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Old 01-22-2024, 03:12 PM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by SoFloFlyer View Post
I totally get it, but it’s not an all or nothing. For those 10+ year guys, it makes sense. He specifically didn’t care for WB (like most NK CAs it seems). He cared about money and QOL (who doesn’t lol). He could obtain a QOL within 18 months of being a NB FO. CA pay would come shortly thereafter. To say good QOL in the left seat isn’t obtainable when you have 20+ years left before retirement is a bit disingenuous (we were comparing UA specifically).

Again, I don’t blame him for staying at all. Personally, I don’t think NK will be going anywhere. I’m just saying staying because of the fear of not getting comparable QOL and pay is a bit misguided. Especially since the quality of our pairings have really took a turn for the worse compared to some of the legacies.
QOL is subjective. For some it's a productive 4 day trip with no redeyes, for others it's the allure of swanky international layovers that look cool on IG but in reality barely give you enough time to do much else besides sleep.

For me personally, QOL means driving to work in south florida, getting some weekends and all holidays off while doing mostly day turns, and making close to 400k with retirement added in.

Right off the bat people like me are limited to AA, and I seriously doubt that I would see anything like narrowbody MIA CA doing mostly day turns within the near future, if even at all.

Last edited by SSlow; 01-22-2024 at 03:22 PM.
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Old 01-22-2024, 04:10 PM
  #42  
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Originally Posted by SSlow View Post
Those who started out in the industry around 15-20ish years ago (roughly aged late 30s to mid 40s currently) have seen career votality that is substantially above the norm, and arguably the worst in the history of aviation. Furloughs, bankruptcies, age 65, great recession, etc... Landing a job at Delta by 25 with tons of ongoing retirements wasn't a thing until recently.

A lot of us from that era are (were?) content to be somewhere with seniority and some semblence of stability. We aren't interested in starting over and commuting/moving for the upteenth time in our careers, unless we have no other choice. Everyone in that position has been there, done that, and bought many t shirts over the years.

Anyone over the age of 35 who has spent some time in the industry gets it.
Where's the damned like button?!
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Old 01-22-2024, 05:11 PM
  #43  
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Originally Posted by JulesWinfield View Post
That’s not true. The average age is late 30’s.
Median age of the last 1030 hired is 40.

25-29 yrs old - 91
30-34 - 194
35-39 - 225
40-44 - 190
45-49 - 159
50-54 - 116
55-59 - 42
60-60+ - 9



Here's a snapshot that will give a bit of a current estimate of the age of the cutoff to be a w/b CA (nearest 50) - pilots under 35 - 1400, under 40 - 3050, 41 and under - 3450, 42 and under - 3850, 43 and under - 4200, 44 and under - 4550.

There's currently 1040 777/787 CA line pilot jobs.

The junior Captain is currently 3,000 on the active list (actual seniority number is 300+ higher).

So roughly only 1/3 of the guys who can bid w/b CA actually bid it as soon as possbile.

Estimate a 2% (??) growth per year and you might find out what the bottom Captain's seniority number will be in 5, 10, 15, 20 years???
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Old 01-22-2024, 05:15 PM
  #44  
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Originally Posted by Sliceback View Post
Median age of the last 1030 hired is 40.

25-29 yrs old - 91
30-34 - 194
35-39 - 225
40-44 - 190
45-49 - 159
50-54 - 116
55-59 - 42
60-60+ - 9



Here's a snapshot that will give a bit of a current estimate of the age of the cutoff to be a w/b CA (nearest 50) - pilots under 35 - 1400, under 40 - 3050, 41 and under - 3450, 42 and under - 3850, 43 and under - 4200, 44 and under - 4550.

There's currently 1040 777/787 CA line pilot jobs.

The junior Captain is currently 3,000 on the active list (actual seniority number is 300+ higher).

So roughly only 1/3 of the guys who can bid w/b CA actually bid it as soon as possbile.

Estimate a 2% (??) growth per year and you might find out what the bottom Captain's seniority number will be in 5, 10, 15, 20 years???
now estimate a -2% growth rate. Anything’s possible in 20 years time.
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Old 01-22-2024, 09:31 PM
  #45  
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Originally Posted by Rhdicjkwso View Post
now estimate a -2% growth rate. Anything’s possible in 20 years time.
now estimate a -100% growth rate. Anything’s possible in 1 years time.

what a ridiculous post
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Old 01-23-2024, 02:19 AM
  #46  
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Originally Posted by SSlow View Post
QOL is subjective. For some it's a productive 4 day trip with no redeyes, for others it's the allure of swanky international layovers that look cool on IG but in reality barely give you enough time to do much else besides sleep.

For me personally, QOL means driving to work in south florida, getting some weekends and all holidays off while doing mostly day turns, and making close to 400k with retirement added in.

Right off the bat people like me are limited to AA, and I seriously doubt that I would see anything like narrowbody MIA CA doing mostly day turns within the near future, if even at all.
As far as AA, you’re right. I’m not sure what MIA looks like, but I would guess you’d be pretty close to that lifestyle in 5 years given all the retirements? I’m not entirely sure, but I bet it would be attainable within your career again. In Central Florida, there’s UA so that’s a different animal. I bet those guys could match their QOL quicker there than most other places.

Edit: QOL as in not get called a whole lot on reserve and be home for most of the time while being a CA.

Last edited by SoFloFlyer; 01-23-2024 at 02:43 AM.
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Old 01-23-2024, 06:05 AM
  #47  
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Originally Posted by SoFloFlyer View Post
As far as AA, you’re right. I’m not sure what MIA looks like, but I would guess you’d be pretty close to that lifestyle in 5 years given all the retirements? I’m not entirely sure, but I bet it would be attainable within your career again. In Central Florida, there’s UA so that’s a different animal. I bet those guys could match their QOL quicker there than most other places.

Edit: QOL as in not get called a whole lot on reserve and be home for most of the time while being a CA.
Congrats on getting out, looks like you made the move at a great time!
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Old 01-23-2024, 06:37 AM
  #48  
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Originally Posted by SSlow View Post
QOL is subjective. For some it's a productive 4 day trip with no redeyes, for others it's the allure of swanky international layovers that look cool on IG but in reality barely give you enough time to do much else besides sleep.

For me personally, QOL means driving to work in south florida, getting some weekends and all holidays off while doing mostly day turns, and making close to 400k with retirement added in.

Right off the bat people like me are limited to AA, and I seriously doubt that I would see anything like narrowbody MIA CA doing mostly day turns within the near future, if even at all.
There's risk of a bankruptcy at Spirit, and while I think the chances of a liquidation are low, it seems almost a certainty that the operation will be downsized. There will be displacements and downgrades coming. If you have enough seniority to weather the storm, and keep your 400k turns, then it makes sense to stick around. If not, then it's worth exploring.
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Old 01-23-2024, 11:26 AM
  #49  
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Originally Posted by checkgear View Post
Congrats on getting out, looks like you made the move at a great time!
Thanks! My timing couldn’t have been better, I just hope that it works out for my fellow pilots at NK
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