Industry Predictions
03-22-2020, 07:45 AM
#22
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2010
Posts: 48
the industry is going to snap right back in a few months, and some airlines will continue to grow.
no furloughs.
no pay cuts.
a few months of reduced hour lines, then all this will be behind us. Go enjoy your families and stop stressing out over this.
no furloughs.
no pay cuts.
a few months of reduced hour lines, then all this will be behind us. Go enjoy your families and stop stressing out over this.
03-22-2020, 07:50 AM
#23
Banned
Joined APC: Mar 2013
Posts: 384
Originally Posted by LimaBravoDelta
I’m an equity trader as well as a pilot. My take on this situation...
First.... the DJIA could easily see a 50% drop. Several quarters of negative GDP... probably 3-4 quarters. Unprecedented unemployment in all sectors for 1-2 years. Businesses in bankruptcy, small businesses being hit particularly hard. Possible that 50-75% of small businesses won’t make it through this. Families dealing with death of relatives. The resolve of people all over the world will be seriously tested. People not being able to pay their mortgages and car loans. Cars will be repossessed and houses forclosed on. Businesses will cut out business travel and the general public will stop flying. I saw this after 9/11. Planes flying almost empty. 15-20 pax on a 767 was the norm for several months.
The actual virus is here to stay forever. A vaccine will have to be developed before daily life and markets start to recover. The feds will be printing so much cash inflation will be an issue. Time frame for just the vaccine is a minimum of a year away. Total recovery till we are back to where we were pre collapse will be 3-5 years. Yes.... furloughs for the most junior pilots will be 3-5 years. New hiring beyond 3-5 years. Pilots in early training borrowing money should just walk away if the cost of training and loan repayment will be a hardship which it obviously will be.
In my opinion the airlines don’t deserve a bailout. They’ve been buying back their stock pushing stock prices artificially higher for years. Profits in the airline industry have been unprecedented in the last decade. They should be given low interest loans. If you don’t save cash for a rainy day then you get what you deserve. Pilot contracts will be renegotiated and salaries will likely be cut in half.
Sorry for the grim outlook but I believe it’s realistic.
First.... the DJIA could easily see a 50% drop. Several quarters of negative GDP... probably 3-4 quarters. Unprecedented unemployment in all sectors for 1-2 years. Businesses in bankruptcy, small businesses being hit particularly hard. Possible that 50-75% of small businesses won’t make it through this. Families dealing with death of relatives. The resolve of people all over the world will be seriously tested. People not being able to pay their mortgages and car loans. Cars will be repossessed and houses forclosed on. Businesses will cut out business travel and the general public will stop flying. I saw this after 9/11. Planes flying almost empty. 15-20 pax on a 767 was the norm for several months.
The actual virus is here to stay forever. A vaccine will have to be developed before daily life and markets start to recover. The feds will be printing so much cash inflation will be an issue. Time frame for just the vaccine is a minimum of a year away. Total recovery till we are back to where we were pre collapse will be 3-5 years. Yes.... furloughs for the most junior pilots will be 3-5 years. New hiring beyond 3-5 years. Pilots in early training borrowing money should just walk away if the cost of training and loan repayment will be a hardship which it obviously will be.
In my opinion the airlines don’t deserve a bailout. They’ve been buying back their stock pushing stock prices artificially higher for years. Profits in the airline industry have been unprecedented in the last decade. They should be given low interest loans. If you don’t save cash for a rainy day then you get what you deserve. Pilot contracts will be renegotiated and salaries will likely be cut in half.
Sorry for the grim outlook but I believe it’s realistic.
03-22-2020, 07:52 AM
#24
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2008
Posts: 4,921
Originally Posted by LimaBravoDelta
I’m an equity trader as well as a pilot. My take on this situation...
First.... the DJIA could easily see a 50% drop. Several quarters of negative GDP... probably 3-4 quarters. Unprecedented unemployment in all sectors for 1-2 years. Businesses in bankruptcy, small businesses being hit particularly hard. Possible that 50-75% of small businesses won’t make it through this. Families dealing with death of relatives. The resolve of people all over the world will be seriously tested. People not being able to pay their mortgages and car loans. Cars will be repossessed and houses forclosed on. Businesses will cut out business travel and the general public will stop flying. I saw this after 9/11. Planes flying almost empty. 15-20 pax on a 767 was the norm for several months.
The actual virus is here to stay forever. A vaccine will have to be developed before daily life and markets start to recover. The feds will be printing so much cash inflation will be an issue. Time frame for just the vaccine is a minimum of a year away. Total recovery till we are back to where we were pre collapse will be 3-5 years. Yes.... furloughs for the most junior pilots will be 3-5 years. New hiring beyond 3-5 years. Pilots in early training borrowing money should just walk away if the cost of training and loan repayment will be a hardship which it obviously will be.
