Airline Pilot Central Forums - Economic Impacts of Iran War

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Quote:

Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 4027519)

No we won't. That's why the DoD is modifying unguided 70mm rockets with extremely cheap guidance systems.

They have already developed them. Work great.

.

The US is not a hegemon.

The unipolar/ superpower moment is over.

(sorry we ****ed it away for counties starting with “I”)

Enemies get a vote too.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 4027519)

No we won't. That's why the DoD is modifying unguided 70mm rockets with extremely cheap guidance systems. If you're not military, 70mm rockets are the small cheap ones they ripple launch from helo pods in 'Nam movies. Big bottle rockets basically.

Drones are so slow and non-reactive that it doesn't take $ophisticated systems like AIM-9/120, PAC-3, SM-2, etc to splash them.

Guess that's another fringe benefit, we got to try out out gear against some of the new asymmetric stuff before a main event in the Pacific. We can practice shooting down model airplanes with bottle rockets.

Except you know as well as I do that those systems aren’t sexy & that the service chiefs feel a constant need to justify their exorbitant budgets. We’ll be burning F-35 flight hours to turn rubble into smaller rubble, having subs launch tomahawks into empty spots in the desert where someone spotted scud launchers 3 weeks prior, C-17s flying loads of empty pallets from Dafra to Ali al Salem, only to pick up another load of empty pallets headed to the ‘Died, and sending an army of chiefs into theater to make sure people’s socks are regulation before they’re allowed to enter a chow hall in no time at all if we aren’t already. Don’t kid yourself thinking that Haliburton, Northrop Grumman, and Anduril aren’t already gearing up for the windfall and absolutely making perpetual O-faces at the prospect of another forever war in the sandbox. We’re going to spend sickening sums on this thing for years to come. I literally never want to hear another word about fiscal responsibility from anyone, of any stripe, in any position of power.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clearedtocross (Post 4027524)

$1 Trillion every 5 months to be exact.

Is that number accurate, where’s its source?

Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU):Enrichment above 20% is classified as highly enriched, and 60% is considered to be in a "gray area" of the road to a nuclear weapon.
Technical Threshold: Experts note that once uranium is enriched to 20% or higher, over 90% of the total effort required for weapons-grade (90%) material has already been completed.
Stockpiles: Reports as of early 2026 indicate that Iran holds significant stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium.
Trying to find the data that no Country has ever enriched beyond 30% and NOT produced a nuclear weapon… unless we trust Iran enough to think they wouldn’t try?
oil still not at $150

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lowslung (Post 4027544)

You're just now realizing this? The very nature of military procurement and warfare attracts frauds and opportunists like flies, been that way since Rome for sure and most likely since static civilization.

Doesn't mean that the system can't or doesn't work, at least in the US where we have a lot more public visibility and discussion of such things. It requires eternal vigilance just to minimize the FW&A, probably can't eliminate it entirely.

Quote:

Originally Posted by vaxedtothemax (Post 4027549)

Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU):Enrichment above 20% is classified as highly enriched, and 60% is considered to be in a "gray area" of the road to a nuclear weapon.
Technical Threshold: Experts note that once uranium is enriched to 20% or higher, over 90% of the total effort required for weapons-grade (90%) material has already been completed.
Stockpiles: Reports as of early 2026 indicate that Iran holds significant stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium.
Trying to find the data that no Country has ever enriched beyond 30% and NOT produced a nuclear weapon… unless we trust Iran enough to think they wouldn’t try?
oil still not at $150

Less than 90% you can theoretically build a bomb, but it's a lot harder, requires a lot more precision, and it will be very large (too large for missiles and likely heavy bombers, not that IR has any of the later). So basically delivery by ship or maybe truck (if there's a sea or overland route to the target).

For long-range missiles, probably need 95% or better.

Quote:

Originally Posted by METO Guido (Post 4027547)

Is that number accurate, where’s its source?

I thought he had posted it, or at least in a follow-up: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/po...201328218.html

Quote:

The United States national debt crossed $39 trillion for the first time Tuesday, arriving at the grim milestone less than five months after it first hit $38 trillion in late October—a pace of accumulation that budget watchdogs and academic economists are now calling, with unusual unanimity, “unsustainable.”

Quote:

Originally Posted by METO Guido (Post 4027547)

Is that number accurate, where’s its source?

That's the total debt, not just the "excursion" which according to different estimates has cost $25--$49 billion so far. Assuming however that the run rate remains the same, that's about $300--$500 billion/ year *just* for the war.

“The oil market has passed the breaking point. The onslaught of oil inventory draws coming will shock the market awake. I suspect that only when financial players see the physical shortages playing out will they wake up to the reality that this supply outage is real. Until then, most people will not be able to accept the reality.

It is what it is.”

https://open.substack.com/pub/hfir/p...utm_medium=ios