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Originally Posted by Ice Bear
(Post 4030390)
Said it before, will say it again. This 61-day unapproved war/conflict/adventure is Stoopid with two O's. Legality aside, everyone enjoy their gas prices. Spirit is one domino. Genuinely hoping that and Jet A miss the rest.
Yup. Thanks to Trump’s “war” we are worse off and Spirit is the first to tank. |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 4029985)
I know my profit sharing is toast for 2026.
But here's the quiet part out load: My stock investments returned over $100K in six weeks :eek: Somebody somewhere thinks this isn't going to be a long-term catastrophe. WSJ is also reporting that the US blockade of IR (and hunting down their ghost tankers) has really put the squeeze on them. They actually did get a great deal of revenue from selling oil to PRC. Now the question is can the fragmented regime retain control with a collapsing economy? A major lever of control for them has always been the IRGC's deep integration into the economy. Also does the regime even want to drag the economy through the mud? Or would they prefer a way out? They've always been pretty hard-line negotiators because US leaders have pretty always caved... I mean why not? Maybe we find out what their *real* negotiating positions are? We have never fully blockaded them, and we have always chickened out. Some national security types are saying that staying the course will produce the best long-term results for us. People look at the screen, see markets at all-time highs, and are like... nah, this Hormuz closure can't be that bad. Let's put things into perspective... we lost: 13% of oil production20% of LNG production30% of fertilizer production Each production loss is the largest in history and would have catastrophic consequences. Combined? Apparently still not enough to bother the market. IMO a similar situation is occuring now. So we'll just have to sit and wait as the market remains in Nirvana while inventories drain until the entire system breaks. Thats when will be a rush for exit liquidity thru a door that is entirely too small to handle the stampede |
Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 4030460)
https://x.com/i/status/2050230304443408871
Side note....before the Great Financial Crisis the market hit all time highs despite flash red warning signs in Mortgage Backed Securities(MBS)and Bonds. Those that saw the writing on the wall and invested in credit default swaps(CDS)on those MBSs and Bonds were dismayed as the value of those CDSs continued to be marked despite fundamentals that clearly suggested the opposite. IMO a similar situation is occuring now. So we'll just have to sit and wait as the market remains in Nirvana while inventories drain until the entire system breaks. Thats when will be a rush for exit liquidity thru a door that is entirely too small to handle the stampede The fund managers and various big players are convinced the US govt, and especially this administration, will go to extraordinary lengths to underwrite the stock markets as well as the bond market. Since the finance 'industry' has long ago parted ways with the real world, it takes much longer for physical reality to finally assert itself, hence making the crash much worse. Combine that with the belief that this administration would probably do anything, including doubling or tripling the federal debt in order to support the market, and we end up with investors and national wealth funds shoveling hundreds of billions of dollars into market industries that haven't shown a profit. |
Originally Posted by MaxQ
(Post 4030474)
personal opinion.
The fund managers and various big players are convinced the US govt, and especially this administration, will go to extraordinary lengths to underwrite the stock markets as well as the bond market. Since the finance 'industry' has long ago parted ways with the real world, it takes much longer for physical reality to finally assert itself, hence making the crash much worse. Combine that with the belief that this administration would probably do anything, including doubling or tripling the federal debt in order to support the market, and we end up with investors and national wealth funds shoveling hundreds of billions of dollars into market industries that haven't shown a profit. Majority of funds these days are more worried about assets under management than maximizing returns. Analysts are afraid of making calls based on fundamentals because of the"career risk" of going against the crowd. Portfolio Managers are afraid of losing clients after one quarter of underperformance so will add overvalues AI stocks just to run with the crowd. I could go on a similar tangent about Healthcare. The whole system needs a massive flush. This charade will soon be at an end |
Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 4030478)
Agreed.This charade will soon be at an end
Oil shocks, ‘73, ‘79, ‘90, ‘22 & now this are all reminders of Fed limit to cut rates thereby avoiding rampant or worst case, hyperinflation. It’s also a prerequisite for rapid recovery of equity market performance as supply starts to normalize. Which of course it will. But when? The longer the war drags on the longer interest on prime stays high. Higher cost of borrowing decreases present value of per share earnings. What to do? If the past is any guidance, hold quality, diverse portfolios of companies with strong balance sheets and stable cash flows. Do not speculate. |
Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 4030460)
https://x.com/i/status/2050230304443408871
Side note....before the Great Financial Crisis the market hit all time highs despite flash red warning signs in Mortgage Backed Securities(MBS)and Bonds. Those that saw the writing on the wall and invested in credit default swaps(CDS)on those MBSs and Bonds were dismayed as the value of those CDSs continued to be marked despite fundamentals that clearly suggested the opposite. IMO a similar situation is occuring now. So we'll just have to sit and wait as the market remains in Nirvana while inventories drain until the entire system breaks. Thats when will be a rush for exit liquidity thru a door that is entirely too small to handle the stampede |
Originally Posted by Hoosier Daddy
(Post 4030531)
So, I've got to ask. What are you moving your investments into?
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Originally Posted by Ice Bear
(Post 4030390)
Said it before, will say it again. This 61-day unapproved war/conflict/adventure is Stoopid with two O's. Legality aside, everyone enjoy their gas prices. Spirit is one domino. Genuinely hoping that and Jet A miss the rest.
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Originally Posted by METO Guido
(Post 4030521)
Counterpoint if I may…
Oil shocks, ‘73, ‘79, ‘90, ‘22 & now this are all reminders of Fed limit to cut rates thereby avoiding rampant or worst case, hyperinflation. It’s also a prerequisite for rapid recovery of equity market performance as supply starts to normalize. Which of course it will. But when? The longer the war drags on the longer interest on prime stays high. Higher cost of borrowing decreases present value of per share earnings. What to do? If the past is any guidance, hold quality, diverse portfolios of companies with strong balance sheets and stable cash flows. Do not speculate. One of the jokes in the Finance community is a fund manager drives a prospective client to the pier and shows his yacht and also points out other yachts owned by the manager. The client then asks "where are the client's yacht?" |
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
(Post 4030443)
Yup. Thanks to Trump’s “war” we are worse off and Spirit is the first to tank.
It seems like the Ayatollah's greatest trick was convincing the idiots he didn’t exist. . |
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