Economic Impacts of Iran War
04-24-2026 | 07:43 PM
#1281
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Joined: Mar 2018
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You're just now realizing this? The very nature of military procurement and warfare attracts frauds and opportunists like flies, been that way since Rome for sure and most likely since static civilization.
Doesn't mean that the system can't or doesn't work, at least in the US where we have a lot more public visibility and discussion of such things. It requires eternal vigilance just to minimize the FW&A, probably can't eliminate it entirely.
Doesn't mean that the system can't or doesn't work, at least in the US where we have a lot more public visibility and discussion of such things. It requires eternal vigilance just to minimize the FW&A, probably can't eliminate it entirely.
04-24-2026 | 07:46 PM
#1282
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Joined: Apr 2011
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Can’t go a year. No chance
04-24-2026 | 07:53 PM
#1283
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
04-24-2026 | 07:55 PM
#1284
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Joined: Aug 2015
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From: Guppy Gear Slinger
“The oil market has passed the breaking point. The onslaught of oil inventory draws coming will shock the market awake. I suspect that only when financial players see the physical shortages playing out will they wake up to the reality that this supply outage is real. Until then, most people will not be able to accept the reality.
It is what it is.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/hfir/p...utm_medium=ios
It is what it is.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/hfir/p...utm_medium=ios
But until US airliners get parked en masse, and nonessential travel is banned , and half of us are out on furlough, the usual cheerleaders will just accuse us of hysteria. I hope they're right. But that article is factual, insightful, and impossible to ignore.
04-24-2026 | 10:02 PM
#1285
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04-24-2026 | 10:22 PM
#1286
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From: Guppy Gear Slinger
04-25-2026 | 12:13 AM
#1287
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Joined: Mar 2011
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From: 737 FO
- Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU):Enrichment above 20% is classified as highly enriched, and 60% is considered to be in a "gray area" of the road to a nuclear weapon.
- Technical Threshold: Experts note that once uranium is enriched to 20% or higher, over 90% of the total effort required for weapons-grade (90%) material has already been completed.
- Stockpiles: Reports as of early 2026 indicate that Iran holds significant stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium.
Trying to find the data that no Country has ever enriched beyond 30% and NOT produced a nuclear weapon… unless we trust Iran enough to think they wouldn’t try?- oil still not at $150
04-25-2026 | 04:08 AM
#1288
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With PRC of all nations, it's a little more complicated than just the global commodity price.
By purchasing oil directly from IR, presumably in violation of sanctions, they actually have a supply that is somewhat independent from both the global commodity price and also potentially from sanctions that might be levied against PRC in the event that *they* do something crazy.
I've stated ad nauseam that I don't know what the motive(s) were for this war, but there are a few objective fringe benefits, if not outright motives. With regard to PRC...
1. Shows US is willing to engage (at least some of their plans for ROC/SCS likely rely on US inaction).
2. Demonstrates that we can still execute large scale shock-and-awe in the maritime/air domains.
3. Reminds them that we can (and will) interfere with their interests in other parts of the world... they can't rely on a Taiwan situation being confined to the first island chain.
By purchasing oil directly from IR, presumably in violation of sanctions, they actually have a supply that is somewhat independent from both the global commodity price and also potentially from sanctions that might be levied against PRC in the event that *they* do something crazy.
I've stated ad nauseam that I don't know what the motive(s) were for this war, but there are a few objective fringe benefits, if not outright motives. With regard to PRC...
1. Shows US is willing to engage (at least some of their plans for ROC/SCS likely rely on US inaction).
2. Demonstrates that we can still execute large scale shock-and-awe in the maritime/air domains.
3. Reminds them that we can (and will) interfere with their interests in other parts of the world... they can't rely on a Taiwan situation being confined to the first island chain.
You correctly point out that the US has stunning military capability and is willing to use it.
But the lesson this war has revealed is that the political/governing class of this nation is unable to ask any sacrifice of its people. Due to this, we are unable to commit to the level of efforts in both time, and levels of escalation, to actually achieve objectives that involve the commitment of the nation.
We have demonstrated, repeatedly, that anything that creates discontent in the stock and bond markets will cause changes in our behavior.
We are enthralled with the capabilities of our smart weapons and other hardware. We also get all excited about the seemingly movie-like capabilities of special forces and special ops.
And all of that amazing capability is by and large disconnected from society at large. Hence the comparatively small number of people who are actually carrying out the missions tend to be viewed by many leaders as pieces on a game board. Or props for "ain't we sumtin?" speeches and rallys.
As soon as it looks like using this military will require any sacrifice of the nation at large, or the wealth of the power class, we back off.
