Staffing for new CBA.
#11
The REAL Bluedriver
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Sep 2011
Position: Airbus Capt
Posts: 6,881
We were about 14 pilots per plane a year or so ago, now we are 15 per. I think we will move to about 15.5-16 per plane, especially as the A220 comes online and there’s overlap with 3 fleet types, and especially if we increase A220 utilization over E190 utilization as we bulk up their use in 2022/23 (ie redeyes, which I anticipate eventually). With our remaining six 321 deliveries this year, that puts us at 254 planes. That’s 3810 by year’s end with current staffing, and 4,064 at 16 per.
I don’t think the new work rules, reserve, PTO/VPTO will change requirements a whole lot, frankly. Prem pickup, RSA/VDA will be alive and well and will keep the operation operating. Many people who sell back now will likely fly over vacation months, especially the trough months. I’d be surprised if we ever hit 16.5 pilots per plane. I’m guessing we may hire a little heavier next year, but if you think about it, we are basically maxed right now unless we stop all the 3rd party use of our sims.
With the 190 to bus transitions, newhires, upgrades on 2 fleets, we are already at or near max capacity and have little room to throw in another fleet worth of NH and transitions. This big pay gap between 320 and 190 will trigger more training events than we are used to. Throw in the fact that we need to expand OSC just to get the A220 sims and FPTs in (or go 1 and 1 initially), it won’t happen overnight and our training department, which is already stretched thin, can’t absorb that much more imo, until it grows. Especially since some of them will be going to do A220 initial cadre stuff in the next 12 months or so.
If we ever get a widebody, or possibly just with the LR, that may drive a few more pilots per airframe due to augmented ops, but the intl fleet will be so small it’ll be de minimis.
TL;DR: maybe a couple hundred more than planned over the next couple years. Nothing cosmic, and can’t imagine we can ramp it up very quickly anyway. Hopefully over 5,000 by end of 2023, and 5200-5400 by 2025.
My predictions (based on current order book/no 320 retirements) for EOY numbers:
2018: 3800
2019: 4100
2020: 4300
2021: 4600
2022: 4900
2023: 5200
2024: 5300
2025: 5300
I don’t think the new work rules, reserve, PTO/VPTO will change requirements a whole lot, frankly. Prem pickup, RSA/VDA will be alive and well and will keep the operation operating. Many people who sell back now will likely fly over vacation months, especially the trough months. I’d be surprised if we ever hit 16.5 pilots per plane. I’m guessing we may hire a little heavier next year, but if you think about it, we are basically maxed right now unless we stop all the 3rd party use of our sims.
With the 190 to bus transitions, newhires, upgrades on 2 fleets, we are already at or near max capacity and have little room to throw in another fleet worth of NH and transitions. This big pay gap between 320 and 190 will trigger more training events than we are used to. Throw in the fact that we need to expand OSC just to get the A220 sims and FPTs in (or go 1 and 1 initially), it won’t happen overnight and our training department, which is already stretched thin, can’t absorb that much more imo, until it grows. Especially since some of them will be going to do A220 initial cadre stuff in the next 12 months or so.
If we ever get a widebody, or possibly just with the LR, that may drive a few more pilots per airframe due to augmented ops, but the intl fleet will be so small it’ll be de minimis.
TL;DR: maybe a couple hundred more than planned over the next couple years. Nothing cosmic, and can’t imagine we can ramp it up very quickly anyway. Hopefully over 5,000 by end of 2023, and 5200-5400 by 2025.
My predictions (based on current order book/no 320 retirements) for EOY numbers:
2018: 3800
2019: 4100
2020: 4300
2021: 4600
2022: 4900
2023: 5200
2024: 5300
2025: 5300
I think as we beef up staffing we will have a little lower ALV and more dudes chasing the open time that exists.
My opinion of course.
#12
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jul 2018
Posts: 45
Retirement
How many pilots will simply try to bid down to 0 or as close as possible? If you’re well-funded, don’t want to work and just want some of the benefits this might be an option. This will also allow pilots (perhaps senior) who want to put more time in their 2nd project/job a lot more flexibility.
#14
Covfefe
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 3,001
How many pilots will simply try to bid down to 0 or as close as possible? If you’re well-funded, don’t want to work and just want some of the benefits this might be an option. This will also allow pilots (perhaps senior) who want to put more time in their 2nd project/job a lot more flexibility.
#17
The guys dropping on the trade board probably won’t have much trouble doing so if the predictions of less OT being available are true. The Greedy pilots we have here won’t be able to help themselves. Example, similar to now when a senior pilot takes all the summer vacation slots and gives them to their junior buddy: Nothing stops a deal between guys bidding a week of vacation and having their junior pal that wants that week off and flys min schedule anyway to bid to work it, then the senior guy can take the junior guys trips off the trade board and still get his 150% addiction fed. My point is there are ways to exploit the system and more of them will come out as we adjust to the new normal.
#18
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2015
Posts: 491
Since Kirby arrived we are on a massive growth plan. He wants more RJs but we aren’t giving him them. I met him when I went to “charm school” which is what we call it when all the new Captains go to HQ to meet the honchos. Kirby wants to make United #1 again and I specifically asked him about buying JB. He said we already have more planes on order than JBs current fleet and all we really want is access to JFK, and it would be too expensive so we aren’t doing it.
Best way to a United job is to apply. There have been JB pilots in every new hire class, which looks like its going to be 70 a month, so get here early and get people behind you on the list quickly.
Best way to a United job is to apply. There have been JB pilots in every new hire class, which looks like its going to be 70 a month, so get here early and get people behind you on the list quickly.
#19
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2014
Posts: 1,316
Since Kirby arrived we are on a massive growth plan. He wants more RJs but we aren’t giving him them. I met him when I went to “charm school” which is what we call it when all the new Captains go to HQ to meet the honchos. Kirby wants to make United #1 again and I specifically asked him about buying JB. He said we already have more planes on order than JBs current fleet and all we really want is access to JFK, and it would be too expensive so we aren’t doing it.
Best way to a United job is to apply. There have been JB pilots in every new hire class, which looks like its going to be 70 a month, so get here early and get people behind you on the list quickly.
Best way to a United job is to apply. There have been JB pilots in every new hire class, which looks like its going to be 70 a month, so get here early and get people behind you on the list quickly.
#20
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2012
Position: 190 captain and “Pro-pilot”
Posts: 2,918
Since Kirby arrived we are on a massive growth plan. He wants more RJs but we aren’t giving him them. I met him when I went to “charm school” which is what we call it when all the new Captains go to HQ to meet the honchos. Kirby wants to make United #1 again and I specifically asked him about buying JB. He said we already have more planes on order than JBs current fleet and all we really want is access to JFK, and it would be too expensive so we aren’t doing it.
Best way to a United job is to apply. There have been JB pilots in every new hire class, which looks like its going to be 70 a month, so get here early and get people behind you on the list quickly.
Best way to a United job is to apply. There have been JB pilots in every new hire class, which looks like its going to be 70 a month, so get here early and get people behind you on the list quickly.
I’m sure you understand it’s kind of an inside joke because everyday someone is buying jetblue. But what he told you was very interesting. Now funny thing is we were told day after day that jetblue would grow organically from every ELT member, than one day the media told us we were trying to buy another airline. I’m not saying it’s going to happen but I sure as heck hope you don’t trust Kirby.
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