What, Brent or WTI which are $105 & $112/barrel right now respectively? When and for how long?

 

Do you sources try and peg demand. How can anyone call a price without providing demand estimates.

Seems like just saying in February we had 100m barrels a day of demand @$50 a barrel and the straight pinched off 20m bpd so the 20% shortage will drive prices to $200.

Have your sources tried to estimate capacity creep from other producers? Or tried to establish the Iraq Saudi and UAE pipelines by passing the straight.

If someone wants to call $200 a barrel they should be claiming a demand rate at that price point.

If airlines jack prices 20% and trim schedules 10% that trims demand for oil.

Boat and RV usage can go to 50% utilization from last summer.

I am not saying it won’t go to $200, but the leg work of claiming that is provided with demand reductions not able to outpace supply disruptions.

BTW winter usually has demand breaks from summer so they would already need to explain the inversion in price point if they’re saying $150 July and $200 December.

Producers/refiners know that and historically trim to keep a price point during winter. How did they meet demand @150 for summer but couldn’t for winter and seasonal demand reduction drove it to up to $200? July to December price increase would need a new fundamental reason.

 

Known unknowns..

 

(I should know better than to engage with you, but humans are more emotional than wise)

"Furloughs or no furloughs".
While technically having ones employer cease operation isn't a furlough, it certainly achieves the same result.
The number of people at Spirit was around 17,000, was it not? (And probably thousands more to come as the Spirit shutdown ripples through its vendors)

It is actually worse than a furlough.
All vacation accrued gone.
All accrued sick leave, gone.
All accrued seniority, gone.,

So, for those who predicted furloughs, I would say they pretty much called it right.

 

While Spirit's demise might have been accelerated by the increase in fuel prices, it certainly wasn't the cause.

 

Tell me you don't understand Spirit's problems without actually saying you have no freaken clue of Spirit's problems.

 

This is an incredibly biased and willfully ignorant take.

You know exactly what was meant by wild predictions of, “furloughs!!” Trying to tie an elderly patient already on double life support to ‘furloughs’ to justify your worldview on the issue seriously lacks credibility.

 

Responding to you as a commenter.

Not true at all.
1. Was Spirit in trouble? Obviously.
2. Did they have a post bankruptcy plan that would have worked? No idea.
But I do suspect it was based on fuel prices staying somewhat stable. As they had been for at least the previous 2 to 3 years.
3.Was there a crisis immediately prior to the fuel spike? No, there wasn't. The company and creditors had reached an agreement just prior to the war.
4.Would they be operating today if fuel costs hadn't surged? Almost assuredly they would be.

I have no idea if Spirit was viable long term.But the immediate cause of their running out of cash was the spike in jetA costs.
The spike in the price of jet fuel is a direct result of the current war with Iran.

The above is pretty much objectively factual. It is seperate from my world views and biases.

 

You do realize oil has already been selling for over $150/ barrel for weeks now? Well over $200 in some parts of the world. The futures price is not what you can buy oil for these days.

 

One could suggest that Spirit was the first and the ultimate furlough.

Then again, the Warren Buffett quip about "It’s only when the tide goes out that you discover who’s been swimming naked” comes to mind.