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-   -   Why I'm voting Yes (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/jetblue/114759-why-im-voting-yes.html)

Slaphappy 07-04-2018 11:09 PM


Originally Posted by Sun Tzu (Post 2627500)
It's already beginning to affect the airline sector.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...ays-2018-07-03

"The possibility that the current trade dispute between the U.S. and its global partners could become something bigger is problematic for the industry’s top line given how closely correlated it is to imports and exports of goods and services,” Linenberg wrote in a note to clients. “Furthermore, the growing trade dispute may cause U.S. companies to reconsider their [capital expenditure] and employment plans, which would adversely impact corporate travel.”


Trump is clueless and vindictive. If he expands this trade war into the auto sector: Brace for impact.

I'm voting Yes. A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush. But that is just my opinion and everyone should weigh the pros and cons of everything and make their own informed decision.


-Sun Tzu

As said before a few opeds don't supercede economic data. The data disagrees, gdp projections have be revised upward past 4%. For the rest of the year. It's hardly a trade war when the retaliation is so week.

Flytolive 07-05-2018 03:36 AM


Originally Posted by Slaphappy (Post 2628018)
The data disagrees, gdp projections have be revised upward past 4%. For the rest of the year. It's hardly a trade war when the retaliation is so week.

At what 'data' are you looking? You must be looking at quarterly numbers that vary seasonally because no annual forecasts have the US GDP > 3% even with the exploding debt to GDP ratio.

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-forecast.htm

http://www.oecd.org/media/2016-1/Eco...2_v3_press.png

Bozo the pilot 07-05-2018 06:18 AM


Originally Posted by Flytolive (Post 2628043)
At what 'data' are you looking? You must be looking at quarterly numbers that vary seasonally because no annual forecasts have the US GDP > 3% even with the exploding debt to GDP ratio.

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-forecast.htm

http://www.oecd.org/media/2016-1/Eco...2_v3_press.png

I like charts with colors :D

benzoate 07-05-2018 06:47 AM


Originally Posted by Bozo the pilot (Post 2628109)
I like charts with colors :D

I like big boobs. :cool:

CaptCoolHand 07-05-2018 07:02 AM


Originally Posted by benzoate (Post 2628124)
I like big boobs. :cool:

poundmetoo

Slaphappy 07-05-2018 10:22 AM


Originally Posted by Flytolive (Post 2628043)
At what 'data' are you looking? You must be looking at quarterly numbers that vary seasonally because no annual forecasts have the US GDP > 3% even with the exploding debt to GDP ratio.

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-forecast.htm

http://www.oecd.org/media/2016-1/Eco...2_v3_press.png

Atlanta Fed GDP model forecasts 5.4% growth in the first quarter - Business Insider

The Federal reserve bank in Atlanta is forecasting 5.7% growth.

Slaphappy 07-05-2018 10:22 AM

The labor department today said that there are more jobs than workers.

embraerjetpilot 07-05-2018 10:33 AM


Originally Posted by Slaphappy (Post 2628293)
The labor department today said that there are more jobs than workers.

Sadly, most of them won’t feed and shelter a family of four

Flytolive 07-05-2018 11:26 AM


Originally Posted by Slaphappy (Post 2628291)
The Federal reserve bank in Atlanta is forecasting 5.7% growth.

First, the Atlanta Fed was forecasting 5.4% not 5.7% and it is not an annual rate, but for for Q1 2018. Guess what? That was last quarter and the it turned out to be 2.2%. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/30/seco...-2018-gdp.html

Your article was from February, and if you had actually read it you would have seen that the prediction was a complete outlier.

So, much like Trump you don't let the facts stand in the way of a good story. That is otherwise known as complete and utter BS, but nice try.

hilltopflyer 07-05-2018 11:28 AM


Originally Posted by embraerjetpilot (Post 2628297)
Sadly, most of them won’t feed and shelter a family of four

It’s not minimums wage responsibility to feed a family of four. If people applied themselves they wouldn’t have to have a minimum wage job when they had a family of four. I don’t mind supplementing people who have the family of four and have a minimum wage job. At least they are trying to work for a living and not relying on the government.

Bozo the pilot 07-05-2018 12:08 PM


Originally Posted by embraerjetpilot (Post 2628297)
Sadly, most of them won’t feed and shelter a family of four

How much you wanna pay for a burger?

