Originally Posted by thrust

Sounds like you’ve made up your mind already.

If you read these forums or talked to Continental/United pilots in the 2009-2013 time frame, a lot of the same concerns re: AA were present at UAL. Terrible management being at the center of all the issues. UAL’s stakeholders made the right decision to fire the moron Smisek, a new management team came in and turned things around drastically (and like Delta, hired an excellent PR team to convince you and remind you of their awesomeness).

The industry is cyclical. Isom et al can’t be in power forever. Hopefully.

Originally Posted by Swakid8

Lol, Doug Parker entered the chat lol. If AA BOD we’re ok with Doug Park for so long, as long as Isom meets the BOD wants and needs. No changes will occur…

Originally Posted by Scar09

I would stay at AA, based on your time here that means you have napkin math of 2100-2500 people below you. With AA planning on hiring 2000 more next year. That’s 4100-4500. Say you go to UA in Jan and they hire 2000-2500 next year, you are in the same spot as now just with a lot more younger folks than you that are flying the widebodies there that will always have the seniority over you.

like others said go all in at UPS if that’s your goal. If you are just wanting to fly WB then you will get it within a year here at AA, maybe sooner with the new vacancy since we all know those numbers they don’t mean a lot. But also, drop long mil orders for a year or 2 if you can take a 2 year agr gig flying the c-17 and come back with great seniority.

Remember most junior guy gets furloughed (which you know this), I would rather have a bigger pad on that and right now you are building a nice one.

also, at some point UA has to retire those old 75/76’s so how much of that new WB order is replacement vs growth? They are def figuring it out on using their 75’s to look at new markets before putting a 78 on it something we can’t do right now.

lastly airlines ebb and flows, who’s number one today isn’t necessarily going to be number one tomorrow. But your seniority sure matters.

best of luck! Make the right choice for you and your family try to keep emotions out of it.

Originally Posted by thrust

Sounds like you’ve made up your mind already.

If you read these forums or talked to Continental/United pilots in the 2009-2013 time frame, a lot of the same concerns re: AA were present at UAL. Terrible management being at the center of all the issues. UAL’s stakeholders made the right decision to fire the moron Smisek, a new management team came in and turned things around drastically (and like Delta, hired an excellent PR team to convince you and remind you of their awesomeness).

The industry is cyclical. Isom et al can’t be in power forever. Hopefully.

Originally Posted by Swakid8

Lol, Doug Parker entered the chat lol. If AA BOD we’re ok with Doug Park for so long, as long as Isom meets the BOD wants and needs. No changes will occur…

Originally Posted by Pilot4000

The UA CLE base is not going to grow past having 737's, so if you have a desire to fly widebody's you'll be commuting again, and the 737 at UA does plenty of regional type flying. If you can hold a line on a 777 at AA with two years on property, that is pretty darn good. It takes way longer than that at UA. Reserve at UA is not a lot of fun for a commuter. I think you're in a decent spot for when the music stops.

Good luck with your decision.

Originally Posted by thayer7th

Thanks ultimately leaving AA just lets me drive 15 mins to the CLE employee lot and and nothing else would change. The appeal of driving to work is so strong, but maybe it's not worth it for the seniority hit and I'll just look at moving.

Originally Posted by Gius5

United is hiring not just to replace retirements, but to fulfill the United Next plan which predicates on replacing regional lift with NB aircraft. Will they still go this route if the regional lift survives the pilot shortage? According to the FAA the number of new ATP certificates issued in 2022 is over 8,100! The 2021-2022 post covid period saw big hiring numbers thanks covid early retirements. If the 8,100 plus new ATP certificates continues year over year, the regionals will restock on pilots as mainline hiring slows down. Mainline hiring will slow down as they have already hired thousands to cover the sudden covid early retirements. All the hiring at this point is for future growth. United might find itself over supplied with pilots in the next couple years as it realizes that it doesn't need to grow to replace the regional lift anymore.

Granted, United's peak retirement numbers are still yet to come but still won't need to hire over 800 pilots annually to cover that.

At AA, theyre dont have any growth plans other than adding more 787's, theyre just covering huge retirement numbers. My bet is they order more widebodies in the future to replace all of the 76's and 330's they retired that will put them around 200 widebodies in the next 10 years. Thats a lot of lost profit opportunity that i dont think any airline BOD's will tolerate long term, but they have that delicate balance sheet to consider.

Throw a recession into the mix and United might be furloughing by 2024.

Originally Posted by threeighteen

Which is why I said the same thing. The only wave that matters is upward movement honestly. Hiring projections change constantly, growth can turn into shrinkage instantly, etc. He made the wave at AA and missed the wave at UA now that 3000(?) have been hired at UA in the last 18 months.

Originally Posted by goinaround

I mean there’s still a ton of retirements at UA to hire for. The trend arc goes up for a couple more years yet. AA is just….more. But also…it’s AA.

Originally Posted by thayer7th

LOL might be worth it.

AA just has so many problems and only 115 widebodies. If its not CLT, DFW or MIA they don't care about it. AA at ORD is tiny/senior.

Trying to convince myself I'm not on the wrong wave.