folks in HR know they have to sweeten the pot to continue to attract the caliber of folks they've drawn in the past.

With CAL, DAL, UPS, and SWA hiring...I wouln't call it a GREAT market for pilots but its better than anything we've seen the last 4 - 5 years. We'll see if Blue gets a little more lucrative for its junior guys here in the next few months...

 

The problem with non-Union carriers is that they can sweeten the pot...temporarily. Without a contract, what's to stop them from making changes in the other direction any time they want. A FedEx guy once told me the biggest impetus in getting a Union on the property was that the policy manual was in a loose leaf binder. They could change ANYTHING just by printing up one page and putting in the mailboxes.

 

I have to respectfully disagree blue.

In my opinion it is irresponsible to make predictions about any aviation business further than 2 or 3 years into the future. There are way to many vaiables to say that the upgrade time for todays newhires is tied to a simple formula. Something as simple as another change in the growth rate of the company could wildly throw off your numbers, and I think it is fair to say the company will continue to adjust its growth rate as it sees fit.

I do agree with you that as things stand now the 320 upgrades will be very slow, but we should not sit back and assume that the company will remain as it is now.......the only constant in this business is change.