That’s the only thing it boils down to. Does Kirby need more slots than JB is willing to lease to UA through the BlueSky partnership? If yes, then a merger becomes a more serious option. If no, then JB will remain a standalone.

 

Are the lines at TSA really crushing demand? I haven’t heard that one, but I could be wrong. If demand was crushed by it, wouldn’t the wait times be much shorter? 🤔

 

Why do they let these bozos represent leadership? What possible benefit is there to us as a workforce? I’d be happier if they’d just give us some footballs and tell us to go play outside for half an hour.

 

UA or standalone aren't the only options. This isn't binary. SWA and AK are very viable possibilities and the chatter with those two airlines has been just as loud on the inner circles as UA has been in the press.

 

It's a bit anecdotal, but I know multiple people canceling travel today and/or talking about canceling trips this summer. When it's a 3-4 hour line and the percieved threat that ICE is going to ask you for your papers and arrest you if you don't produce them it's gonna hurt demand.

"Why not just drive somewhere this year? The economy is tanking let just save."

 

Yes, that's correct. My apologies I meant to reference this in a UA-JB ecosystem only. There are certainly other possibilities for merger partners. I could make a case for AA, F9, MX in addition to AS/WN. Whether any of these come to fruition is a coin flip

 

Yeah I don’t know about that one on a measurable scale, but I guess we’ll see.

 

I see AA only if they choose to enter a bidding war. WN, is doing well on its own. AS, if it chooses to grow can only do so on the east coast with a merger. Simply no other way to just expand but do they have an appetite to compete nation/world wide or just fortress the PNW. I think you dropped F9 for a comedy break? A merger with them would expedite bankruptcy with their management being worse than JetBlue’s.

 

Yeah it's a stretch, but feel free to critique. Robin Hayes knew we needed to scale and needed a national presence, he also knew this would be tough as an un-aligned carrier which brought about the NEA. Unfortunately, the execution of the merger and alliance was horrible. The idea remains sound.

JB/F9 is very similar to the old JB/NK, but executed in the right way. Step one would be get all of the JB/UA stuff settled. Blanket domestic codeshare with UA as well as a Star alliance membership for JB. After that you could merge JB/F9 and use their existing bases to expand. I would focus mainly on the major US cities where UA doesn't have a big presence. F9 brings DFW/ATL/PHL/PHX type of places in addition to BOS/JFK/FLL/MCO from JB. This would expand the reach of the UA/Star network and likely cut into other legacies bread and butter (AA in particular). It would also help other Star alliance carriers globally who serve these cities but have no feed support. The thesis would be that many travelers in these legacy hubs are "trapped" and have no other decent option for alliance programs to join. There might be a subset of pax willing to move to Star alliance in DFW for instance, just nobody giving them the chance.

Crazy? Dumb? Probably yes to both.

 

Far be it for to criticize.

Their current fleet is around 170, 24 are being returned this year and different 69 until 2030. Essentially Jetblue would be purchasing current aircraft and, perhaps, an additional order book.
DEN, MCO and ATL are their biggest bases with, up to, 80 flights per day much of which is seasonal. Extremely limited infrastructure (like spirit) and opposite culture (like spirit) so to me that purchase/merger/acquisition would be solely about aircraft.
Could it work? Good question. The Star Alliance part could be helpful but management continue to state that isn't in the plans. In the end wiith current Jetblue management I just don't see it.