Why I'm voting Yes
 

Trump’s trade war policies are going to push us into a recession and this will be the best deal we will see for quite a while.
If this TA gets voted down, the company will be able to withdraw their offer and then we are negotiating in a much worse economic climate. To draw out talks and go back to the drawing board for just marginal improvements is foolish, in my opinion.

Not only could the company lower their monetary stance, but the following will also happen if we drag this out:

• We will still have a healthcare plan that’s outside of a CBA. Yes, this plan still stinks, but I would rather have a lousy health care plan within the CBA than outside of it during an economic downturn.
• We will not have scope codified in a CBA.
• We will not have 15% 401k match.

I'm taking the deal. A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.

Here are some facts:

• Oil is up 45% since Trump took office.
• Iowa pork producers are on track to lose over $500 million this year.
• Harley Davidson is moving production from Kansas and Wisconsin to overseas factories to get around tariff retaliations imposed by other nations. Polaris (Indian motorcycles, snow mobiles, etc) is following suit.
• Next up, Trump is going to go full-blown trade war in the auto sector. (Brace for impact)
• Bourbon distillers are readying for 25% tariffs slapped onto their products.
• Kentucky dairy farmers are selling out and closing down.
• Wisconsin cheese makers aren’t sure how they’re going to make up the lost sales.

The economic recovery and bull market which followed the 2008 meltdown was stretched and getting really long in the tooth by any measure. Inflation is picking up and interest rates have started to creep up. Then Trump decides on a full-blown trade war, which nobody wins.

The deal on the table is good enough, for now. I'm taking the money. Trump is clueless and vindictive and we are all gonna pay dearly for it. This is just my opinion and obviously not everybody will see things this way. Everybody needs to make their own informed decision. I’m voting Yes.


In Unity,


Sun Tzu

PS I’m not on blue pilots but if anyone wants to copy and paste it there, feel free.

PPS No, I’m not a “company plant" who just joined this board to get this so-so deal to pass. I’m just a dork who has way too much time on his hands and spends it reading about cheese farmers in Wisconsin.

Hey!

Wow, all that sounds scary. Knowing the future must be quite a burden.

I will vote yes as well if you can answer one question for me.

When will we ever have this much leverage again? Will the company still need a new fleet plan after the great atomic war/robot takeover?

Everyone should make their own decision based on thoughtful research and analysis. I've come to my conclusion and posted my reasoning behind it.

Though I agree that there's some economic risk in dragging this out further, and that a recession is due, you've probably lost just about everyone at "Trump". Why make it political? In the short-term, the economy is an animal all itself. The use of past, current or future presidents to explain it is nothing but propaganda.

And continue with 67 more hamster wheel posts...

I don't think he is making it political. He's stating facts, and Trump happens to be the president. The future is quite uncertain in the face of all of these tariffs, etc. That's not good for markets or the economy.

We HAD leverage, and it got us a pretty good deal. If we vote this down, we will no longer have leverage, and it will like be 12-18 months before we see another deal. If the economy takes a nose-dive during that time, our leverage becomes even weaker. So I think there is something to his perspective.

Is it industry leading in all categories? No, but that wasn't ever going to happen. That's not how any of this works.

We will still have leverage form the outside. This pilot group won’t have any unless it gets voted down overwhelmingly. But from the outside you still have the downgrade, the fleet plan and a few other things the company needs to plan for. The 2019 balance sheet has to be done in a few months and they need to have the orders on there for 2020. There is still quite a bit of pressure.

You serious south? No leverage? I know you lanyardless guys have some comprehension issues, so let’s rehash what leverage we have, and what leverage we lost:

What we have:
-Wall Street downgrade isn’t going anywhere
-Jaime Baker and friends...
-Operation that’s in the toilet with people still not helping out (except guys like you) bc they are unhappy with this TA. This TA won’t completely fix it when it passes, bc a large number were burned and expected market rate
-fleet review really needs a pilot contract to be complete and aircraft ordered, or at least flown
-economy and pilot contract landscape are still going up...by Jan 1st we will be even further behind our peers (hint: thats leverage)
-if this is voted down, that shows we are collectively not willing to work for less and accept a lagging contract. (another hint: that’s leverage)
-unity: some unity is lost due to the divisiveness this has caused....but fear not. We all want the same thing (well most of us), and that is to be compensated in line with our peers. We are united in that way. If 50.01% of us vote this down, more of us are united demanding more than not. That’s a good thing. Lanyardless guys like you have no unity anyway and don’t listen to the union (thanks for that again by the way).

