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Originally Posted by word302
(Post 4027577)
Oil is over $150 unless you actually believe it’s selling for the futures price today.
Hell, it’s at $250 a barrel … man that’s easy.. I like your rationale, easy to win debates that way. |
Originally Posted by vaxedtothemax
(Post 4027597)
Better alert the media they are reporting the wrong prices, they could be alarming people way better…..what you are saying is we only use the standard price metric when you think it’s heading for the moon, but when that narrative doesn’t pan out in your favor we use some phantom metric to judge prices and then can make up any price we decide it’s trading at… got it
Hell, it’s at $250 a barrel … man that’s easy.. I like your rationale, easy to win debates that way. https://www.energyaspects.com/resour...nnect?hl=en-US |
Originally Posted by word302
(Post 4027577)
Oil is over $150 unless you actually believe it’s selling for the futures price today.
The index’s set prices to match demand. Demand has already gone down, no possible way demand is same at $95 at it was at $60 when this started. Everyone keeps quoting demand at $60 then calculating how much demand is being chocked off in the straight. When it went to $90+ demand fell off. Asia and Europe will have supply chain issues and shocking figures will come out to scare everyone. We all survived the great toilet paper shortage, I am sure there is an invoice somewhere of a shocking price on toilet paper for aircraft. There is no point in quoting peak pricing in Asia without quoting what to average it into like Cheveron’s base cost per barrel in Venezuela. The worlds oil is in the ground and on one knows what it’s worth until it gets to market. A few supply chain disruptions don’t elevate the value of all oil in the ground dollar for dollar. |
Originally Posted by OpieTaylor
(Post 4027614)
You’re probably just looking at refineries with supply chain problems paying that much.
The index’s set prices to match demand. Demand has already gone down, no possible way demand is same at $95 at it was at $60 when this started. Everyone keeps quoting demand at $60 then calculating how much demand is being chocked off in the straight. When it went to $90+ demand fell off. Asia and Europe will have supply chain issues and shocking figures will come out to scare everyone. We all survived the great toilet paper shortage, I am sure there is an invoice somewhere of a shocking price on toilet paper for aircraft. If the index’s go to $150 the world won’t need the straight because demand would go down. |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 4027624)
It’s not just demand destruction that attenuates price increases, it’s also that supply has elasticity as well. Older fields that are economically marginal and potential new drilling that are uneconomical to develop at $60 a barrel can be fracked and production expanded at $90 a barrel. The higher the price, the faster the production can be increased.
The other poster article saying shipping capacity will be the thorn, seems less likely considering how much extra payload UPS, FedEX, and Atlas created to sell during high demand periods. He was basically saying the world shipping fleet was already operating at Vmo, so any slow down cannot be “made up”. California container ship log jam all over again except with oil tankers, not sure he proved his position on fleet capacity or took into fact that Saudi was underutilizing their pipe line to the west coast before this started. |
Originally Posted by OpieTaylor
(Post 4027632)
He was basically saying the world shipping fleet was already operating at Vmo, so any slow down cannot be “made up”.
Probably the only surge capacity available might be pulling ships out of overhaul early. Not even sure how practical that would be. |
Originally Posted by Lowslung
(Post 4027202)
Fangs, while I don’t agree with all of your positions, you’re a generally reasonable and intelligent person. Explain this one to me. I understand that China gets far more oil from gulf states than just about anyone else. What I don’t understand is how turning off X amount of global supply hurts them more than us. The fact that it’s a global market has been discussed ad nauseam. Price and supply issues hit us both. Xi has the dictator’s luxury of being able to ignore public opinion (at least for a while), while the American public will very quickly tire of energy shortages, even if there were a strategic benefit to the country. I just don’t see how this play works out in our favor.
