The Future Of Artificial Intelligence
#81
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2016
Posts: 463
And you even just said it yourself in your reply. It pushed buttons and got the machine on the ground.
Also I said CO PILOTS in 5-10 years. Not the AC commander or Captain. I fly an A320 and I recall a recent flight. AP1 on at 100 feet, pushed some buttons , talked on radio, visibility below Cat 1 mins so did an autoland. Taxi to gate. Its just too easy.
Didn't mean to dis anything about the C17 mission. I do realize you fly into hostile areas and do tactical approaches where you get shot at and refuel inflight. But don't you also drone from point A to B quite often also? Couldn't you do most missions with one human pilot and have a robot copilot in 5-10 years?
If you re read the article, it stated the Robot could manipulate the auto flight system and get the airplane on the ground if the Captain becomes incapacitated. That's what they are demonstrating.
Also I said CO PILOTS in 5-10 years. Not the AC commander or Captain. I fly an A320 and I recall a recent flight. AP1 on at 100 feet, pushed some buttons , talked on radio, visibility below Cat 1 mins so did an autoland. Taxi to gate. Its just too easy.
Didn't mean to dis anything about the C17 mission. I do realize you fly into hostile areas and do tactical approaches where you get shot at and refuel inflight. But don't you also drone from point A to B quite often also? Couldn't you do most missions with one human pilot and have a robot copilot in 5-10 years?
If you re read the article, it stated the Robot could manipulate the auto flight system and get the airplane on the ground if the Captain becomes incapacitated. That's what they are demonstrating.
Now you could argue that the second pilot would be in the ground station, but then how much are we really saving cost wise; considering the investment into the automation and still having to pay that guys' salary. Not much, not to mention the insurance costs and non monetary costs/risks. A cargo plane crashing isn't really cheap. The only true savings would be a pilot less cockpit but like I said that is generations away. AI would have to be developed to a point where it can actually make human like decisions
I don't fly C-17s, just an example, but the C-130J has a similar cockpit. Even on a routine mission there is no way one pilot could take it from start to finish.
#82
Not quite where I was going. Yes electric motors, sure, but where are they going to draw their power from? I know batteries! But where will the batteries draw their power?
Consider that 1 gallon of gasoline has approximately 115000 BTU of energy. We have absolutely Nothing that can even come close in energy! Solar energy via panels doesn't even come close, plus there is a time factor involved (think time derivative). So how are we going to power those fancy nasa electronic motors?
This I feel is the real problem! Add to that the overall efficiency of a system. What we desperately need is an alternative fuel source that can at least come close to fossil fuels in both BTU output, and time derivative. The other part is improving the efficiency of engines that utilize this fuel.
Yes if we could find an engine that operates on technology other than thermal energy, that would be good. But short of a nuclear reactor, we do not have this technology (or at least a mobile version).
All is not lost, I think there is real potential in bioengineering of fuels. My vote also goes to oilshale. Neither oil nor shale, but has enormous potential!
My point is this. Before AI comes of age, fossil fuel dependence will be a show stopper. So in the meantime that is a wonderful area to invst in.
My .02
Consider that 1 gallon of gasoline has approximately 115000 BTU of energy. We have absolutely Nothing that can even come close in energy! Solar energy via panels doesn't even come close, plus there is a time factor involved (think time derivative). So how are we going to power those fancy nasa electronic motors?
This I feel is the real problem! Add to that the overall efficiency of a system. What we desperately need is an alternative fuel source that can at least come close to fossil fuels in both BTU output, and time derivative. The other part is improving the efficiency of engines that utilize this fuel.
Yes if we could find an engine that operates on technology other than thermal energy, that would be good. But short of a nuclear reactor, we do not have this technology (or at least a mobile version).
All is not lost, I think there is real potential in bioengineering of fuels. My vote also goes to oilshale. Neither oil nor shale, but has enormous potential!
My point is this. Before AI comes of age, fossil fuel dependence will be a show stopper. So in the meantime that is a wonderful area to invst in.