In my opinion the airlines don’t deserve a bailout. They’ve been buying back their stock pushing stock prices artificially higher for years. Profits in the airline industry have been unprecedented in the last decade. They should be given low interest loans. If you don’t save cash for a rainy day then you get what you deserve. Pilot contracts will be renegotiated and salaries will likely be cut in half.
Sorry for the grim outlook but I believe it’s realistic.
First.... the DJIA could easily see a 50% drop. Several quarters of negative GDP... probably 3-4 quarters. Unprecedented unemployment in all sectors for 1-2 years. Businesses in bankruptcy, small businesses being hit particularly hard. Possible that 50-75% of small businesses won’t make it through this. Families dealing with death of relatives. The resolve of people all over the world will be seriously tested. People not being able to pay their mortgages and car loans. Cars will be repossessed and houses forclosed on. Businesses will cut out business travel and the general public will stop flying. I saw this after 9/11. Planes flying almost empty. 15-20 pax on a 767 was the norm for several months.
The actual virus is here to stay forever. A vaccine will have to be developed before daily life and markets start to recover. The feds will be printing so much cash inflation will be an issue. Time frame for just the vaccine is a minimum of a year away. Total recovery till we are back to where we were pre collapse will be 3-5 years. Yes.... furloughs for the most junior pilots will be 3-5 years. New hiring beyond 3-5 years. Pilots in early training borrowing money should just walk away if the cost of training and loan repayment will be a hardship which it obviously will be.
In my opinion the airlines don’t deserve a bailout. They’ve been buying back their stock pushing stock prices artificially higher for years. Profits in the airline industry have been unprecedented in the last decade. They should be given low interest loans. If you don’t save cash for a rainy day then you get what you deserve. Pilot contracts will be renegotiated and salaries will likely be cut in half.
Sorry for the grim outlook but I believe it’s realistic.
03-22-2020, 08:13 AM
#25
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,281
My realistic gut feel...
Federal aid keeps airlines on lifeline through Q2/Q3. Very reduced flying, lots of PTO for a few months. Aid will have strings, they won't be able to just kick everyone to the curb, it will be kinder and gentler than previous iterations... reduced lines, LOA w/ bennies, etc.
Once the dust starts to settle and airlines think they understand the longer-term, then they analyze furloughs. Domestic side 20-35% staff reductions needed mid-term, HOWEVER they will also look at retirements and expected timeline for economic recovery, and that may temper furloughs (maybe PTO with currency instead?).
International staffing is in worse shape, and may have a different recovery timeline, people will feel the need for domestic travel before international travel. Obviously more staff reductions there, really hard to guess magnitude but might be as high as 80%. Again staff requirements =/= furloughs necessarily, they have to look at all factors and for widebodies that includes sim availability to shift bodies around for years to come.
The economy will start to recover once the pandemic appears to have a clear trajectory to the finish. Vaccine and other med availability will help. A good vaccine that can be deployed wholesale will end the pandemic in a matter of weeks.
The question is how long does the economic recovery drag out?
Too many failures and lost jobs for a V-correction at this point. But I don't think it's going to be ten years either, with a little luck and optimism, and a lot of government intervention, it could ramp up pretty quickly and be back in 2-3 years (maybe even as early as next year, but I'm not planning on that).
Federal aid keeps airlines on lifeline through Q2/Q3. Very reduced flying, lots of PTO for a few months. Aid will have strings, they won't be able to just kick everyone to the curb, it will be kinder and gentler than previous iterations... reduced lines, LOA w/ bennies, etc.
Once the dust starts to settle and airlines think they understand the longer-term, then they analyze furloughs. Domestic side 20-35% staff reductions needed mid-term, HOWEVER they will also look at retirements and expected timeline for economic recovery, and that may temper furloughs (maybe PTO with currency instead?).
International staffing is in worse shape, and may have a different recovery timeline, people will feel the need for domestic travel before international travel. Obviously more staff reductions there, really hard to guess magnitude but might be as high as 80%. Again staff requirements =/= furloughs necessarily, they have to look at all factors and for widebodies that includes sim availability to shift bodies around for years to come.
The economy will start to recover once the pandemic appears to have a clear trajectory to the finish. Vaccine and other med availability will help. A good vaccine that can be deployed wholesale will end the pandemic in a matter of weeks.
The question is how long does the economic recovery drag out?
Too many failures and lost jobs for a V-correction at this point. But I don't think it's going to be ten years either, with a little luck and optimism, and a lot of government intervention, it could ramp up pretty quickly and be back in 2-3 years (maybe even as early as next year, but I'm not planning on that).