Std Deviation 07-05-2018 01:08 PM


Originally Posted by Bozo the pilot (Post 2628366)
How much you wanna pay for a burger?

The same can be said of getting rid of undocumented agricultural labor. How much you want to pay for an avocado, bottle of wine, tomato, etc.?
Or construction here in TX.

queue 07-05-2018 01:13 PM


Originally Posted by Std Deviation (Post 2628405)
The same can be said of getting rid of undocumented agricultural labor. How much you want to pay for an avocado, bottle of wine, tomato, etc.?
Or construction here in TX.


Not specifically addressing your statement, but....


So by letting people in through negligence in not enforcing the LAW, aren't we creating a permanent underclass of disposable workers? How is this even moral to anyone? Isn't the whole purpose of LEGAL immigration to ensure those people are properly matriculated into the system so they pay taxes (all taxes) like you and me while getting a fair shot at every service their taxes pay for?

This communique is for entertainment purposes only. It does not implicitly or explicitly acknowledge employment with any air carrier nor is any relationship implied. This communique does not represent the opinions or policies of ALPA or JB ALPA and does not represent the collective pilot group, ALPA, nor does it imply collective bargaining, advocacy, or workforce actions intended to disrupt operations.

amcflyboy 07-05-2018 01:55 PM


Originally Posted by BunkerF16 (Post 2626114)
What I know Hyper is that there are too many "Just happy to be here", "It's better than what we had/where I came from", "Gee, what happens if the economy collapses" cowards at this company for there to have enough unity for us to stick together to get a deal we really deserve.


The company knows this. They know they can offer a below average contract to this pilot group and a majority will gobble it up like a hobo on a ham sandwich.

Bunker, we are here for one reason...because of NO UNITY. A lot of guys did not follow MEC guidance, and continued picking up RSA’s, VDA’s, etc. It is our fault that we are here, hence the crap leverage the NC had in negotiations.

Do you really think we will make substantial gains in TA2? Are you willing to wait two years minimum for a TA2 with MAYBE 10-15% gains? Do you really think we will get released at an impasse? I’ll give you a hint....look at Frontier. Asked to be released three times, denied all three times. Sitting there and accusing people of “just being happy to be here” is a false dilemma, on your part. As soon as the Labor Dispute was over, guys started doing SET and stand up PA’s, as if they missed it.

We are here because of us. Not because of JB or because of the MEC. Look at what we have to work with. This is negotiating. You win some and lose some. JB has also a right to keep the shareholders happy. Its business, not emotions.

Slaphappy 07-05-2018 02:09 PM


Originally Posted by Std Deviation (Post 2628405)
The same can be said of getting rid of undocumented agricultural labor. How much you want to pay for an avocado, bottle of wine, tomato, etc.?
Or construction here in TX.

Probably not much more than what europe pays for things using legal labor instead of enabling Illegal immigration.

Slaphappy 07-05-2018 02:10 PM


Originally Posted by embraerjetpilot (Post 2628297)
Sadly, most of them won’t feed and shelter a family of four

based on what?
It's funny on hearing the news that there are more jobs than workers and you somehow find a way to make it bad. You know that situation leads to higher wages right?

Slaphappy 07-05-2018 02:13 PM


Originally Posted by Flytolive (Post 2628341)
First, the Atlanta Fed was forecasting 5.4% not 5.7% and it is not an annual rate, but for for Q1 2018. Guess what? That was last quarter and the it turned out to be 2.2%. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/30/seco...-2018-gdp.html

Your article was from February, and if you had actually read it you would have seen that the prediction was a complete outlier.

So, much like Trump you don't let the facts stand in the way of a good story. That is otherwise known as complete and utter BS, but nice try.

False,

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/atlant...2-201805311512

The atlanta Fed has made these predictions for later in the year. Their q2 forcast is 4.7. We'll see how that plays out in the next few days.

They aren't the only ones.

Bozo the pilot 07-05-2018 02:31 PM


Originally Posted by Std Deviation (Post 2628405)
The same can be said of getting rid of undocumented agricultural labor. How much you want to pay for an avocado, bottle of wine, tomato, etc.?
Or construction here in TX.

Whatever it costs to get them on the grid.

