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-   -   The pilot shortage is over: (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/146554-pilot-shortage-over.html)

60av8tor 11-08-2025 02:20 PM


Originally Posted by at6d (Post 3968151)
I was hired at WN in 2015. I’m at 50%. Seniority projected for me at retirement in 2040 is 8%.


Originally Posted by JulesWinfield (Post 3968213)
I am an early 2023 hire at AA. I am 78% and will hit 50% roughly sometime around 2031, but that is using current staffing. Maybe 2030 with some growth. I will retire around 14%.

Crazy how luck and timing is everything. UA ‘21 at 55%. Second career, so won’t get the longevity to truly take advantage of the timing, but the 20-somethings that got hired at that time… Golden ticket…

rolo 11-08-2025 02:30 PM

Is there particular significance to 80%? I’m at like 78% wondering if I crossed some kind of milestone or assumed furlough safety area

CX500T 11-08-2025 02:30 PM


Originally Posted by 60av8tor (Post 3968221)
Crazy how luck and timing is everything. UA ‘21 at 55%. Second career, so won’t get the longevity to truly take advantage of the timing, but the 20-somethings that got hired at that time… Golden ticket…

DL early 18.
52% now
Retire at around 17%
39 at hire.

RippinClapBombs 11-08-2025 02:46 PM


Originally Posted by Cyio (Post 3968040)
That surprises me. I am a late '22 hire at WN and sitting at 79%. I would have thought I would be further behind, although I imagine things are going to accelerate quickly for you while slowing down for me due to less hiring.

It shouldn’t—SWA had unprecedented pilot attrition bailing for the Legacy’s after Covid. We’re not talking about pilots only on property for a few years either…

METO Guido 11-08-2025 02:59 PM

There shouldn’t ever be a shortage. Grads at Purdue, ER and equivalent are qualified to begin structured ab initial programs at Pt. 121 airlines. Aircraft systems and operating environment have evolved. They can do it. Seen it with me own peepers.

JTwift 11-08-2025 03:23 PM


Originally Posted by rolo (Post 3968224)
Is there particular significance to 80%? I’m at like 78% wondering if I crossed some kind of milestone or assumed furlough safety area

80% is the number where you should be above being furloughed. Of course, nothing is written in stone, but historically, an airline will furlough 20%. Anything less, and it just created churn with no real benefit to the company. Anything more, and it’s probably close to WW3 (metaphorically speaking).

WHACKMASTER 11-08-2025 05:16 PM


Originally Posted by CX500T (Post 3968225)
DL early 18.
52% now
Retire at around 17%
39 at hire.

Wow. That’s awesome. Aren’t you NYC ER A already?

CX500T 11-08-2025 06:49 PM


Originally Posted by WHACKMASTER (Post 3968256)
Wow. That’s awesome. Aren’t you NYC ER A already?

Picked it up 2 years ago after 2 years as a 320A.

Was out on mil leave making 2/3 of my normal pre-covid 7ERB pay for most of covid so the bank account was thankfull for coming back to any A slot.

sn00p 11-08-2025 10:38 PM


Originally Posted by Blackhawk987 (Post 3967974)
I’ve been saving a cigar for when I get to 80% on the UA seniority list and was searching around for some cocktail napkin math for when that might happen. That’s why I’m reading your comment now.

You called it, literally! The moment before the big AA machine stopped. I was at Envoy in Mar 24, and heard that AA wasn’t hiring until July. When July came…AA announced they weren’t hiring until ’25.

An AA March 2023 hire was still 89% in January 2025. The March 2024 hire was still 99% in January 2025. Sliceback should stop flying and start buying penny stocks and reading palms!

You should buy that cigar for most bizarre flex on APC of 25.

Congrats on your uber seniority /s

WHACKMASTER 11-09-2025 05:03 AM


Originally Posted by CX500T (Post 3968275)
Picked it up 2 years ago after 2 years as a 320A.

Was out on mil leave making 2/3 of my normal pre-covid 7ERB pay for most of covid so the bank account was thankfull for coming back to any A slot.

How many more years until A330 A out of JFK?


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