What we lost: summer. Who cares? Winter is right around the corner. I had pairing changes on all trips except 2 between January and May. 2 pairings were normal. The rest had B-H behind them. Our operation is so effed we don’t need a heavy travel season to cause an irop or other operational issues where pilots can help out.

No unity? I'm not the one on here trashing our elected representatives who brought us a market rate deal. I have tremendous respect for them. Not choosing to wear a lanyard is MY choice, and has no relationship to my support for the union. YOU interpret it that way, and that's fine. It is absolutely your right to be incorrect.

I have been highlighting the pitfalls of this TA...not the NC, who I happen to engage with and fully support. They got the best they could with what they had to work with (lanyardless/no-unity people here, and JB management).

You’re right. It’s your choice to not listen to the one thing our union told us shows unity to the company and their union busting firm F&H...the lanyard.

You gonna back my family financially if things go south in your scenario? Thought so I like gambling...alot!....not that much!

What if you're wrong.

What if we are entering a period of economic prosperity that we have not seen for literally decades.

Because that's what I believe, and that's why I'm voting no.

Mark your calendar for this time next year. By that time the economic expansion will be obvious and undeniable, and this pilot group will be kicking itself for ratifying a substandard Agreement.

Turn off the TV and look around you. This period of time is unprecedented. It won't occur again. Recognize the opportunities and grab them with both hands.

You're wasting your time, POG. There are too many chicken sh1t pilots in this group to stand up for what they deserve. They're just happy to be here, and are in a hurry to get something to vote Yes on so they can move on from this scary process.

So much smarter and knows whats best for us all huh?

There are already thousands of Americans who have lost, or whom are losing their jobs and businesses because of his moronic isolation.

Hoovernomics did not work in the 20s and they won't work now. Sooner or later, its all gonna crumble.

Im already paying more in taxes, and now Im gonna take a pay cut with this contract...but I probably will vote yes because of scope and because this economy will not continue in the direction it is in. In fact, the stock market has NOT improved since the tax cuts. There really is no logical explanation as to why the stock market did so well after the election other than they were happy that none of the rules would be enforced.

What I know Hyper is that there are too many "Just happy to be here", "It's better than what we had/where I came from", "Gee, what happens if the economy collapses" cowards at this company for there to have enough unity for us to stick together to get a deal we really deserve.


The company knows this. They know they can offer a below average contract to this pilot group and a majority will gobble it up like a hobo on a ham sandwich.

The company knows this because almost every RSA was answered. The "other" jobs still got done. SOP was not followed and safety was not a top priority.

If you were doing as our union had asked we could have had more leverage. If you did any of those things above since Jan. 1st. you were working against this contract and have no room to complain about whats in it. Vote yes or no, but every mess cleaned up by a pilot was less and less leverage earned. Don't cry to me about it needs to be better when you were pulling for the other team to your own benefit.

Not directed at you Bunker, just in general.

Not taking it personally I know what you meant. I think towards the end, just before we agreed to the AIP, we were headed in that exact direction. We're never going to get 100% compliance, but we had enough where it was making an impact. Plus we were headed into the busiest part of the year where our SOP flying would have crippled this company. We had the upper hand, or at least significant leverage for the first time in this entire process and I feel we let them off the mat. We left money on the table, I'm convinced of that.

You stink.... Standard!

and those speed limits are just a suggestion.

oh and now the libs wanna enforce rules? come on man. get off bill mar and samantha B :D

The future is always “uncertain”. Also a trade war would not good for the EU, Canada, or China. We have massive trade imbalances with those blocs that benefit them. We spend our money buying their goods. They refuse to buy ours, as they have massive tariffs already on US goods to protect their industries. Now its their turn and they don’t like it.

