![So how BADLY will [Testing] hurt the Big 3?](/iconimages/major/so-how-badly-will-testing-hurt-big-3-a_ltr.gif)
So how BADLY will [Testing] hurt the Big 3?
01-17-2021, 07:19 PM
#41
Perennial Reserve
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Joined APC: Jan 2018
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/benbald...h=2a2f1f234f50
Yet as appealing and valiant as this effort is, testing on its own is not the best way to reverse travel limitation rules in place. This isn't likely to happen until there is wide spread distribution of proven vaccines.
The airline industry is in peril. Most airlines end their days with less cash than they start with, and while airlines have all built up their liquidity this position is not tenable. Delta Airlines recently announced that they hoped to be “cash neutral” by the second quarter, but caveated this suggesting they know this may not be the case. As long as airlines are losing cash everyday, the industry can not be considered out of the woods.
The airline industry is in peril. Most airlines end their days with less cash than they start with, and while airlines have all built up their liquidity this position is not tenable. Delta Airlines recently announced that they hoped to be “cash neutral” by the second quarter, but caveated this suggesting they know this may not be the case. As long as airlines are losing cash everyday, the industry can not be considered out of the woods.
01-19-2021, 08:38 AM
#42
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Posts: 504
Had to learn about Bayes theorem in statistics in college. Interesting stuff that’s poorly understood in lots of highly talented and well educated populations that have forgotten statistics or never were exposed to it. We learned about it in terms of prostate cancer. Because the positivity rate of prostate cancer is so low in the general population false positives are more common than false negatives, which is true regardless of the test used or even what is being tested for. It’s purely a product of statistics, without regard to the specifics. A lot of prostate cancer treatments are unnecessary because an extremely high proportion of men are tested sometime in their life, but a relatively small number will actually have it. The accuracy of the test is not perfect and as a result statistically many false positives will occur.
The same thing applies to literally any imperfect test in any field. No matter how close to perfect, a test that isn’t 100% accurate broadly applied across a large sample size that skews towards either very low prevalence or very high prevalence will have a high rate of either false positives or false negatives. Pure math.
Doesnt really matter in a pandemic where you’re trying to slow the spread, though. It’s much better to have false positives in that case, instead of false negatives.
The same thing applies to literally any imperfect test in any field. No matter how close to perfect, a test that isn’t 100% accurate broadly applied across a large sample size that skews towards either very low prevalence or very high prevalence will have a high rate of either false positives or false negatives. Pure math.
Doesnt really matter in a pandemic where you’re trying to slow the spread, though. It’s much better to have false positives in that case, instead of false negatives.
01-19-2021, 08:43 AM
#43
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Posts: 504
Tossing a coin is more accurate method of determining prostate cancer than PSA screening:
https://www.researchgate.net/publica...oy_false_myths
https://www.researchgate.net/publica...oy_false_myths
01-19-2021, 09:03 AM
#44
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2012
Posts: 2,030
Originally Posted by Jdub2
Tossing a coin is more accurate method of determining prostate cancer than PSA screening:
https://www.researchgate.net/publica...oy_false_myths
https://www.researchgate.net/publica...oy_false_myths
01-19-2021, 10:42 AM
#48
Prime Minister/Moderator
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Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,275
Originally Posted by ImperialxRat
Isn’t the covid test extremely painful? I haven’t had it done but have heard it’s not pleasant.
01-19-2021, 11:29 AM
#49
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Posts: 1,316
Originally Posted by usmc-sgt
My twice tested 10 and 6 year old say it’s not a big deal at all.
01-19-2021, 12:29 PM
#50
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2018
Posts: 1,091
Originally Posted by Xtreme87
Can I ask why you felt the need to subject your kids to such a procedure? Considering kids don’t even get impacted by covid as much.
They don’t even stick the Q-tip in your nose very far anymore, certainly not like they were doing in the beginning of the year. It’s pretty much a non-event these days.
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