03-22-2020, 08:46 AM
#26
New Hire
Joined APC: Aug 2019
Posts: 5
While the economy will recover over time, I think there will be a permanent loss of large chunks of business travel. The companies that survive are going to increasingly move to a telework model as the authorities keep people trapped in their home for potentially months on end. They may end up finding it to be incredibly efficient and never go back to the face-to-face type of business dealings that we see today.
The other effect may be a movement of large parts of the supply chain back to the US, as companies weigh cheap labor against the potential of future global supply chain disruptions like the ones we have seen so far this year. Without the need to go abroad to create and manage international supply chains, the need for long-haul flights will decrease (particularly the “high-value” clientele that fills the business class/premium seats). International business will also be able to be managed via virtual means.
TL;DR: if this goes on for months, we will emerge as a much more isolated world.
The other effect may be a movement of large parts of the supply chain back to the US, as companies weigh cheap labor against the potential of future global supply chain disruptions like the ones we have seen so far this year. Without the need to go abroad to create and manage international supply chains, the need for long-haul flights will decrease (particularly the “high-value” clientele that fills the business class/premium seats). International business will also be able to be managed via virtual means.
TL;DR: if this goes on for months, we will emerge as a much more isolated world.
03-22-2020, 08:59 AM
#27
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 4,116
Well. Im heading to school today. Paired with a new hire FO. Im guessing he is gona be sent home after training.
Projecting the daily circumstances a year or two out paints a really bad picture.
I just do not believe the American people are going to accept being locked down for any extended period of time.
Just as the hiv panic-demic altered behaviors....permanently. People did in relatively short order go back to having sex.
because its an integral part of being human.
The population altered behaviors. They adapted. And they went back to living life. This is NO WHERE near the same threat.
80% of hiv cases did not have mild symptoms and recover fully as is the case with this flu.
Americans are generally not risk adverse. In a couple weeks....and not seeing people dropping dead in the street....people are going to begin calculating the risk and reward.
And they are going to go back to living their lives.
Projecting the daily circumstances a year or two out paints a really bad picture.
I just do not believe the American people are going to accept being locked down for any extended period of time.
Just as the hiv panic-demic altered behaviors....permanently. People did in relatively short order go back to having sex.
because its an integral part of being human.
The population altered behaviors. They adapted. And they went back to living life. This is NO WHERE near the same threat.
80% of hiv cases did not have mild symptoms and recover fully as is the case with this flu.
Americans are generally not risk adverse. In a couple weeks....and not seeing people dropping dead in the street....people are going to begin calculating the risk and reward.
And they are going to go back to living their lives.
03-22-2020, 09:11 AM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 774
Originally Posted by BobZ
Well. Im heading to school today. Paired with a new hire FO. Im guessing he is gona be sent home after training.
Projecting the daily circumstances a year or two out paints a really bad picture.
I just do not believe the American people are going to accept being locked down for any extended period of time.
Just as the hiv panic-demic altered behaviors....permanently. People did in relatively short order go back to having sex.
because its an integral part of being human.
The population altered behaviors. They adapted. And they went back to living life. This is NO WHERE near the same threat.
80% of hiv cases did not have mild symptoms and recover fully as is the case with this flu.
Americans are generally not risk adverse. In a couple weeks....and not seeing people dropping dead in the street....people are going to begin calculating the risk and reward.
And they are going to go back to living their lives.
Projecting the daily circumstances a year or two out paints a really bad picture.
I just do not believe the American people are going to accept being locked down for any extended period of time.
Just as the hiv panic-demic altered behaviors....permanently. People did in relatively short order go back to having sex.
because its an integral part of being human.
The population altered behaviors. They adapted. And they went back to living life. This is NO WHERE near the same threat.
80% of hiv cases did not have mild symptoms and recover fully as is the case with this flu.
Americans are generally not risk adverse. In a couple weeks....and not seeing people dropping dead in the street....people are going to begin calculating the risk and reward.
And they are going to go back to living their lives.
03-22-2020, 10:07 AM
#29
On Reserve
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 10
Originally Posted by gollum
New account just to post this tells me you dont really believe in what you are saying!
03-22-2020, 10:28 AM
#30
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Position: On the hotel shuttle
Posts: 5,815
Yeah, I'm okay if we don't go back to shaking hands.
I'm also okay if parts of the world don't go back to kissing on the cheeks when they meet strangers.
But washing hands frequently, I say we keep that one.
I'm also okay if parts of the world don't go back to kissing on the cheeks when they meet strangers.
But washing hands frequently, I say we keep that one.
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