Adversaries and former allies alike know that we can do quick and violent actions across many areas of policy. (economic, military, etc), but if we encounter pushback that will cause sacrifice, particularly from the markets, we become silly putty.
That is what we have shown the world.
It is now over 65 years since JFK's inaugural speech where he said:
"Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country."
Such a sentiment is beyond the ken of our leaders. Hence they are unable to grasp the reality of an adversary that is willing to endure great suffering in order to wage battle with what to us seems unsurmountable odds.
In any fight we pick, we have demonstrated that we lack the ability to commit to a long struggle that asks anything from the ruling class or the nation at large.
04-25-2026 | 04:21 AM
#1289
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That's a horrifying article clearly written by someone with deep expertise in the industry. He projects a shock 4X worse than what covid did to global energy.
But until US airliners get parked en masse, and nonessential travel is banned , and half of us are out on furlough, the usual cheerleaders will just accuse us of hysteria. I hope they're right. But that article is factual, insightful, and impossible to ignore.
But until US airliners get parked en masse, and nonessential travel is banned , and half of us are out on furlough, the usual cheerleaders will just accuse us of hysteria. I hope they're right. But that article is factual, insightful, and impossible to ignore.
Buried in the article was an oblique reference to what the US threatened on the Tuesday after Easter.
(all part of the 'Great Unraveling')
04-25-2026 | 04:33 AM
#1290
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Regarding what lessons other countries have drawn from observing this war, my conclusions are quite different from yours.
You correctly point out that the US has stunning military capability and is willing to use it.
But the lesson this war has revealed is that the political/governing class of this nation is unable to ask any sacrifice of its people. Due to this, we are unable to commit to the level of efforts in both time, and levels of escalation, to actually achieve objectives that involve the commitment of the nation.
We have demonstrated, repeatedly, that anything that creates discontent in the stock and bond markets will cause changes in our behavior.
We are enthralled with the capabilities of our smart weapons and other hardware. We also get all excited about the seemingly movie-like capabilities of special forces and special ops.
And all of that amazing capability is by and large disconnected from society at large. Hence the comparatively small number of people who are actually carrying out the missions tend to be viewed by many leaders as pieces on a game board. Or props for "ain't we sumtin?" speeches and rallys.
As soon as it looks like using this military will require any sacrifice of the nation at large, or the wealth of the power class, we back off.
Adversaries and former allies alike know that we can do quick and violent actions across many areas of policy. (economic, military, etc), but if we encounter pushback that will cause sacrifice, particularly from the markets, we become silly putty.
That is what we have shown the world.
It is now over 65 years since JFK's inaugural speech where he said:
"Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country."
Such a sentiment is beyond the ken of our leaders. Hence they are unable to grasp the reality of an adversary that is willing to endure great suffering in order to wage battle with what to us seems unsurmountable odds.
In any fight we pick, we have demonstrated that we lack the ability to commit to a long struggle that asks anything from the ruling class or the nation at large.
You correctly point out that the US has stunning military capability and is willing to use it.
But the lesson this war has revealed is that the political/governing class of this nation is unable to ask any sacrifice of its people. Due to this, we are unable to commit to the level of efforts in both time, and levels of escalation, to actually achieve objectives that involve the commitment of the nation.
We have demonstrated, repeatedly, that anything that creates discontent in the stock and bond markets will cause changes in our behavior.
We are enthralled with the capabilities of our smart weapons and other hardware. We also get all excited about the seemingly movie-like capabilities of special forces and special ops.
And all of that amazing capability is by and large disconnected from society at large. Hence the comparatively small number of people who are actually carrying out the missions tend to be viewed by many leaders as pieces on a game board. Or props for "ain't we sumtin?" speeches and rallys.
As soon as it looks like using this military will require any sacrifice of the nation at large, or the wealth of the power class, we back off.
Adversaries and former allies alike know that we can do quick and violent actions across many areas of policy. (economic, military, etc), but if we encounter pushback that will cause sacrifice, particularly from the markets, we become silly putty.
That is what we have shown the world.
It is now over 65 years since JFK's inaugural speech where he said:
"Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country."
Such a sentiment is beyond the ken of our leaders. Hence they are unable to grasp the reality of an adversary that is willing to endure great suffering in order to wage battle with what to us seems unsurmountable odds.
In any fight we pick, we have demonstrated that we lack the ability to commit to a long struggle that asks anything from the ruling class or the nation at large.
Americans love watching this stuff on TV, but as soon as Joe Public is asked to make a single material sacrifice, or change his plans and way of life one iota, we will entirely balk as a country.
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