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#9671
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,327
Something to consider with regards to the timing of hiring restarting is the lag from when the process begins to when the pilot starts indoc and even completes IOE. The background check process in the past has been notoriously slow for applicants, taking months to complete. We could see a six to nine month lag between the hiring window opening until pilots are in training or flying the line. If hiring does restart in Q1 2021, that would likely be for staffing as late as the end of the year, which coincides with Robin's forecast for a return to 2019 capacity. Add in the classes that were sent home during training to prime the pump before then and I don't see it as overly optimistic that we could be hiring next year. That's of course with the giant caveat that the current demand trend continues.
On a related note, in his last couple of appearances on CNBC, Robin has been pretty coy when asked about daily cash burn, seeming to hesitate a bit before only referencing the guidance provided in the Q2 earnings call. That could very well just be Robin being Robin, but given all of the new route additions and talk about hopeful signs in future bookings, I'm really curious to hear an update on those numbers during the Q3 earnings call next month. If the new network changes are helping bring cash burn back to neutral, I think the odds of accelerating deliveries increases. There are just too many new routes that were announced in this latest batch like LAX-CHS and RIC-LAS that are textbook A220 routes that I'm sure the company doesn't want to waste committing a 320 to service the route for long.
Whichever airline gets back to neutral cash burn first will get a lot of love from Wall Street and in return will have quite a bit of leeway in their strategic decision making.
And since I'm here, I might as well make a prediction for OTF. I'm going to go with a push to get employees reinvested in the health and future of the company with a campaign to "Own The Franchise".
On a related note, in his last couple of appearances on CNBC, Robin has been pretty coy when asked about daily cash burn, seeming to hesitate a bit before only referencing the guidance provided in the Q2 earnings call. That could very well just be Robin being Robin, but given all of the new route additions and talk about hopeful signs in future bookings, I'm really curious to hear an update on those numbers during the Q3 earnings call next month. If the new network changes are helping bring cash burn back to neutral, I think the odds of accelerating deliveries increases. There are just too many new routes that were announced in this latest batch like LAX-CHS and RIC-LAS that are textbook A220 routes that I'm sure the company doesn't want to waste committing a 320 to service the route for long.
Whichever airline gets back to neutral cash burn first will get a lot of love from Wall Street and in return will have quite a bit of leeway in their strategic decision making.
And since I'm here, I might as well make a prediction for OTF. I'm going to go with a push to get employees reinvested in the health and future of the company with a campaign to "Own The Franchise".
OTF Is a “destination” according to the last two emails? I could see this being France. Can the 190 even make it to France? Seems a bit of a stretch.
#9672
Line Holder
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Position: E-190 FO
Posts: 32
We are still taking aircraft that we’ll need to staff. It is exciting to hear talk of growth again but I’m not reading to far into it.
#9673
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 537
Fwiw there are supposedly 9 old a320s not getting the cabin refresh and that will exit the fleet at some point soon. So despite 220 and 321NEO deliveries, we will also be parking some planes (as of right now, but that could change). So I’m frankly not in the super optimistic camp, but if we started hiring again next year that’d be awesome.
#9674
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Posts: 531
It’s going to get very interesting after Oct 1st. Congress likely tied up in Supreme Court nominee battle, so probably no Cares 2 will pass in the next few weeks. That’s going to put the squeeze on a lot of players.
If you are an airline with a good balance sheet and there is a recovery in leisure travel, could be reasonable to be optimistic for B6 hiring. Just an opinion.
If you are an airline with a good balance sheet and there is a recovery in leisure travel, could be reasonable to be optimistic for B6 hiring. Just an opinion.
#9675
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2008
Position: Left,Right, Left, Right,Right,Left, Right, Left
Posts: 3,150
There's a lot of cards in motion right now. The 220 coming online, SQ flying, and the AA code share that could bring most of the 190s back from storage. Assuming an uptick in traffic I don't see why we wouldn't need more bodies by the second half of the year.
Of course it could tank the other direction again too then we're all F'ed.
Of course it could tank the other direction again too then we're all F'ed.
#9677
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2008
Position: Left,Right, Left, Right,Right,Left, Right, Left
Posts: 3,150
actually had to go do landings and a line check last week. SJU is opening up and the pool and restaurants were moving again at the convention center.
#9679
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,002
There's a lot of cards in motion right now. The 220 coming online, SQ flying, and the AA code share that could bring most of the 190s back from storage. Assuming an uptick in traffic I don't see why we wouldn't need more bodies by the second half of the year.
Of course it could tank the other direction again too then we're all F'ed.
Of course it could tank the other direction again too then we're all F'ed.
#9680
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,327
So I think the real question is, who do you believe more... the CP saying hiring and 5000 pilots.. or alpa saying might want to consider your vacation placement because you’ll either give it away or well maybe you’ll get paid out for it in May?
pretty interesting the disconnect in the last week between everyone.
pretty interesting the disconnect in the last week between everyone.
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