So looking at the financial news today and the dow dropping 1200 points in 30 mins and oil surging to decades highs. I wonder if this is the next "event"?

Many airlines are barely hanging on (AA, JetBlue, Spirit and the Alaska group) and this could be the thing that could send us all over the edge.

The strait of Hormuz is closed as of this post.

 

Maybe?..........Maybe not?


Like everything we won't really know until the "event" has ended.

The markets are sure reacting like it is. Does that make them right? Not Necessarily.......but even if market reaction is inappropriate.....it will become a self fulfilling prophecy.

 

Unfortunately, I think the reality that this could be the next black swan event is here, unless this war ends relatively soon. Hopefully everyone has a plan to ride through the turbulence

 

All the more reason for US to develop its own fossil fuel resources. And to produce modern mini nuclear reactors. I don’t care if you believe in e-vehicles or not, you are going to need DISTRIBUTED electricity generated to charge them because the grid simply won’t support massive transfers fron one region to another and - for the immediate future - that’s going to have to be gas or oil fueled production. Eventually fusion power is the way to go - and generated locally, because the inverse square law really bites at a range of 93 million miles.

And it ain’t like we don’t have vast resources we can develop. I remember some years ago there was a big brouhaha about a proposal to develop oil resources in a small proportion of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge with all manner of whining by the rabid environmentalists. For those who have never been there, it’s a massive 19.3 MILLION acre area that gets visited by less than 2000 people a year.

 

“Oil surging to decades highs”? Seriously?

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Even unadjusted for inflation$76.24 a barrel is scarcely “decades highs”.

 

Yes & no. It’s no swan. Iranian terror has been in the world’s face since Carter. Make a fast deal replacement imam, abide by the rules or prepare to smooch a snake eyed donkey?

 

Probably not. We won't be doing any kind of significant ground combat, and Iran certainly isn't in a position to invade it's neighbors a la Iraq in 1990.

This is more like Venezuela 2026 than Gulf I.

Probably the worst impact would be a temporary increase in oil prices. The good news is that Iran doesn't contribute much to the global supply (sanctions) and they don't have the capacity to degrade other countries' production infrastructure. What strike capacity they do have is rapidly vanishing.

AS isn't "barely hanging on", they just didn't achieve the industry profitability pole position this year (came in third).

I'm not aware that it's closed. I wouldn't doubt that traffic is slowed and some insurers are putting restrictions on their ships.

 

This event is another reason why this industry can suck. The cost of living has gone up the last several years. The younger generation pilots probably have huge mortgages and young expensive families. In the 35 years in the industry I have never been comfortable financially because I know one of these uncontrollable events is just around the corner. I am a couple years from retirement and have almost no bills and I am still concerned about my future.

Hopefully things settle sooner rather than later. Hold on tight.

 

Maybe instead of using electricity to make memes and fake pictures we could use it to power our family's vehicles instead. Seems reasonable. And then we'd never have to worry about the price of oil ever again, because the US has plenty for the remaining uses (diesel, jetA, chemicals etc).

That fossil fuel lobby is definitely never going to let go though.

 

What price does it need to get to before your airline stops making money?