Blockade 101: American sea power on display as Trump corners Iran and warns off China China imports about 11M barrels of oil per day, with 90% moving by sea routes the US Navy now controls By Rebecca Grant Published April 15, 2026 5:00am EDT | Updated April 15, 2026 5:40am EDT At this moment in time, President Donald Trump has control of the Strait of Hormuz. His short-term goal, of course, is to pressure Iran’s leaders to give up their nuclear ambitions. Yet Trump’s blockade is also a major geopolitical hammer on China. For now, oil and petrochemical shipments will flow out of that waterway only under the rules of the U.S. Navy. All China can do is watch. "If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea," Trump wrote. "It is quick and brutal." Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander, United States Central Command, has come up with a brilliant plan to pin down Iran while leaving Gulf states free to resume shipping. "The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman," U.S. Central Command said. Here’s how it works. Are you a legit VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) supertanker coming out of port in the UAE or Saudi Arabia, for example? U.S. Central Command says you are good to go. Remember to contact and monitor naval forces on VHF Channel 16 for bridge-to-bridge communications. On the other hand, if you are a ship that picked up a cargo in Iran, you are in big trouble. Aircraft and ships of U.S. Central Command have vessels under constant surveillance. Yes, it’s the same clear view seen with the drug boat strikes in the Caribbean. Military maritime moving target indicator systems even have the ability to "rewind" and track ships from where they left port. Don’t forget ships violating the rules can be intercepted in deep water, too. There’s a lot of U.S. Navy in the North Arabian Gulf. … At this point, there is little Iran can do to overturn Trump’s blockade. Airstrikes have cratered underground anti-ship cruise missile bunkers. The IRGC fast boats will be on a suicide mission if they attempt hit-and-run attacks. Drone defenses are in place. U.S. aircraft are active during the ceasefire and can respond fast if Iran strikes out. Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports is a testament to American air and maritime dominance. It’s also a vivid reminder to Xi Jinping of China’s vulnerability. China imports about 11 million barrels of oil per day, and 90% of it moves by sea. Trump’s desired end-state is freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but meanwhile, Trump is showing China that the U.S. Navy can control its single most important oil route at will. That’s a real blow against the China-Russia cabal. I don’t claim expert status, but I recognize the impacts this has on relations with China. There may be a visit next month, and it will be very telling regardless of whether the trip happens or not. |
Originally Posted by FangsF15
(Post 4027696)
Thumbs up and Rick replied with some of what I would argue. Also, I would add this opinion piece, from Dr Rebecca Grant, and well-respected geopolitical/military commentator:
It all comes to a head for China, they are far more affected across their economy than we are (which is not to say we are immune), not just oil. Food too. And it indicates to China we have the will and capability to counter them with Sea and Airpower. I don’t claim expert status, but I recognize the impacts this has on relations with China. There may be a visit next month, and it will be very telling regardless of whether the trip happens or not. How many? |
Originally Posted by vaksedtothemax
(Post 4027597)
Better alert the media they are reporting the wrong prices, they could be alarming people way better…..what you are saying is we only use the standard price metric when you think it’s heading for the moon, but when that narrative doesn’t pan out in your favor we use some phantom metric to judge prices and then can make up any price we decide it’s trading at… got it
Hell, it’s at $250 a barrel … man that’s easy.. I like your rationale, easy to win debates that way. |
Originally Posted by FangsF15
(Post 4027696)
Thumbs up and Rick replied with some of what I would argue. Also, I would add this opinion piece, from Dr Rebecca Grant, and well-respected geopolitical/military commentator:
It all comes to a head for China, they are far more affected across their economy than we are (which is not to say we are immune), not just oil. Food too. And it indicates to China we have the will and capability to counter them with Sea and Airpower. I don’t claim expert status, but I recognize the impacts this has on relations with China. There may be a visit next month, and it will be very telling regardless of whether the trip happens or not. Would we attack and sink Chinese warships engaged in protecting commercial shipping? Would the Chinese do the same to a US Navy warship? Am I missing something regarding this idea? ( many reasons why unlikely. But China doesn't live in an isolated vacuum) |
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