ICAO/FAA Set to Approve Age 68 Retirement
01-01-2020, 05:31 PM
#31
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Originally Posted by Andy
Soooo.... how does all of this square with the rumored single pilot ops within the next decade?
Both an age increase and single pilot ops are future possibilities. However, I suspect that they're mutually exclusive. And I'd expect single pilot ops to win out over an age increase.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/28/airb...lanes-cto.html
An FAA study got nixed on the last FAA reauthorization bill, but I'd expect it to continue to resurface:
https://www.aircargonews.net/technol...rization-bill/
Both an age increase and single pilot ops are future possibilities. However, I suspect that they're mutually exclusive. And I'd expect single pilot ops to win out over an age increase.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/28/airb...lanes-cto.html
An FAA study got nixed on the last FAA reauthorization bill, but I'd expect it to continue to resurface:
https://www.aircargonews.net/technol...rization-bill/
01-01-2020, 05:55 PM
#32
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Reality is no one knows. All it takes is one politician to push the issue hard and it changes the dynamics. There might be significant public pushback, no appetite for the increase. So many moving parts.
01-01-2020, 06:18 PM
#33
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Originally Posted by Qotsaautopilot
Decades of CRM go out the window with one pilot. We and the people that regulate out jobs obviously have no idea how many mini decisions are made as a crew in a flight if they try single pilot. Did we learn nothing from captain van zanten?
Question. Which end state (single pilot OR age increase) will result in a greater cost reduction for the airlines? That's the likely solution.
If single piloted aircraft result in ticket prices that are 50 cents cheaper, that's what most passengers will opt for.
Like it or not, we've made flying so safe that fatal large commercial passenger aircraft accidents in the US over the last decade can be counted on one hand. Southwest 1380 was the last commercial passenger fatality and that was a single passenger fatality on April 17 2018. I think you have to go all the way back to Comair 5191 in April 2006 to find another passenger fatality on commercial passenger aircraft (I've excluded cargo fatalities).
01-01-2020, 06:33 PM
#34
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Originally Posted by Andy
I'm not arguing in favor of either change.
Question. Which end state (single pilot OR age increase) will result in a greater cost reduction for the airlines? That's the likely solution.
If single piloted aircraft result in ticket prices that are 50 cents cheaper, that's what most passengers will opt for.
Like it or not, we've made flying so safe that fatal large commercial passenger aircraft accidents in the US over the last decade can be counted on one hand. Southwest 1380 was the last commercial passenger fatality and that was a single passenger fatality on April 17 2018. I think you have to go all the way back to Comair 5191 in April 2006 to find another passenger fatality on commercial passenger aircraft (I've excluded cargo fatalities).
Question. Which end state (single pilot OR age increase) will result in a greater cost reduction for the airlines? That's the likely solution.
If single piloted aircraft result in ticket prices that are 50 cents cheaper, that's what most passengers will opt for.
Like it or not, we've made flying so safe that fatal large commercial passenger aircraft accidents in the US over the last decade can be counted on one hand. Southwest 1380 was the last commercial passenger fatality and that was a single passenger fatality on April 17 2018. I think you have to go all the way back to Comair 5191 in April 2006 to find another passenger fatality on commercial passenger aircraft (I've excluded cargo fatalities).
01-01-2020, 06:36 PM
#35
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Originally Posted by Bahamasflyer
Colgan 3407 but I get your point.
01-02-2020, 06:28 AM
#36
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Originally Posted by C2078
Reality is no one knows. All it takes is one politician to push the issue hard and it changes the dynamics. There might be significant public pushback, no appetite for the increase. So many moving parts.
IMO - we may not see it for a decade or more and it'll start on a smaller scale - think cargo and regional flying. Even then - the US will not be the first to try it out. We'll first see it overseas with likely mixed results. One major accident though and you'll see 2 pilots back into all larger pax aircraft faster than any admittance of guilt.
All in all - we'll likely see the shift in corp aircraft before the airlines ever go single pilot. A big fleet transition to single pilot ops can change the dynamic of the industry. The Citation XL/XLS and Lear 45/75 fleets come to mind. But you can probably find enough RAC's to fill any open seats...
01-02-2020, 08:15 AM
#37
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Originally Posted by OverUnderDone
IMO - we may not see it for a decade or more and it'll start on a smaller scale - think cargo and regional flying. Even then - the US will not be the first to try it out. We'll first see it overseas with likely mixed results. One major accident though and you'll see 2 pilots back into all larger pax aircraft faster than any admittance of guilt.
In the cargo business, there's a lot of work in progress to go straight to drone technology for small to large aircraft so they may just skip the single pilot testing for cargo companies.
How long after cargo carriers go drone will that shift over to passenger aircraft is a question mark. I'd expect single pilot operations during the transition.
When this technology starts getting implemented is probably less than a decade away and eliminate any pilot shortage/need to raise retirement age. It will also kill pilot wages, as it would create a huge glut of pilots.
01-02-2020, 08:26 AM
#38
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Where you'll likely first see remote piloted cargo aircraft is Alaska, and it'll be Caravan-sized aircraft. After some time of proving reliable there, those size aircraft will spread to domestic cargo feeder operations into rural areas of the Plains and Southwest.
We're a LONG way from commercial remote-piloted widebody (or narrowbody) transport aircraft in 121 cargo operations into LAX, ONT, MEM, SDF, IND, RFD, JFK, MIA, etc.
We're a LONG way from commercial remote-piloted widebody (or narrowbody) transport aircraft in 121 cargo operations into LAX, ONT, MEM, SDF, IND, RFD, JFK, MIA, etc.
01-02-2020, 08:27 AM
#39
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Could be way off base on this one, but I'd think it will either be 2 pilot or no pilot, no real in between. If there is one thing that has the potential to unite pilots, it's the threat losing half the pilot force and the stagnation/loss of wages that single pilot ops would bring. Not that i'm advocating for it, as I don't think I'll see it during my career, but imagine if just AAL/DAL/FDX/SWA/UPS pilots didn't show up to work one day. I'd think the companies/regulators have know to be prepared for such an event.
01-02-2020, 08:32 AM
#40
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Originally Posted by BoilerUP
We're a LONG way from commercial remote-piloted widebody (or narrowbody) transport aircraft in 121 cargo operations into LAX, ONT, MEM, SDF, IND, RFD, JFK, MIA, etc.
I don't know when or how it will be implemented, but drone technology is a big concern for me.
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