Economic Impacts of Iran War

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04-21-2026 | 05:24 PM

#1201

jerryleber

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From: 787 FO

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThumbsUp

Even you, comrade, can see that doing 1,2,3 are just tasks to lead to the same effect.

What effect would that be? IRGC still in charge, SOH still closed, enriched uranium still unsecured, hundreds of $ billions spent, lives lost, allies alienated, price of oil high?

04-21-2026 | 05:28 PM

#1202

ShyGuy

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Quote:

Originally Posted by METO Guido

These boys do extortion and call it business. No nukes. Yesterday, today or tomorrow.

And again, this just wasn’t a thing for you prior to Feb 28.

04-21-2026 | 05:37 PM

#1203

ThumbsUp

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jerryleber

What effect would that be? IRGC still in charge, SOH still closed, enriched uranium still unsecured, hundreds of $ billions spent, lives lost, allies alienated, price of oil high?

The effect would be an Iran without Nuclear weapons nor the capability and will to produce them. It’s not a small undertaking to dismantle a terrorist group that is so entangled in Iranian society.

04-21-2026 | 05:41 PM

#1204

jerryleber

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From: 787 FO

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThumbsUp

The effect would be an Iran without Nuclear weapons nor the capability and will to produce them.

Then we are further from the effect than before the war started with a list of other serious negative unintended though easily predictable consequences.

04-21-2026 | 05:49 PM

#1205

ThumbsUp

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jerryleber

Then we are further from the effect than before the war started with a list of other serious negative unintended though easily predictable consequences.

I wouldn’t say so. They are certainly farther away from that capability; however, the only way (at least in my lifespan) to remove the will would be complete annihilation of the IRGC/theocracy.

04-21-2026 | 05:53 PM

#1206

ShyGuy

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https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ys-2026-04-21/

It’ll be here. It’s being staged off by market manipulation, shorting futures literally hours before Trump announces something major that drives the market a certain way. Complete manipulation and someone cashing it big time $$$$$.

But once all that’s settled down, paper money value of oil will catch up the physical oil price. America has been pretty insulated. I don’t think the average family that can’t cover a $400 emergency is ready for what’s coming.

04-21-2026 | 05:58 PM

#1207

jerryleber

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From: 787 FO

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThumbsUp

They are certainly farther away from that capability

They didn't forget how to enrich uranium, but now they are far more motivated to get a nuke as a result of this war. And China & I'd bet Russia are sending them munitions.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThumbsUp

however, the only way (at least in my lifespan) to remove the will would be complete annihilation of the IRGC/theocracy.

Incredibly, it appears Netanyahu convinced Trump regime change would be relatively easy via decapitation. This is what happens with Vance, Rubio & Hegseth are the extent of your trusted advisers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/u...-iran-war.html

04-21-2026 | 06:45 PM

#1208

ThumbsUp

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jerryleber

They didn't forget how to enrich uranium, but now they are far more motivated to get a nuke as a result of this war. And China & I'd bet Russia are sending them munitions.Incredibly, it appears Netanyahu convinced Trump regime change would be relatively easy via decapitation. This is what happens with Vance, Rubio & Hegseth are the extent of your trusted advisers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/u...-iran-war.html

They didn’t forget. But memory doesn’t infer a capability.

04-21-2026 | 06:52 PM

#1209

METO Guido

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ShyGuy

And again, this just wasn’t a thing for you prior to Feb 28.

There is no was. Only do

04-22-2026 | 03:12 AM

#1210

sailingfun

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ThumbsUp

The effect would be an Iran without Nuclear weapons nor the capability and will to produce them. It’s not a small undertaking to dismantle a terrorist group that is so entangled in Iranian society.

They could of course purchase them from North Korea, Pakistan or even Russia. Those nations never before would have considered a sale. Things are different now. They might even be viewed as the good guys in providing nucs to Iran to protect it from the US who currently is viewed worldwide about the same as Germany in 1940. We have radically destabilized the Middle East. We have also left ourselves dangerously exposed to additional conflicts as we have expended far more weapons than the Pentagon planned or even considered using. JASSM’s available worldwide are down to 425 from 2300 prewar. We have used between 850 and 950 cruise missiles. We procure less than 100 per year.