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Old 01-15-2025 | 11:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Jack Arnold
It's more the fact that the recent hiring skewed so young that it's going to create a massive, impossible-to-overcome/wait out seniority bubble that would legitimately stimy our (those following) career progress.

Sure; the 2000s hires endured tough times. Where are they now? Cashing out 350k+ a year flying whatever captain seat they want and will do so for many years. The career outlooks for people coming up now are simultaneously better (more initial options, more ULCC/LCC movement) and worse (top end career will be completely walled off by the 1000s of 25 year olds hired) than those who came up in the 2000s and late 90s.

You guys will shake your fists at us for pointing this out, but it's undeniably true and in about 20 years time this will show. Mark my words.
I was 34 when I started at a legacy and I was mid 50s out of 68 in class seniority. You'll be fine. Theres plenty of movement. I'm in my 2nd year and my qol at 80% in base was way better than when I was much more senior as a captain at a regional
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Old 01-15-2025 | 11:29 AM
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A few posts back it’s stated that it would take four years to be competitive for the majors. Post your experience level. If you have 1800TT, well…yeah that’s not much. In 2015 my newhire WN class average was 6000, plus the then required TPIC numbers. Feelings don’t factor in to competitive minimums.
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Old 01-15-2025 | 11:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Jack Arnold
It's more the fact that the recent hiring skewed so young that it's going to create a massive, impossible-to-overcome/wait out seniority bubble that would legitimately stimy our (those following) career progress.

Sure; the 2000s hires endured tough times. Where are they now? Cashing out 350k+ a year flying whatever captain seat they want and will do so for many years. The career outlooks for people coming up now are simultaneously better (more initial options, more ULCC/LCC movement) and worse (top end career will be completely walled off by the 1000s of 25 year olds hired) than those who came up in the 2000s and late 90s.

You guys will shake your fists at us for pointing this out, but it's undeniably true and in about 20 years time this will show. Mark my words.
I started at a legacy at 40 years old, probably will not see WB CA on my career… You will be fine at 30….

Starting to sound like a familiar poster on Reddit I’ve seen…..

You have guys here with experience trying to provide you solid device to continue to move on. There’s plenty of information that supports the position even tells you, it’s a no brained to move on…..

Stop worrying about whose ahead of you on the seniority list and focus on getting yourself on it then roll with the punches as they come…..

Geez Luiz my man….

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Old 01-15-2025 | 11:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Jack Arnold
It's more the fact that the recent hiring skewed so young that it's going to create a massive, impossible-to-overcome/wait out seniority bubble that would legitimately stimy our (those following) career progress.

Sure; the 2000s hires endured tough times. Where are they now? Cashing out 350k+ a year flying whatever captain seat they want and will do so for many years. The career outlooks for people coming up now are simultaneously better (more initial options, more ULCC/LCC movement) and worse (top end career will be completely walled off by the 1000s of 25 year olds hired) than those who came up in the 2000s and late 90s.

You guys will shake your fists at us for pointing this out, but it's undeniably true and in about 20 years time this will show. Mark my words.
Since you specifically point out the dollar value, you can make $350K in the right seat at many places with enough time and working the system. Is it the dollar value you're looking for or the position? It's a fact of life that life is unfair. Are you going to throw up your hands and give up or say "You know what? A senior WB FO or NB CA wouldn't be THAT bad." That's sarcasm, btw. Most people would kill for the amount of money a WB FO or NB CA can make. Again life isn't fair. Quit acting entitled. On the other hand if your inclination is to just give up because your reality got readjusted maybe you shouldn't be anywhere near the yoke of an airplane. If you're looking for a pat on the back, I think this thread has shown, not many empathize with your plight.
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Old 01-15-2025 | 12:10 PM
  #55  
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Originally Posted by Jack Arnold
It's more the fact that the recent hiring skewed so young that it's going to create a massive, impossible-to-overcome/wait out seniority bubble that would legitimately stimy our (those following) career progress.

Sure; the 2000s hires endured tough times. Where are they now? Cashing out 350k+ a year flying whatever captain seat they want and will do so for many years. The career outlooks for people coming up now are simultaneously better (more initial options, more ULCC/LCC movement) and worse (top end career will be completely walled off by the 1000s of 25 year olds hired) than those who came up in the 2000s and late 90s.

You guys will shake your fists at us for pointing this out, but it's undeniably true and in about 20 years time this will show. Mark my words.
$350k/year can easily be done as a seniorish (5+ years) NB FO. If you want to stay have at it, but your calculator is broken and the QOL you'd be giving up is astronomical. Again, retirement!!!
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Old 01-15-2025 | 12:15 PM
  #56  
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I guess 33 is the new 50 now. Even if you are at the bottom half of the hiring wave you can’t do anything about it. Even the senior legacy pilots that are making tons of money now, struggled for a long time before that. Most in this industry have had it tough, not just you. All except for the 25 year olds that were hired the last 5 years, they are crazy lucky. The rest of us are just trying to catch up. If you think you can plan or control things in this industry, you’re just going to be badly disappointed. Just enjoy your current position and try to strive for higher pay and less work, that’s all you can do.
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Old 01-15-2025 | 01:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Jack Arnold
33 year old regional FO.. Has that ship sailed? With all the tyoung guys hired recently, I question if it will be worth it when I'm 35, 37, 38 etc.

How do you judge when it's not worth going? There are so many 20-somethings on these legacy lists I can't imagine having a good time there. help me with my perspective?

thanks

Maybe some general talk about the future of these jobs.. How screwed are these seniority lists and how stagnant will it get 2030 and beyond?

Im sorry, are you saying you should consider staying at a regional at any age? Wtf are you thinking?! Seriously. Unless you want a different career let just go ahead and say that a seniority number at a regional has zero value. There is no trade to make. You have nothing but upside.
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Old 01-15-2025 | 01:46 PM
  #58  
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Originally Posted by Jack Arnold
It's more the fact that the recent hiring skewed so young that it's going to create a massive, impossible-to-overcome/wait out seniority bubble that would legitimately stimy our (those following) career progress.
Hiring didn't skew very young, at least at DAL. Over the past 10 years, for any given year, the median hiring age has never dipped below 34. It has only wavered -1/+2 around 35.

Yea, more young pilots were hired, because more total pilots were hired. The majority that were hired are older than you (including myself.)

Last edited by Verdell; 01-15-2025 at 02:04 PM.
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Old 01-15-2025 | 03:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Jack Arnold
33 year old regional FO.. Has that ship sailed? With all the tyoung guys hired recently, I question if it will be worth it when I'm 35, 37, 38 etc.

How do you judge when it's not worth going? There are so many 20-somethings on these legacy lists I can't imagine having a good time there. help me with my perspective?

thanks

Maybe some general talk about the future of these jobs.. How screwed are these seniority lists and how stagnant will it get 2030 and beyond?
65 is to late. Thread closed.
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Old 01-15-2025 | 04:08 PM
  #60  
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I'll cut jack some slack. If he's a 33 yr old RJ FO, I'm guessing it's his first airline job and he's new to the industry. Apology if I'm wrong. If he thinks a 3 year upgrade is long, it's not really his fault- it's the world he's been living in. We can speak from experience that he doesn't have.

Jack- to summarise what's been said here- the good times (fast movement, good regional pay) we're experiencing now are an anomaly. I wouldn't count on it continuing until your're 65. In your 30's it's a no-brainer. The pay, work rules, opprotunities and job security (see what happened to Air Wisconsn this week?) will be better. Make the move- you won't regret it. I haven't flown with anyone who's regretted leaving a regional.
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