at6d

When I was at Eagle, I heard it non-stop from the mainline!

At this junction, you can’t go wrong with any of the big four plus FedEx or UPS.

Take the opportunity to really think about family impact (if you have family). Not too long ago, the list of available airlines was very short. Not so today.

Bizkit

Scheduling seems to be pretty flexible at SWA. But I imagine at some point PBS at the legacies with a bit of seniority can start to yield better results. Not to mention the ability to sit WB reserve at home and not work for large stretches. Looking through some other threads, not much of a chance to get out of flying at SWA, which can be a very tiring schedule as you get older. If I’m making false assumptions, someone please correct me.


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Varsity

After what was reported for Q1 this morning, I'd take AA off the list.


Unlikely AA will break even next year with current trends. Here comes another bankruptcy.

e6bpilot

Really senior captains at SWA can barely work if they really want to. 5 weeks of vacation (essentially two and a half months off) plus the ability to bid turns and two days and pick up and giveaway at will yields a lot of flexibility.
A lot of those guys are on a planned sick leave burndown plan as well. If you fly island turns, you will fly with one of them eventually. They barely come to work.
Now, that being said, there are plenty of guys on the third divorce payoff plan as well working their butts off.

mainlineAF

That’s a little excessive. Still expecting profits 10% greater than 2018 for the full year while losing $350 million due to the max grounding.

Could be better but the sky isn’t falling.

AAfng

You are crazy. I own AA stock. Some incorrect information on here.

First of all, I was about as junior of a lineholder as they come last summer and I didnt work more than 12 days a month. Schedules started out at 20 days but via trip trading and dropping I worked way less. In July, I had my schedule down to a late show on a Monday and done that Friday at 6am and off july 4th. I ended up picking up a trip. Once again, at the worst seniority possible during the busiest time for flying.

As far as profit, you do realize they bought over 600 million worth of stock in the first quarter? So tack on 645 million to the 245 million and AA didnt do so bad. Once they stop buying aircraft next year the financials will look way better. But whatever, I forgot, SWA is the only decent airline on the planet. If you said the following "AA has over 20 billion in debt and if the economy goes south then there could be trouble long term" and I wouldnt have argued with you.

BobZ

AA isnt goin anywhere. Even if forced to reorganize thr airline still isnt going anywhere.
There are no longer pilot pensions at risk so those holding the debt have the most to worry about.

Varsity

They are buying stock net, if you take that into account they basically didn't make any money at all Q1.

Impending 1bn pension payment in 2020? Most of their aircraft financing is syndicated in Libor+spread pools. As interest rates go up the liabilities will increase while the face value of the note drops, driving it insolvent. If AA takes a hit to their credit rating (likely) the banks will drop out of the pool, skyrocketing financing costs overnight (death spiral).

I used to be an analyst in institutional finance, but I'm sure the lifelong pilots on APC know more.

BobZ

Ok. So all that happens and AA files. What happens then? Liquidation? Fragmentation?

Given the pilot situation odds are pilots will go with equipment to another major. With the acquiring airlines compensation and benefit template.

AAfng

Ok then, I stand corrected