SaturnV

^^That’s mic drop worthy right there.

I will say, pilots come on here to ask advice on this airline vs that airline based on what MIGHT happen so these threads are usually always hypothetical in nature. Of course there are no guarantees of anything in life I was just laying the math out there. I’m sure the number of early 30’s captains will continue to increase dramatically at AA barring anything catastrophic.

Keep stacking y’all!

SSlow

Not even close. He/she is a known troll on these boards.

Window_Seat

The way this thread has been going it sounds like the LCC pilots are finally going to get an industry leading contract (instead of bringing the industry down). Haha!

Go to American. Self driving cars in 5 years. QOL includes income. If you can work less days to make more money do it and hire a chauffer to take you to the AA base. So many retirements ahead.

Legacies have sub 30 year old captains...holding lines...getting a 45k+ bonus tomorrow...

Window_Seat

With the "Big 3," UPS, SW, and FedEx hiring 5000 pilots a year indefinitely I'd be pretty concerned about staffing.

If you cant hire FOs, you cant be the Captain.

Qotsaautopilot

I’m at a ULCC in the left seat. It is true ULCC pilots can make the same as legacy pilots.

The thing that my fellow ULCC pilots fail to include is that to make that money you have to work the system, work more, or both compared their legacy counterparts just flying their line. Lower retirement and no profit sharing. Add also widebody flying and compensation at the legacies and it’s not a comparison. Seniority movement was fast but the legacy retirements are coming and seniority movement at the legacies will be as fast or faster than the ULCC moving forward simply because of the hiring demographics of the ULCC pilots already hired.

I find that many ULCC pilots have a bit of Napoleon syndrome. It’s fine to be happy with what you have but legacy compensation it is not. I have a seniority percentage that’s not worth giving up because of the age demographics hired at delta and United the last couple years. I’d move fast for many years at a legacy and hit a seniority wall when I turn about 60 years old with most guys senior to me being younger. AA might be a different story but for a new hire or junior FO at a ULCC is highly likely to have more career progression and make much more at a legacy.

Andy

Excellent post.

ULCCs work for some, not for others.

A big reason why I like the big 3 is getting to fly different aircraft to different destinations. I've flown the 727,737, 757,767,777, 787 and am currently flying the A319/320. I couldn't do that at LUV, JBLU, or an ULCC.

I commute to work, but spend less time getting to/from work than most cube workers in large cities so commuting doesn't bother me. YMMV. (Sure, I'd prefer to live in domicile but wifey doesn't want to move and the cost of living is much lower where we live).

Everyone I've flown with who previously flew for an ULCC is impressed with the support given to crews by United. Is it quantifiable? Not really, just like the tradeoffs of commuting.

Salary/benefits are better and will likely stay better at the big 3 but the gap has definitely narrowed on wages.

One thing about ULCCs is that the top of the seniority lists are fairly young so there won't be much upward movement from retirements; almost all growth will have to come from expansion. The big 3 have a ton of retirements but grow at a slower rate than ULCCs. And if one wants to just fly the bus/guppy at the big 3, they'll be able to reach the top 25% of the list relatively quickly.

What happens in the next downturn? No one knows, but I don't expect the same response (giving up market share) by the legacies as in past because balance sheets are in better shape at the big 3, including AA. And debt is CHEAP right now, as anyone who ever had a 10%+ mortgage in years past will tell you.

FNGFO

You don’t seem to understand the growth going on at ULCC’s. I’ll be in the top 30% of the company at the end of our next aircraft order. Well under a decade into employment here.

I think the legacies will generally offer more money and better opportunities for varied flying. But the worm keeps turning. Today’s AA may be tomorrow’s Pan Am, and today’s ULCC may be tomorrow’s SWA. Or completely opposite of that.

Spirit actually made money in the last downturn. Spending pressures hit everyone during economic lows and plenty of people will look for bottom dollar travel who once splurged on business class travel. The ULCC model is actually a bit weather resistant with regard to a recession. Obviously none are weather proof, but the model is predicated on oil being considerably more expensive than it is now.

No no one will know how it all shakes out until we’re all polishing recliners in our jumpsuits while perusing QVC.

Excargodog

Why do you think what will happen in the NEXT downturn will be any different than what happened in the LAST downturn? In the last 16 years all three of the Big Three went into bankruptcy and forced bankruptcy concessions on their pilots. Yes, I know, some people believe that the large number of retirements coming at the legacies will insulate them from the (inevitable) next economic downturn, but us that realistic? No legacy is going to be retiring a thousand pilots a year. The Big Three furloughed over 8000 pilots back in the 2001-2004 timeframe and it was five years before they were recalled - and then recalled to a lower bankruptcy concessionary payscale. SWA - more of a ULCC then than it is now managed to avoid furloughs.

Some business knowledgeable people believe that today’s ULCCs may actually be more RESILIENT in a downturn than the legacies:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/deandon.../#3cc8dbf025e2

just remember, past is generally prologue, and the history of the aviation industry is littered with the wreckage of airlines like PanAm, TWA, and others that would have seemed too big to fail and the safe bet at the time.

Dunkin

I doubt anyone would leave AA for an ULCC but there are probably plenty that would leave those carriers in a second for AA. Also the debt thing is overblown, I bet the guys worried about debt are the same guys that pay down their 4% mortgage early instead of investing that $ into the market or side businesses. I’ve used debt to greatly increase my net worth over the past 10 years vs the guy that just paid down debt.

Qotsaautopilot

If your primary home is paid off I’d say great. We carry so much risk on our medical certificate. Any one of us could medical out before our next exam. We are racking up guys who will never fly again due to fumes. Even with LTD income I think many pilots would have a major problem adjusting their lifestyle needed if owning multiple properties mortgaged to the hilt. Even then some of those properties my have to sold and potentially at a loss if the housing market is down.

If your primary home is paid off you can take much higher investment risk. Fact is if LTD doesn’t cover the cost of servicing all that debt then one might find themselves out of their family home if it’s not paid for.

I’ll continue to pay down my 3.37% mortgage so that if something terrible happens I know we will be able to stay in our home and not moving into a crummy apartment.

I was single at the time and recovered over more than a decade but I got furloughed and ended up in negative equity in my house simultaneously in 2008. Lost my home as a result. 4% being low or not if you can’t service the debt you’re out on the street