Still talking about boots on the ground? When does this invasion start? Odd that the oil and stock market and airline industry isn’t planning or reacting in a way that indicates a long term conflict. Hopefully you heeded my advice and invested 3 weeks ago…

What’s the over/under airlines bring down their new bag fees? In the end airlines will keep the fees, keep the higher prices and vastly increase their earnings after fuel costs normalize. Hell, bookings aren’t even having much of a reaction. Demand still up. Never let a good crisis go to waste.

still waiting for tariff inflation and resulting recession to hit. After that we can discuss the Iran inflation and economic recession.

Like magic, gas at my neighborhood station is down $0.20 from a few weeks ago. Much like the Covid “Tracker of Death” on CNN, the “ Gas prices will be the end” tracker has disappeared.

Heres a fun fact: if you exclude CA from the West Coast gas price average, the average drops $0.40.

I miss the days when y’all were predicting $150-200 oil, furloughs, a/c delivery cancellations, and a massive recession.

Cue Hubcap talking about Ukraine and some post from a year ago.

 

Spooky combat SM these days, 2nd page story. In other news..

 

Actual current oil prices are above 150 and in the far east as much as 250 a barrel. The spread between paper prices and actual oil have never been greater. Paper prices are what get reported. Europe has 5 weeks of jet fuel left.

 

8 engines, a lot of smoke, a lot of wheels, a lot of flaps, a lot of wing and about 70k lbs of CBU-87/M117 each. The sound of persuasion no one shrugs off.

 

just to make sure this doesn’t get lost in the noise of the irrational

 

Huh? Iran is losing $450 MILLION per DAY… And their storage tanks are about to fill, requiring them to shut down production.

That doesn’t even begin to tally the billions in infrastructure and military losses from the kinetic campaign.

I’m not arguing for, or against. But the bolded is clearly demonstrably untrue.

 

This is the part that cracks me up the most. These idiots are quoting the daily rise/fall of the paper price as if it means anything.

 

It does.

Paper means your refinery will loose money because it pays more for oil and price of gas won’t go up to match.

Majors own their production, and already have lower cost per barrel.

They don’t care Delta’s boutique refinery had to pay more for light sweet crude, or shutdown.

If the majors run the price of gasoline up to where Delta’s refinery can make money overpaying for Middle East oil, then it would curve demand down for themselves.

They won’t give up profitable market share because independent refiners can’t find oil to buy.

Their refineries will run wide open max production all year. Throttling a refinery back cost more then just lowering gas prices, because they own their own oil and it has to go somewhere.

Using paper prices means the airline with the highest CASM sets pricing for the whole industry and everyone profits because loads can’t or won’t go down.

 

fair enough, i meant with regard to military hardware.

the overall point remains the same. Can we squeeze iran enough without boots on the ground to establish an iads? People here say they will commit jihad with a nuke, why would they not keep the straight closed (as theyve proven they can despite our conventional military superiority) and suffer the lost revenue using cheap drones that we have objectively not been able to counter. You cant have it both ways here.

one plus from all this that a previous poster mentioned is that this may instigate a diversification of traffic that went through there.

 

Ahh, ok, I see what you are saying about that cost in your earlier post. Fair enough.

The flip side of the quoted argument is, however, that if they are crazy enough to do all that, shutdown the Straight with drones and mines, cutting their own throats while losing $450M/day in illicit oil revenue, a crashing Rial/exonomy, and no oil storage remaining, forcing them to shutdown production (a major blow not easy to reverse as I understand), what makes you think they only want a nuke for deterrence?

Can people genuinely say there is not a real risk they will use it? Iran is run by radical ideologues. They aren’t in the same category of other rational actors. And in geopolitical terms, even NK is a rational actor.

Part of this is also about countering China over the medium/long term, as an ancillary benefit if not part of the calculus.