Originally Posted by rononymous

I think many of us believed this was more or less JetBlue’s place in the market pre-Covid. I’m not sure anybody ever thought we were going to become a global powerhouse but we all expected (including management) to grow organically and to be a real national competitor and to be profitable by offering a better product than the large network carriers for a lower price. That reality changed drastically post Covid for all the reasons I think many on this forum are familiar with.
We play in some of the biggest sandboxes in the country in terms of operational cost that are consistently impacted by weather and ATC (the infamous unrelenting headwinds our leadership complains about every quarter). It makes it impossible to offer significantly better fares than larger carriers with large networks and ways to spread their cost and operation around and to do it profitably.
At some point we crossed a threshold where we are too big and our cost structure is way too high (not speaking of labor only, but the overall operational cost) to be a mom and pop operation. I think that’s why BlueDriver mentioned Breeze as being the airline you describe.
We cannot go backwards and shrink to become that airline anymore, but we also have no path to the growth we need to make our business model work outside of M&A. We are at critical mass here and I think it’s gotten to the point where even our managers, stakeholders, and most hard-core JetForward truthers understand this.

Originally Posted by rononymous

I think many of us believed this was more or less JetBlue’s place in the market pre-Covid. I’m not sure anybody ever thought we were going to become a global powerhouse but we all expected (including management) to grow organically and to be a real national competitor and to be profitable by offering a better product than the large network carriers for a lower price. That reality changed drastically post Covid for all the reasons I think many on this forum are familiar with.
We play in some of the biggest sandboxes in the country in terms of operational cost that are consistently impacted by weather and ATC (the infamous unrelenting headwinds our leadership complains about every quarter). It makes it impossible to offer significantly better fares than larger carriers with large networks and ways to spread their cost and operation around and to do it profitably.
At some point we crossed a threshold where we are too big and our cost structure is way too high (not speaking of labor only, but the overall operational cost) to be a mom and pop operation. I think that’s why BlueDriver mentioned Breeze as being the airline you describe.
We cannot go backwards and shrink to become that airline anymore, but we also have no path to the growth we need to make our business model work outside of M&A. We are at critical mass here and I think it’s gotten to the point where even our managers, stakeholders, and most hard-core JetForward truthers understand this.

Originally Posted by rononymous

I think many of us believed this was more or less JetBlue’s place in the market pre-Covid. I’m not sure anybody ever thought we were going to become a global powerhouse but we all expected (including management) to grow organically and to be a real national competitor and to be profitable by offering a better product than the large network carriers for a lower price. That reality changed drastically post Covid for all the reasons I think many on this forum are familiar with.
We play in some of the biggest sandboxes in the country in terms of operational cost that are consistently impacted by weather and ATC (the infamous unrelenting headwinds our leadership complains about every quarter). It makes it impossible to offer significantly better fares than larger carriers with large networks and ways to spread their cost and operation around and to do it profitably.
At some point we crossed a threshold where we are too big and our cost structure is way too high (not speaking of labor only, but the overall operational cost) to be a mom and pop operation. I think that’s why BlueDriver mentioned Breeze as being the airline you describe.
We cannot go backwards and shrink to become that airline anymore, but we also have no path to the growth we need to make our business model work outside of M&A. We are at critical mass here and I think it’s gotten to the point where even our managers, stakeholders, and most hard-core JetForward truthers understand this.

Originally Posted by BlueDrlver

a decade is a pretty significant amount of time to give up.

Originally Posted by BluesGuitar

Indeed. I’ve made the same decision after 11 years. However, I can’t stay out of fear. I made that argument during Covid. Can’t leave now. Economy might crash, etc. The airlines are not a meritocracy and we all knew that going in. Seniority is everything and if you’re in that nebulous zone of 15-20 years here and you’ll be retired in less than a decade, life is okay but not stellar. And it never will be. Even right seat bus JFK won’t crack the 10% mark.

And it’s not going to get appreciably better either. Insufficient reserves. Can’t drop or swap. Untenable schedules with my lifestyle.

Not complaining, not sour grapes, it just is what it is. A corporate opportunity with a larger Fortune company popped up that includes a what if severance package that addressed short term risk concerns. Driving instead of commuting half way across the country, not being subject to airline operational issues, better treatment, and a salary offer on par with 320 CA sealed the deal.

I wish everyone here the best. I had high hopes here. A successful Spirit deal would have led to a different decision for me. It’s just no longer a road I can go down.

Originally Posted by rononymous

I think many of us believed this was more or less JetBlue’s place in the market pre-Covid. I’m not sure anybody ever thought we were going to become a global powerhouse but we all expected (including management) to grow organically and to be a real national competitor and to be profitable by offering a better product than the large network carriers for a lower price. That reality changed drastically post Covid for all the reasons I think many on this forum are familiar with.
We play in some of the biggest sandboxes in the country in terms of operational cost that are consistently impacted by weather and ATC (the infamous unrelenting headwinds our leadership complains about every quarter). It makes it impossible to offer significantly better fares than larger carriers with large networks and ways to spread their cost and operation around and to do it profitably.
At some point we crossed a threshold where we are too big and our cost structure is way too high (not speaking of labor only, but the overall operational cost) to be a mom and pop operation. I think that’s why BlueDriver mentioned Breeze as being the airline you describe.
We cannot go backwards and shrink to become that airline anymore, but we also have no path to the growth we need to make our business model work outside of M&A. We are at critical mass here and I think it’s gotten to the point where even our managers, stakeholders, and most hard-core JetForward truthers understand this.

Originally Posted by BluesGuitar

Indeed. I’ve made the same decision after 11 years. However, I can’t stay out of fear. I made that argument during Covid. Can’t leave now. Economy might crash, etc. The airlines are not a meritocracy and we all knew that going in. Seniority is everything and if you’re in that nebulous zone of 15-20 years here and you’ll be retired in less than a decade, life is okay but not stellar. And it never will be. Even right seat bus JFK won’t crack the 10% mark.

And it’s not going to get appreciably better either. Insufficient reserves. Can’t drop or swap. Untenable schedules with my lifestyle.

Not complaining, not sour grapes, it just is what it is. A corporate opportunity with a larger Fortune company popped up that includes a what if severance package that addressed short term risk concerns. Driving instead of commuting half way across the country, not being subject to airline operational issues, better treatment, and a salary offer on par with 320 CA sealed the deal.

I wish everyone here the best. I had high hopes here. A successful Spirit deal would have led to a different decision for me. It’s just no longer a road I can go down.

Originally Posted by Hedley

Thanks for an honest reply. I hope that you guys can make it work out. I don’t see the government allowing any of the big 4 to get even bigger and more powerful through a merger, despite the irony that the merger process is what made them into the behemoths that they are today. Possibly a merger with a smaller company and shifting to lower cost secondary markets?

Originally Posted by rononymous

I agree that it feels unlikely but we’re all smart enough to know that timing, narrative, money and political influence all play a role in any M&A. If we actually start down that path with one of the large carriers I think the likelihood of it being approved is high. It’s become apparent we’re at the stage where there’s a lot of homework being done on what it would take to overcome regulatory hurdles. Whether this exploration results in actually going down that path is TBD and is the bigger question.

If for some reason this doesn’t work then I can see trying to tie up with a smaller carrier as an option but that’s only if we can’t dance with one of the big boys. This is of course my opinion only based on nothing but my own observations and experience. YMMV.