Black Swan Event
03-03-2026 | 08:45 AM
#22
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 20,839
Likes: 160
Probably not. We won't be doing any kind of significant ground combat, and Iran certainly isn't in a position to invade it's neighbors a la Iraq in 1990.
This is more like Venezuela 2026 than Gulf I.
Probably the worst impact would be a temporary increase in oil prices. The good news is that Iran doesn't contribute much to the global supply (sanctions) and they don't have the capacity to degrade other countries' production infrastructure. What strike capacity they do have is rapidly vanishing.
AS isn't "barely hanging on", they just didn't achieve the industry profitability pole position this year (came in third).
I'm not aware that it's closed. I wouldn't doubt that traffic is slowed and some insurers are putting restrictions on their ships.
This is more like Venezuela 2026 than Gulf I.
Probably the worst impact would be a temporary increase in oil prices. The good news is that Iran doesn't contribute much to the global supply (sanctions) and they don't have the capacity to degrade other countries' production infrastructure. What strike capacity they do have is rapidly vanishing.
AS isn't "barely hanging on", they just didn't achieve the industry profitability pole position this year (came in third).
I'm not aware that it's closed. I wouldn't doubt that traffic is slowed and some insurers are putting restrictions on their ships.
Trump is however in the end a business man. When his backers start putting pressure on him he will find a way to close this out. I don’t think it goes beyond 30 days. It should be noted that the one thing that could truly cripple Iran long term is to take out there oil port and associated facilities. Kharg island has been essentially untouched.
03-03-2026 | 09:20 AM
#23
Line Holder
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 851
Likes: 172
From: Captain
So looking at the financial news today and the dow dropping 1200 points in 30 mins and oil surging to decades highs. I wonder if this is the next "event"?
Many airlines are barely hanging on (AA, JetBlue, Spirit and the Alaska group) and this could be the thing that could send us all over the edge.
The strait of Hormuz is closed as of this post.
Many airlines are barely hanging on (AA, JetBlue, Spirit and the Alaska group) and this could be the thing that could send us all over the edge.
The strait of Hormuz is closed as of this post.
Id say fiscally
united delta S tier
A tier Southwest Alaska
b
c American
d JetBlue frontier (other small LCCs breeze and such
f spirit
03-03-2026 | 09:21 AM
#24
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Joined: Sep 2025
Posts: 313
Likes: 198
People keep comparing it to Venezuela where we went in to get some clown nobody really liked. Whats going on in Iran right now is different as the military there has basically taken over and aren't showing signs of defecting.
Also I don't know why people are hanging on my comment about Alaska group. Hawaiian wasn't in the best shape and they are now part of the Alaska group. If oil goes high and cost of living soar those 330s to HNL are going to be empty.
03-03-2026 | 09:23 AM
#25
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 4,064
Likes: 246
I would postulate that the math might be a bit different in 2026... many vehicles are a lot more fuel efficient than comparable ones in the past. Yes you need to be wealthy-ish to own a Tesla but lower-end hybrids, smaller engines, and other efficiency "features" are now the norm in middle/lower economic demographics.
If the *average" consumer burns less gas, then the system can tolerate more price run-up before consequences manifest.
The folks with jacked up full size king cabs with Hemis are not in that equation... they already made the choice that their car is a hobby/toy, not strictly practical transport.
For clarity, I'm not saying that I *like* oppressive federal mandates, in fact I despise the now-ubiquitous garbage eco-boost engines, but it all does factor into this situation.
If the *average" consumer burns less gas, then the system can tolerate more price run-up before consequences manifest.
The folks with jacked up full size king cabs with Hemis are not in that equation... they already made the choice that their car is a hobby/toy, not strictly practical transport.
For clarity, I'm not saying that I *like* oppressive federal mandates, in fact I despise the now-ubiquitous garbage eco-boost engines, but it all does factor into this situation.
03-03-2026 | 09:28 AM
#26
On Reserve
Joined: Jan 2025
Posts: 136
Likes: 44
dang how is AS Barely hanging on made money every year since 22? 3rd last in profit and #1 in profit in 24. I’d say frontier is barely hanging on over Alaska
Id say fiscally
united delta S tier
A tier Southwest Alaska
b
c American
d JetBlue frontier (other small LCCs breeze and such
f spirit
Id say fiscally
united delta S tier
A tier Southwest Alaska
b
c American
d JetBlue frontier (other small LCCs breeze and such
f spirit
03-03-2026 | 10:10 AM
#27
Line Holder
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 851
Likes: 172
From: Captain
we got our max profit modifier in 24 cause the company said we were 1 in operating margin
and in 2025 Alaska was 3rd in operating margin
margin is what matters not $ amount no way a company with 240 planes can produce and much $ profit as a AA or WN % not $ amount
03-03-2026 | 10:12 AM
#28
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2024
Posts: 946
Likes: 218
So looking at the financial news today and the dow dropping 1200 points in 30 mins and oil surging to decades highs. I wonder if this is the next "event"?
Many airlines are barely hanging on (AA, JetBlue, Spirit and the Alaska group) and this could be the thing that could send us all over the edge.
The strait of Hormuz is closed as of this post.
Many airlines are barely hanging on (AA, JetBlue, Spirit and the Alaska group) and this could be the thing that could send us all over the edge.
The strait of Hormuz is closed as of this post.
03-03-2026 | 10:44 AM
#30
Banned
Joined: Mar 2021
Posts: 2,847
Likes: 212
Probably not. We won't be doing any kind of significant ground combat, and Iran certainly isn't in a position to invade it's neighbors a la Iraq in 1990.
This is more like Venezuela 2026 than Gulf I.
Probably the worst impact would be a temporary increase in oil prices. The good news is that Iran doesn't contribute much to the global supply (sanctions) and they don't have the capacity to degrade other countries' production infrastructure. What strike capacity they do have is rapidly vanishing.
AS isn't "barely hanging on", they just didn't achieve the industry profitability pole position this year (came in third).
I'm not aware that it's closed. I wouldn't doubt that traffic is slowed and some insurers are putting restrictions on their ships.
This is more like Venezuela 2026 than Gulf I.
Probably the worst impact would be a temporary increase in oil prices. The good news is that Iran doesn't contribute much to the global supply (sanctions) and they don't have the capacity to degrade other countries' production infrastructure. What strike capacity they do have is rapidly vanishing.
AS isn't "barely hanging on", they just didn't achieve the industry profitability pole position this year (came in third).
I'm not aware that it's closed. I wouldn't doubt that traffic is slowed and some insurers are putting restrictions on their ships.
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