Black Swan Event
03-03-2026 | 06:52 AM
#11
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 4,064
Likes: 246
9/10 modern day recessions have been caused by a run up in energy prices. Now to be fair, gas would have to approach $8-$9/gal to be similar to 2007 pricing. But even a move to $4-$5 is psychological and means many will pull spending.
03-03-2026 | 07:01 AM
#12
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 44,618
Likes: 557
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
All the more reason for US to develop its own fossil fuel resources. And to produce modern mini nuclear reactors. I don’t care if you believe in e-vehicles or not, you are going to need DISTRIBUTED electricity generated to charge them because the grid simply won’t support massive transfers fron one region to another and - for the immediate future - that’s going to have to be gas or oil fueled production. Eventually fusion power is the way to go - and generated locally, because the inverse square law really bites at a range of 93 million miles.sts. For those who have never been there, it’s a massive 19.3 MILLION acre area that gets visited by less than 2000 people a year.
Worth noting that the grid (past, present, or future) will never support significant transfer of power over great distances... that's EE 101, too much resistance loss. A 1 Gigawatt plant in PHX could power a 100W light bulb in Maine. Unless you use superconductors, but then you'd need cryogenic plants to cool and distribute liquid helium every 1/2 mile
Yes, fusion eventually, but the timeline to commercially viable fusion is of course still uncertain.
03-03-2026 | 07:07 AM
#13
Banned
Joined: Apr 2024
Posts: 594
Likes: 121
Dooooooooooom!
Lol, no
we blow up middle eastern countries all the time, in my life time it’s more of a rare thing if we arnt blowing up some third world middle eastern place, just part of the war industry.
It’s just reruns
Lol, no
we blow up middle eastern countries all the time, in my life time it’s more of a rare thing if we arnt blowing up some third world middle eastern place, just part of the war industry.
It’s just reruns
03-03-2026 | 07:42 AM
#14
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 44,618
Likes: 557
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
It's not just that - the cost of gas which is up over $0.20 from last month and climbing rapidly acts as a tax on the US working class.
9/10 modern day recessions have been caused by a run up in energy prices. Now to be fair, gas would have to approach $8-$9/gal to be similar to 2007 pricing. But even a move to $4-$5 is psychological and means many will pull spending.
9/10 modern day recessions have been caused by a run up in energy prices. Now to be fair, gas would have to approach $8-$9/gal to be similar to 2007 pricing. But even a move to $4-$5 is psychological and means many will pull spending.
If the *average" consumer burns less gas, then the system can tolerate more price run-up before consequences manifest.
The folks with jacked up full size king cabs with Hemis are not in that equation... they already made the choice that their car is a hobby/toy, not strictly practical transport.
For clarity, I'm not saying that I *like* oppressive federal mandates, in fact I despise the now-ubiquitous garbage eco-boost engines, but it all does factor into this situation.
03-03-2026 | 07:46 AM
#15
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 267
Likes: 8
Wouldn’t the very first indications that contagion has spread to the airlines be a cessation of hiring?
The next week or two should be telling on that front.
The next week or two should be telling on that front.
03-03-2026 | 08:16 AM
#17
On Reserve
Joined: Jan 2025
Posts: 136
Likes: 44
The Trump Admin is floating the idea of underwriting insurance for oil tankers in the region, as has been done before. That has lead to a steep drop in oil prices within minutes.
03-03-2026 | 08:21 AM
#19
— No Relief On Scope —
Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 4,484
Likes: 265
From: B737 Left Seat
Iran has a ton of oil. Or so I’ve heard.
This isn’t 9/11 or 2008. The markets will be a little up and down the next few weeks but it won’t be a black swan event.
And also, that’s just my opinion which means maybe it will be a black swan event.
This isn’t 9/11 or 2008. The markets will be a little up and down the next few weeks but it won’t be a black swan event.
And also, that’s just my opinion which means maybe it will be a black swan event.
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