Flytolive 07-05-2018 06:35 PM


Originally Posted by Slaphappy (Post 2628468)
False

I agree the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates have been proven false. In Q1 2018 it predicted 5.4% GDP growth and the ended up being only 2.2%. Obviously, the model is worthless. The consensus estimate for 2018 is less than 3% even with soaring debt.

Bluedriver 07-06-2018 05:01 AM


Originally Posted by hilltopflyer (Post 2628345)
It’s not minimums wage responsibility to feed a family of four. If people applied themselves they wouldn’t have to have a minimum wage job when they had a family of four. I don’t mind supplementing people who have the family of four and have a minimum wage job. At least they are trying to work for a living and not relying on the government.

I think he is saying that just because there are jobs doesn't mean there are near enough GOOD jobs available.

Bluedriver 07-06-2018 05:04 AM


Originally Posted by Bozo the pilot (Post 2628366)
How much you wanna pay for a burger?

How good is the burger? I do like burgers.

seekingblue 07-06-2018 12:12 PM

I voted yes.


Right choice for me and my family.

hyperboy 07-07-2018 04:51 PM


Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2628799)
I think he is saying that just because there are jobs doesn't mean there are near enough GOOD jobs available.

I have always wondered what good jobs meant?

Bluedriver 07-08-2018 06:51 AM


Originally Posted by hyperboy (Post 2629786)
I have always wondered what good jobs meant?

Jobs that are not at or near minimum wage with no benefits?

CaptCoolHand 07-08-2018 06:57 AM


Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2630095)
Jobs that are not at or near minimum wage with no benefits?

Wait you mean jobs that require education and effort to obtain?

Jobs that require a skill set, Talent, knowledge, or more that the ability to walk, breathe and transfer a widget from spot A to spot B?

Bluedriver 07-08-2018 08:01 AM


Originally Posted by CaptCoolHand (Post 2630102)
Wait you mean jobs that require education and effort to obtain?

Jobs that require a skill set, Talent, knowledge, or more that the ability to walk, breathe and transfer a widget from spot A to spot B?

Who are you arguing with? I simply said just because there are lots of jobs available doesn't mean there are lots of good jobs available.

CaptCoolHand 07-08-2018 08:20 AM

Not arguing with you lol.

Just a response to the MSNBC talking point.

If you have a job that can’t support a family of four maybe you should have thought about your predicament before you decided to procreate?

Bluedriver 07-08-2018 08:24 AM


Originally Posted by CaptCoolHand (Post 2630182)
Not arguing with you lol.

Just a response to the MSNBC talking point.

If you have a job that can’t support a family of four maybe you should have thought about your predicament before you decided to procreate?

Ok, but the vast majority of jobs available are low wage service industry or similar jobs. All 300 million of us could go to University to be Rocket Surgeons, but if the majority of the jobs are hotel, shopping mall and fast food, what good would that do?

CaptCoolHand 07-08-2018 08:33 AM


Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2630191)
Ok, but the vast majority of jobs available are low wage service industry or similar jobs. All 300 million of us could go to University to be Rocket Surgeons, but if the majority of the jobs are hotel, shopping mall and fast food, what good would that do?

Well if you’re smart enough to do rocket surgery. You’ll probably be able to find work that can support your family. You adapt to the situation. Make hard choices. But I’m quite sure, there are no rocket surgery capable individuals making burger flipper wages.

If we went pilotless tomorrow why would you do? I know my family wouldn’t starve.

Bluedriver 07-08-2018 08:35 AM


Originally Posted by CaptCoolHand (Post 2630199)
Well if you’re smart enough to do rocket surgery. You’ll probably be able to find work that can support your family. You adapt to the situation. Make hard choices. But I’m quite sure, there are no rocket surgery capable individuals making burger flipper wages.

If we went pilotless tomorrow why would you do? I know my family wouldn’t starve.

Great. So all 300 million get trained for other high paying jobs, but if the vast majority of the jobs AVAILABLE are low wage jobs, then what?

CaptCoolHand 07-08-2018 09:51 AM


Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2630202)
Great. So all 300 million get trained for other high paying jobs, but if the vast majority of the jobs AVAILABLE are low wage jobs, then what?

gimme a break... :rolleyes:

when we run into that problem there won't be a need for jobs. because we'll all be living off of space credits. everyone will have a job and a purpose. it'll be magical.

