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ULCC or American?

Old 06-01-2022, 02:35 PM
  #181  
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The coming recession will drive everyone to use ULCCs and the legacies will go bankrupt, just like last time. Lol NOT.

This time the legacies have better pricing power and they will be able to make their money in places ULCCs can't touch. They'll be able to outcompete the ULCCs in contested markets, which is what they were expected to do last time, before everyone realized that overcapacity combined with 2000 era Orbitz style websites totally disarmed them.

ULCCs will be forced into mergers and I expect one Frankenstein of a company will be powerful enough to hold on to some vital markets, but the segment as a whole will shrink.
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Old 06-01-2022, 07:30 PM
  #182  
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Originally Posted by fadec View Post
The coming recession will drive everyone to use ULCCs and the legacies will go bankrupt, just like last time. Lol NOT.

This time the legacies have better pricing power and they will be able to make their money in places ULCCs can't touch. They'll be able to outcompete the ULCCs in contested markets, which is what they were expected to do last time, before everyone realized that overcapacity combined with 2000 era Orbitz style websites totally disarmed them.

ULCCs will be forced into mergers and I expect one Frankenstein of a company will be powerful enough to hold on to some vital markets, but the segment as a whole will shrink.
This train is going one direction and it’s gonna take a lot to put the brakes on. ULCC’s have been taking market share from legacies over the past 20 years.

What exactly will reverse that because there’s been a few recessions and they continue to take market share.
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Old 06-01-2022, 08:37 PM
  #183  
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Originally Posted by DamnThatWasFast View Post
If you look at the AA retirements. Many are retiring before 65, not many want to stay to 65 never mind 67. Plus, to get to 67 you have to stay healthy. Also a challenge. I wouldn't worry about 67 rule, not likely to happen any ways.
It could probably slow down the party but not a whole lot. So, the numbers for now are showing most do not retire before 65. If you are at 65 chances are you are healthy enough to fly to 67. Finally everything happening to the industry now will probably change the retirement age if only temporarily. None of this should change outlook for a new hire though. For the OP, you are to be justifiably concerned about AA's debt level. Its not going to go away no matter how robust the industry remains. Widebody or not, commuting or not, the health of your career airline will affect your life more than anything else. I have witnessed it. I have experienced it. Good luck in your decision though however you choose.
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Old 06-03-2022, 12:27 AM
  #184  
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Originally Posted by DamnThatWasFast View Post
If you look at the AA retirements. Many are retiring before 65, not many want to stay to 65 never mind 67. Plus, to get to 67 you have to stay healthy. Also a challenge. I wouldn't worry about 67 rule, not likely to happen any ways.
AA domestic schedules are pretty rough so they’re seeing 10-15% more retire per year than age 65 mandated because those folks are miserable. The Group IV crowd… they’re leaving kicking and screaming with 1000+hrs of sick time in their banks because they enjoy their 3 day trips to Frankfurt too much to hang up the spurs.
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Old 06-03-2022, 02:06 AM
  #185  
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Originally Posted by Rhdicjkwso View Post
This train is going one direction and it’s gonna take a lot to put the brakes on. ULCC’s have been taking market share from legacies over the past 20 years.

What exactly will reverse that because there’s been a few recessions and they continue to take market share.
ULCCs have taken market share from Greyhound, not Legacy carriers.
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Old 06-03-2022, 02:52 AM
  #186  
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Originally Posted by Rhdicjkwso View Post
This train is going one direction and it’s gonna take a lot to put the brakes on. ULCC’s have been taking market share from legacies over the past 20 years.

What exactly will reverse that because there’s been a few recessions and they continue to take market share.
ULCCs have been creating more market share than taking directly.
That’s the point of their existence.
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Old 06-03-2022, 05:57 AM
  #187  
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The legacies have responded and have simply decided to hire away ULCC seniority lists and recruits. And will continue to do so for the better part of a decade.
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Old 06-03-2022, 07:28 AM
  #188  
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Originally Posted by threeighteen View Post
ULCCs have taken market share from Greyhound, not Legacy carriers.
An average income family is not going to take Greyhound to Orlando. They will fly. But they’re not going to pay more to fly a legacy carrier.
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Old 06-03-2022, 07:46 AM
  #189  
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Originally Posted by Rhdicjkwso View Post
An average income family is not going to take Greyhound to Orlando. They will fly. But they’re not going to pay more to fly a legacy carrier.
Yeah, but once you factor in luggage and strollers, assigned seats together, and what not, you won’t save anything going on a ULCC.
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Old 06-03-2022, 07:59 AM
  #190  
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Originally Posted by JulesWinfield View Post
Yeah, but once you factor in luggage and strollers, assigned seats together, and what not, you won’t save anything going on a ULCC.
Better than connecting in Atlanta with 4 young kids.
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