My .02
https://futurism.com/this-all-electr...single-charge/
#83
:-)
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,339
Don't you as an A320 pilot ever find yourself intervening during managed modes, heading select mode around weather, etc? We have two pilots for 2 reasons: contingency and CRM. A computer is no where near the point to be able to back up one pilot programming the "box." What happens when the pilot is incapacitated? The computer just knows to do what it is programmed.
Now you could argue that the second pilot would be in the ground station, but then how much are we really saving cost wise; considering the investment into the automation and still having to pay that guys' salary. Not much, not to mention the insurance costs and non monetary costs/risks. A cargo plane crashing isn't really cheap. The only true savings would be a pilot less cockpit but like I said that is generations away. AI would have to be developed to a point where it can actually make human like decisions
I don't fly C-17s, just an example, but the C-130J has a similar cockpit. Even on a routine mission there is no way one pilot could take it from start to finish.
Now you could argue that the second pilot would be in the ground station, but then how much are we really saving cost wise; considering the investment into the automation and still having to pay that guys' salary. Not much, not to mention the insurance costs and non monetary costs/risks. A cargo plane crashing isn't really cheap. The only true savings would be a pilot less cockpit but like I said that is generations away. AI would have to be developed to a point where it can actually make human like decisions
I don't fly C-17s, just an example, but the C-130J has a similar cockpit. Even on a routine mission there is no way one pilot could take it from start to finish.
#84
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2010
Posts: 96
Machine learning systems look at millions of human flight hours, and then copy what humans would do in that situation. It's a completely different system then what is currently installed in aircraft. Humans would be free to make judgement calls, while all flying is done by the autopilot.
So the systems just copy what humans would do? That doesn't sound like AI.
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#85
New Hire
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 7
Agreed. Airline pilots will be obsolete in 10 years, possibly less. Cargo first, then passenger. It's going to happen faster than we want to admit.
Go learn to write 3d computing, machine learning or deep learning code.
We're talking about career paths on opposing trajectories...good luck whichever way you go.
Go learn to write 3d computing, machine learning or deep learning code.
We're talking about career paths on opposing trajectories...good luck whichever way you go.
#87
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2013
Posts: 10,064
Agreed. Airline pilots will be obsolete in 10 years, possibly less. Cargo first, then passenger. It's going to happen faster than we want to admit.
Go learn to write 3d computing, machine learning or deep learning code.
We're talking about career paths on opposing trajectories...good luck whichever way you go.
Go learn to write 3d computing, machine learning or deep learning code.
We're talking about career paths on opposing trajectories...good luck whichever way you go.
#88
#89
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2013
Posts: 539
6-9 passengers, 600 mile range on one charge:
https://futurism.com/this-all-electr...single-charge/
https://futurism.com/this-all-electr...single-charge/
2 thoughts though. The first being, where did the electrical energy come from to charge the battery?
The second thought is how economical is the solution you have presented?
Consider this: 1 gal of gasoline is approximately 115000 BTU. So say in an airliner burning 2000 lbs per hour we are burning 33810000 BTU per hour. Thats Alot of energy. In all fairness there is alot of inefficiencies in our heat engine. Even at 30% efficiency or stated another way, if we need only 30% of a gallon at 100% efficiency, than we will need at least 10143000 BTU for this example.
Where are we going to get that energy? Batteries are great but they dont run on PFM. That energy comes from somewhere.
#90
New Hire
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 7
Obsolete in 10 years? That's a dumb statement. Airlines and cargo companies are flying equipment that is nearly 30 years old. Even if it took 10 years to develop a fully auto airliner (it will take far far longer), it'll take 20-30 to cycle all the old aircraft out of the system. Current tech isn't even close to being ready. We are probably 40 years away from that possibility.
Automation is coming, it may be 10, 20, or 100 years away. Before it's a completed process, our profession may undergo significant changes in terms of QoL and compensation as a result of management's automation leverage.
Given the current trajectory of machine learning, I think the OP is taking on significant risk by investing in a long term airline career. I'd at least recommend having a backup plan in case this happens sooner than later.
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