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-   -   F9/NK rises like a Phoenix (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/jetblue/148485-f9-nk-rises-like-phoenix.html)

FriendlyPilot 10-25-2024 11:37 AM


Originally Posted by Clear Right (Post 3846832)
^^^This^^^ It’s only a matter of time before AS/HA/B6 merge (if F9/NK merge).

Call it Jet Blaskan?

FriendlyPilot 10-25-2024 11:41 AM


Originally Posted by GrayFlyer (Post 3847138)
He's saying you need economy of scale going forward to compete against airlines which have 1000 planes. Just like the rest of us.

If "economy of scale" is the driving force, why was Spirit profitable every year since 2013 when they were much smaller than they are today? Why isn't Southwest and American massively profitable? They have far more scale.

Maybe its a business model problem / failure to pivot? How will this help Frontier if they take on all this extra debt and grossly unprofitable airline that will burn all their cash? If Frontier wanted scale why did they defer a bunch of planes to 2029 and beyond? How will Frontier deal with the $1.2B in loans coming due in 10 months? They don't have the cash right now.

Clear Right 10-25-2024 11:48 AM


Originally Posted by Flyby1206 (Post 3847504)
In a year or so we’ve hopefully shown some profits and are ready to grow again. Breeze in the meantime has run out of cash and their hedge fund backers want to get paid. JB buys Breeze, touts the redemption arc for Neeleman returning to JB to invigorate the company and help rebuild our *barf* culture *barf* while he sits on the BOD.

We get a load of 220s, keep some of their smaller bases, expand along the east coast to secondary cities. JB has good brand recognition in most of the Breeze hubs already, but little variety/frequency of service

This might actually be a thing; JG has returned to a lot of the original B6 leadership team, vision and culture that made B6 succeed in much worse economic times. Her plan might actually work, especially after some capacity disruption/discipline with the NK/F9 efficiencies (I.E. Shrinking to Profitability) gained in their potential merger.

DN is an expert at starting airlines and then selling them, I could see him back as a Board member with a Breeze combo.

But would still rather see AS/HA/B6 “airline group” with all three brands surviving, but under one leadership team, or the wildcard WN/B6 merger.😀

FriendlyPilot 10-25-2024 11:48 AM


Originally Posted by Salukidawg (Post 3847419)
Forget AS at this point. You all couldn't agree on who would run the combined Airline anyway. Why not wait for F9/NK to shake out and then merge with them? Full Airbus fleet and a balanced domestic route network spread evenly throughout the country. AS/B6 would be a barbell network. Strong on the opposite coasts without much of anything in the middle of the country. It would be too reliant on transcons only and that's not sustainable against the Big 4 IMO.

Yep the networks don't make sense this way. To get from Portland Maine to Spokane Washington you'd have to fly PWM-JFK-SEA-GEG. Every other airline would be 2 legs. I think even Southwest can make that trip in 2 legs.

Flyby1206 10-25-2024 12:16 PM


Originally Posted by Clear Right (Post 3847512)
But would still rather see AS/HA/B6 “airline group” with all three brands surviving, but under one leadership team, or the wildcard WN/B6 merger.😀

I see Breeze/JB as a stepping stone to JB+AS.


Originally Posted by FriendlyPilot (Post 3847513)
Yep the networks don't make sense this way. To get from Portland Maine to Spokane Washington you'd have to fly PWM-JFK-SEA-GEG. Every other airline would be 2 legs. I think even Southwest can make that trip in 2 legs.

A future AS+B6 would set the stage for a midcon hub, ORD would be my choice but there are alternatives. These secondary cities on both coast would get service to the midcon hub to make itineraries more logical. A plane like the 220 (see above) would be best

11atsomto 10-25-2024 12:35 PM


Originally Posted by Flyby1206 (Post 3847205)
Quite possible. I was thinking Buttigieg wants to make a name for himself for another presidential run in 2028. Hedging his bets by making moves now vs after Election Day.

Yeah I think you are on to something. How opportune of him, he needs a scalp to back at tribal council when he runs for Chief for the Party of Science..............provided they do not win the White House, since he'd be out of a job anyway.

APCHCLIMB 10-25-2024 01:01 PM


Originally Posted by Flyby1206 (Post 3847521)
I see Breeze/JB as a stepping stone to JB+AS.
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What about Emirates? Or Aeroflot? I mean why don’t you just drop some more combinations for mergers that are nonexistent.

Breeze+JB+AS+EK= world domination?

Flyby1206 10-25-2024 01:11 PM


Originally Posted by APCHCLIMB (Post 3847534)
What about Emirates? Or Aeroflot? I mean why don’t you just drop some more combinations for mergers that are nonexistent.

Breeze+JB+AS+EK= world domination?

Well… Brazil allows 100% foreign ownership now, so I think a JB/Azul combo would make a lot of sense too. After the Breeze merger of course. Neeleman can grease the wheels in the Azul C-suite to make it happen. :p

https://www.ch-aviation.com/news/472...local-airlines

APCHCLIMB 10-25-2024 01:13 PM


Originally Posted by Flyby1206 (Post 3847540)
Well… Brazil allows 100% foreign ownership now, so I think a JB/Azul combo would make a lot of sense too. After the Breeze merger of course. Neeleman can grease the wheels in the Azul C-suite to make it happen. :p

https://www.ch-aviation.com/news/472...local-airlines

you know…. Must guys complain about one SLI. Now you’re talking about 4.

Flyby1206 10-25-2024 01:20 PM


Originally Posted by APCHCLIMB (Post 3847541)
you know…. Must guys complain about one SLI. Now you’re talking about 4.

I do have some nonsense ideas, but I do know we'd be absolutely screwed in just about every merger scenario I can think of. I don't look forward to that reality if/when it happens


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