We may have, maybe not. All I know is we've all gotta make a call yes or no. The hard numbers are the hard numbers. I'm trying to quantify the extra time off and better QOL that I'll have. This isn't necessarily all about the W2.

WHAT! why would we want trade deals that benefit the USA? we should just pay for the rest of the worlds problems. Maybe Bart Roberts has it right? How's Lagos this time of year?

sarcasm, off... just in case that wasn't clear.

True. It is what it is at this point. The decision is whether this is something you can stomach for the next 6-7 years or whether we're willing to fight to make this a contract we can be proud of.

The upcoming downturn shouldn’t have any weight on your decisions. 2 easy things to keep in mind. If it does go south, half of us are furloughed anyway so we won’t have the chance to enjoy our TA. And second, you do realize every contract was thrown out in court in 2002. Nice try Shu.

Never let fear mongers dictate these decisions, no one can or ever has predicted economic ups or downs with absolute certainty. Make the decision if this is good for you now, if not vote no. Fear factoring is childish, stop trying to instill fear into the equation. Is the deal that bad, that it can’t stand on its own merits, but rather must rely on fear to sell it? Shameful. Good luck guys.

I don't think anyone is relying on fear. A calculus of risk vs reward should be part of the decision. Some are more risk tolerant than others. Someone who isn't risk tolerant isn't somehow a bad person or shameful for voting in accordance with their own needs, nor are they for sharing their perspective.

It is shameful to attack/ridicule other pilots for not voting how you think they should vote.

Isn't the unemployment rate hugely tied to airline success? Poor people don't buy airline tickets. Struggling businesses don't hire people, therefore the macrocosm of US business is much different than the OP suggested. The unemployment rate has steadily improved during Trump, as much as I disagree with a lot of the things he does. It's at it's lowest point since 2000.

Not true. Many people are taking into consideration what happens if the economy tanks tomorrow. That's fear, irrational fear. And it's even been propagated by many of the MEC members and several other top union officers.

It isn't irrational at all. If the economy tanks and we are still negotiating, our position will likely be worse. That absolutely should be considered.

The fact that you accept that risk is fine. Others do not accept that risk, which is fine also. But to deny that it exists as a risk at all is incorrect.

So, we should accept a sub standard contract now, when we have a choice and things are good. That way we won't get a substandard contract later?

Genius.

No. This contract isn't substandard. It's pretty much middle of the road. Some good, some less good, but overall middle of the road and far ahead of our current book.

If we end up negotiating in a downturn, we could end up with a deal worse than this one. It's an unknown. Some are willing to accept that risk, and some are not. For most people this likely isn't their major factor for yes/no, but if they are middle of the road on the deal, it's likely the thing that pushes them to yes. Make sense?

If you think there's a real chance the economy tanks before we get a TA2 and are using that fear as a major decision making factor in your vote, that is irrational. Hell, we could crash 2 or 3 planes in the next few months and JB could tank even worse.



Is the economy a factor? Sure. But the chance it tanks over the next year or so to the point it would negatively affect our next TA is extremely low. People use that point as an EXCUSE to support their Yes vote.

It's not middle of the road. It's at the bottom end overall in relation to our peers. And it gets worse every year of this contract. But keep justifying settling for less. That's what we've all come to expect from you.

See. Personal attacks. Someone feels differently than you, and instead of seeing the other side, you attack.

It's not an attack to realize early on and to point out the fact that you were going to cave to anything thrown in front of you.

Why don’t you just get onto Blue Pilots? Are you not a JetBlue pilot?

I don't feel that it's a bad TA. If you feel that it is, vote no. I was leaning no on the AIP bullet points. But the final language changed my mind. But you know what? I don't have to justify myself to you.

I gave up trying after a couple of years. Invalid employee #. From what I hear,I'm better off no joining anyway. :D:D

Ive read things on BP that these eyes cant unsee.
Its a horrible, awful car wreck over there.
And I LOVE it. :D

I can only imagine. You can try and not look at the car wreck, but human nature will have you staring at it. I hear the stories of pure entertainment from some that I fly with. :D Maybe one day...