Reuters Predicts Big 4 Consolidation
01-05-2021 | 09:03 AM
#11
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
I think it's more likely to see a big four airline merge with a smaller one, that might be play out more than once.
Might also be a tail wagging the dog scenario, with a smaller, but better financed, airline in the driver's seat. Too bad for Doug that there's nobody left who's bigger than AA.
Might also be a tail wagging the dog scenario, with a smaller, but better financed, airline in the driver's seat. Too bad for Doug that there's nobody left who's bigger than AA.
01-05-2021 | 09:09 AM
#12
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I think it's more likely to see a big four airline merge with a smaller one, that might be play out more than once.
Might also be a tail wagging the dog scenario, with a smaller, but better financed, airline in the driver's seat. Too bad for Doug that there's nobody left who's bigger than AA.
Might also be a tail wagging the dog scenario, with a smaller, but better financed, airline in the driver's seat. Too bad for Doug that there's nobody left who's bigger than AA.
Doug should have left AA for Alaska at the top of the market, then he could have done it all over again!
01-05-2021 | 09:12 AM
#13
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What is really hurting the Big Three is the multi-type fleet and the International and business flyer dependent models right now due at least to some extent to the effect seniority and training requirements have on multi type fleets.
Sure, Spirit and Frontier merging would give economy of scale, but those two really aren’t in serious economic trouble or costing the US government much anyway. Hawaiian and Jet Blue? Until business travel turns around JetBlue is in trouble, until international turns around Hawaiian is in trouble. Yoking them together probably decreases the prospects for either of them.
Nope, I think what they are talking about are the three airlines that the government is spending the most money on. The LCC/ULCC business model was designed for hard times.
Sure, Spirit and Frontier merging would give economy of scale, but those two really aren’t in serious economic trouble or costing the US government much anyway. Hawaiian and Jet Blue? Until business travel turns around JetBlue is in trouble, until international turns around Hawaiian is in trouble. Yoking them together probably decreases the prospects for either of them.
Nope, I think what they are talking about are the three airlines that the government is spending the most money on. The LCC/ULCC business model was designed for hard times.
01-05-2021 | 09:12 AM
#14
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Not sure I see it, at least between the big four themselves. AA and UA?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2991JV
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2991JV
01-05-2021 | 10:24 AM
#15
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
The premise of the article was that the fed will in fact allow (and possibly fund) mergers under dire economic circumstances, which would not fly otherwise. It gave some examples from '08.
I don't really see mergers between the big four, but I do agree that the trust-busters would might take a pass under the circumstance of catastrophic industry disruption.
I don't really see mergers between the big four, but I do agree that the trust-busters would might take a pass under the circumstance of catastrophic industry disruption.
01-05-2021 | 11:31 AM
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01-05-2021 | 11:59 AM
#20
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From: Fully Retired
Not sure I see it, at least between the big four themselves. AA and UA?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2991JV
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2991JV
Four biggest consolidating? Not going to be permitted. Merger with a smaller, possibly. Too big to fail, likely, with government bailout, possibly. Chapter 11 reorganization, likely. Chapter 7 and going out of business, liquidation, not likely.
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