Sun Tzu

Trump’s trade war policies are going to push us into a recession and this will be the best deal we will see for quite a while.
If this TA gets voted down, the company will be able to withdraw their offer and then we are negotiating in a much worse economic climate. To draw out talks and go back to the drawing board for just marginal improvements is foolish, in my opinion.

Not only could the company lower their monetary stance, but the following will also happen if we drag this out:

• We will still have a healthcare plan that’s outside of a CBA. Yes, this plan still stinks, but I would rather have a lousy health care plan within the CBA than outside of it during an economic downturn.
• We will not have scope codified in a CBA.
• We will not have 15% 401k match.

I'm taking the deal. A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.

Here are some facts:

• Oil is up 45% since Trump took office.
• Iowa pork producers are on track to lose over $500 million this year.
• Harley Davidson is moving production from Kansas and Wisconsin to overseas factories to get around tariff retaliations imposed by other nations. Polaris (Indian motorcycles, snow mobiles, etc) is following suit.
• Next up, Trump is going to go full-blown trade war in the auto sector. (Brace for impact)
• Bourbon distillers are readying for 25% tariffs slapped onto their products.
• Kentucky dairy farmers are selling out and closing down.
• Wisconsin cheese makers aren’t sure how they’re going to make up the lost sales.

The economic recovery and bull market which followed the 2008 meltdown was stretched and getting really long in the tooth by any measure. Inflation is picking up and interest rates have started to creep up. Then Trump decides on a full-blown trade war, which nobody wins.

The deal on the table is good enough, for now. I'm taking the money. Trump is clueless and vindictive and we are all gonna pay dearly for it. This is just my opinion and obviously not everybody will see things this way. Everybody needs to make their own informed decision. I’m voting Yes.


In Unity,


Sun Tzu

PS I’m not on blue pilots but if anyone wants to copy and paste it there, feel free.

PPS No, I’m not a “company plant" who just joined this board to get this so-so deal to pass. I’m just a dork who has way too much time on his hands and spends it reading about cheese farmers in Wisconsin.

PasserOGas

Hey!

Wow, all that sounds scary. Knowing the future must be quite a burden.

I will vote yes as well if you can answer one question for me.

When will we ever have this much leverage again? Will the company still need a new fleet plan after the great atomic war/robot takeover?

Sun Tzu

Everyone should make their own decision based on thoughtful research and analysis. I've come to my conclusion and posted my reasoning behind it.

schwa

Though I agree that there's some economic risk in dragging this out further, and that a recession is due, you've probably lost just about everyone at "Trump". Why make it political? In the short-term, the economy is an animal all itself. The use of past, current or future presidents to explain it is nothing but propaganda.

And continue with 67 more hamster wheel posts...

Southerner

I don't think he is making it political. He's stating facts, and Trump happens to be the president. The future is quite uncertain in the face of all of these tariffs, etc. That's not good for markets or the economy.

Southerner

We HAD leverage, and it got us a pretty good deal. If we vote this down, we will no longer have leverage, and it will like be 12-18 months before we see another deal. If the economy takes a nose-dive during that time, our leverage becomes even weaker. So I think there is something to his perspective.

Is it industry leading in all categories? No, but that wasn't ever going to happen. That's not how any of this works.

hilltopflyer

We will still have leverage form the outside. This pilot group won’t have any unless it gets voted down overwhelmingly. But from the outside you still have the downgrade, the fleet plan and a few other things the company needs to plan for. The 2019 balance sheet has to be done in a few months and they need to have the orders on there for 2020. There is still quite a bit of pressure.

BeatNavy

You serious south? No leverage? I know you lanyardless guys have some comprehension issues, so let’s rehash what leverage we have, and what leverage we lost:

What we have:
-Wall Street downgrade isn’t going anywhere
-Jaime Baker and friends...
-Operation that’s in the toilet with people still not helping out (except guys like you) bc they are unhappy with this TA. This TA won’t completely fix it when it passes, bc a large number were burned and expected market rate
-fleet review really needs a pilot contract to be complete and aircraft ordered, or at least flown
-economy and pilot contract landscape are still going up...by Jan 1st we will be even further behind our peers (hint: thats leverage)
-if this is voted down, that shows we are collectively not willing to work for less and accept a lagging contract. (another hint: that’s leverage)
-unity: some unity is lost due to the divisiveness this has caused....but fear not. We all want the same thing (well most of us), and that is to be compensated in line with our peers. We are united in that way. If 50.01% of us vote this down, more of us are united demanding more than not. That’s a good thing. Lanyardless guys like you have no unity anyway and don’t listen to the union (thanks for that again by the way).

What we lost: summer. Who cares? Winter is right around the corner. I had pairing changes on all trips except 2 between January and May. 2 pairings were normal. The rest had B-H behind them. Our operation is so effed we don’t need a heavy travel season to cause an irop or other operational issues where pilots can help out.

Southerner

No unity? I'm not the one on here trashing our elected representatives who brought us a market rate deal. I have tremendous respect for them. Not choosing to wear a lanyard is MY choice, and has no relationship to my support for the union. YOU interpret it that way, and that's fine. It is absolutely your right to be incorrect.

BeatNavy

I have been highlighting the pitfalls of this TA...not the NC, who I happen to engage with and fully support. They got the best they could with what they had to work with (lanyardless/no-unity people here, and JB management).

You’re right. It’s your choice to not listen to the one thing our union told us shows unity to the company and their union busting firm F&H...the lanyard.