Thanks for clarifying. I see where I assumed wrong.

Sure, and that's a fair point. The truth is we wouldn't know what is THE MOST JUNIOR base until you actually get to what any individual class bids once it's available. It's a bit of an academic point to be honest, because the fact is that newish pilots can hold it, and will be able to hold it in the future, really really quickly. As far as I'm concerned, that's a win for everyone.

Remember that one class a few years ago was FORCED to go to LGB because no new hires would take the slots. For one new hire class, LGB had the most junior A320 FO's in the system.

Whether that happens with FLL remains to be seen.

Another thing to note about bases being junior is not just who the bottom guy is, but what the seniority distribution is in that base/seat. I posted some seniorities/longevities and their associated relative base seniorities a few weeks ago I think. At 3,000 (75% in the company and a 3.5 year guy), his percentages are: JFK320:53%, BOS320: 64%, FLL: 62%, LGB: 66%, and MCO320: 95%. At seniority 2,000, or 50% in the company, you'd bid (FO) JFK: 16%, BOS: 21.5%, FLL: 14%, LGB: 32%, MCO: 44%.

At seniority 3500 (1.5 years on property) JFK and FLL are about the same (82/80%), BOS/LGB are about the same at 88%.

Note: those figures are guys who are currently in the seat and reflected in crewtrac. There are more guys in training or awaiting transfers which will change these numbers, as will the whole bid that just came out. This is simply a current snapshot.

Also, those numbers are for active bidders, not mgmt/LOA guys who aren't actively bidding, but the percentages are roughly the same if you include those).

It seems like getting FLL lately has been more about luck of class timing than anything else. There are new hires from the 7/24 class who were awarded FLL out of training yet there were folks from the May 8th class who will have waited over a year to get in by the time their transfers take effect due to equipment locks while folks from June classes will be able to transfer by December. It's really a complete crap shoot since nobody knows exactly what bases or equipment will be offered until they show up for class.

Any chance you can turn those numbers in to dates so they’re a little more useful to people?

Most JR. CA Awards:

JFK A320 11/2016
BOS A320 2/2015
FLL A320 12/2013
LGB A320 5/2007
MCO A320 2/2007

BOS E190 11/2016
JFK E190 7/2017
MCO E190 3/2013

JFK 320 CA #3196 11/2/16
BOS 320 CA #2768 2/4/15
FLL 320 CA #2386 12/5/13
LGB 320 CA #1508 5/9/07
MCO 320 CA #1394 2/28/07

All the 38xx-39xx have been hired March and later of this year
3500 is 2/7/2018...you can kind of figure the distribution from there. When I get more time I'll maybe fill in the rest, but its backward looking not forward looking, so the time to a base/seat in the future will be different. Especially since A220 will likely be on the next annual bid which could change things. And people will have a better idea of where seniorities will play out on the next bid, as well as reserve/work rules which could change some strategies. That wasn't exactly known when this bid was due.