Bluedriver 07-08-2018 10:07 AM


Originally Posted by CaptCoolHand (Post 2630265)
gimme a break... :rolleyes:

when we run into that problem there won't be a need for jobs. because we'll all be living off of space credits. everyone will have a job and a purpose. it'll be magical.

You don't think there are many highly qualified and educated people right now under-employed? I do. Lots of people have good educations but are unable to find "good" jobs.

TransWorld 07-08-2018 11:57 AM


Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2630279)
You don't think there are many highly qualified and educated people right now under-employed? I do. Lots of people have good educations but are unable to find "good" jobs.

Like all those pilots with a 4 year degree, clean record, and 1500 hours flipping hamburgers at McD that cannot get a regional to give them the time of day? :D

Bluedriver 07-08-2018 03:01 PM


Originally Posted by TransWorld (Post 2630357)
Like all those pilots with a 4 year degree, clean record, and 1500 hours flipping hamburgers at McD that cannot get a regional to give them the time of day? :D

Yeah those. Or maybe the millions of people outside aviation.

Bozo the pilot 07-09-2018 06:16 AM


Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2630489)
Yeah those. Or maybe the millions of people outside aviation.

You clearly have the cures to society's ills. Why do you waste your time on the likes of us BD? ;)

Bluedriver 07-09-2018 06:22 AM


Originally Posted by Bozo the pilot (Post 2630815)
You clearly have the cures to society's ills. Why do you waste your time on the likes of us BD? ;)

It's funny someone as opinionated as you is calling out someone else for being opinionated.

I know, I know, vote YES.

Bozo the pilot 07-09-2018 06:25 AM


Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2630824)
It's funny someone as opinionated as you is calling out someone else for being opinionated.

I know, I know, vote YES.

I dont recall advising anyone on their vote, but operate as you will BD.
I am funny, I know. Thanks for that.:)

Slaphappy 07-10-2018 06:51 PM


Originally Posted by Flytolive (Post 2628633)
I agree the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates have been proven false. In Q1 2018 it predicted 5.4% GDP growth and the ended up being only 2.2%. Obviously, the model is worthless. The consensus estimate for 2018 is less than 3% even with soaring debt.

False again
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/15/gold...dp-growth.html

Even Goldman sachs now think gdp will be above 4% for q2.

queue 07-11-2018 06:25 PM


Originally Posted by Bluedriver (Post 2630191)
Ok, but the vast majority of jobs available are low wage service industry or similar jobs. All 300 million of us could go to University to be Rocket Surgeons, but if the majority of the jobs are hotel, shopping mall and fast food, what good would that do?

The limited mindset of the American leftist. How about this... get an education, go to trade school, self educate...

Then START YOUR OWN NON-SERVICE sector job. No one is stopping them. There are infinite possibilities. Why depend on others?

Those people who can't make money have only themselves to blame.

This communique is for entertainment purposes only. It does not implicitly or explicitly acknowledge employment with any air carrier nor is any relationship implied. This communique does not represent the opinions or policies of ALPA or JB ALPA and does not represent the collective pilot group, ALPA, nor does it imply collective bargaining, advocacy, or workforce actions intended to disrupt operations.

Bluedriver 07-12-2018 06:05 AM


Originally Posted by queue (Post 2632846)
The limited mindset of the American leftist. How about this... get an education, go to trade school, self educate...

Then START YOUR OWN NON-SERVICE sector job. No one is stopping them. There are infinite possibilities. Why depend on others?

Those people who can't make money have only themselves to blame.

This communique is for entertainment purposes only. It does not implicitly or explicitly acknowledge employment with any air carrier nor is any relationship implied. This communique does not represent the opinions or policies of ALPA or JB ALPA and does not represent the collective pilot group, ALPA, nor does it imply collective bargaining, advocacy, or workforce actions intended to disrupt operations.

Yep, millions start a new business... What's the statistical success rate of a new business?

Whats the safety net you propose that will help with housing and food for their family for the very high percentage of start-ups that fail after they sink their life savings into their "swing for the fences"?

In our healthcare system, how is a new business startup going to provide/fund healthcare for his/her family on the individual market during the very lean start-up years?

Sorry, we are all entitled to our "opinion". But I think it's obvious that the majority of jobs available are not "good" jobs, no matter how educated the average American is and starting your own "start-up" is not a practical solution for the masses for a multitude of reasons.

Possible yes, practical for the masses, nope.


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