do you think other airlines will be affected less so than SWA? Less than 500 pilots retiring from SWA in the next 3 years...

The ULCCs are probably not affected much by the change.

The whole idea is to slow down the hiring needs at the big 3, which is what's causing the attrition at other carriers. Slow it down so OO only loses 100 pilots per month.

Looking at the thread on the WN union page, it seems the 60/30 is accurate.

It won't matter. It could be 100% opposing the change and it still won't matter.

I suspect SWAPA already knows what they intend to do.

Look how they handled vacation. They polled us on changes to vacation bidding in what, 2015? The pilot group overwhelmingly asked for a change… and here we are in 2022, with the senior folks still block bidding the whole summer and using those weeks as a commodity to trade for premium weeks throughout the calendar, then bidding premium over the summer vacation that some family with school aged kids would’ve given their right arm for.

Is SWAPA the pilot group that is behind the push? Are they individually lobbying Lindsey Graham? Are they acting in conjunction with other unions, or just doing what they want to do? Is the SWA pilot group pushing SWAPA, or is it SWAPA pushing their pilots?

I think SWA already has an insanely high upgrade time and slow movement compared to others. So it would just be the straw. We are at what, 12 years upgrade right now? And people are sitting on reserve, often commuting to reserve out of base, for 4-5 years?

It is a senior pilots game at any airline but I feel like at SWA more so than most. Guys that might have spent one month on reserve repeatedly voting against reserve protection while the rest of us are sitting on reserve for years in a row getting hammered every day. Unable to get good vacation. Displaced, commuting long distances. I may be wrong but I sure feel like the difference between a senior SWA CA and a junior FO is like Bezos vs. one of his factory workers. I'm personally over it.

The management at airlines are behind the push. Reducing training costs for two years is a big savings for all airlines. They're probably making a lot of campaign contributions right now, spreading it around among politicians they expect to be in office next year - good timing since it's an election year.
They'll trot out some willing pilots to testify that raising the age is a good thing to help alleviate the shortage. They'll get AARP support on it to oppose age discrimination. They'll point out that it will save the social security trust fund money.
But all of that's kubuki theater for the public - the political contributions will ensure passage of an age change. We're just pawns in the game.

My guess is that ICAO's rules will also change within a year or two after the US. Because you can bet there will be plenty of palms greased.

Exactly right. Jeffery Skiles is already being used to push for the age increase. It will be exactly like last time without any extra cognitive testing or studies and we all know it won't solve a thing.