Airline Pilot Central Forums

Airline Pilot Central Forums (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/)
-   Major (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/)
-   -   Economic Impacts of Iran War (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/major/152485-economic-impacts-iran-war.html)

CGLimits 03-18-2026 05:56 AM


Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 4013899)
There were some extreme rogue attitudes back then, likely leftover from the 'All In" mentality needed for WW-II, and enabled by a relative lack of transparency.

Media, and the likes of Frank Church, put most of that to bed in the decades since. Watergate, Iran-Contra and the Biden coverup all blew up in the faces of the perps.

It's even harder in the era of internet, leaks, and now Alt Media




I can't really nail down a single logical motive. So I tend to think you're right, that multiple factors all played into this. Off the top of my head, in no particular order....

Distraction (ICE? JE?)

Subversive political pressure via Mossad?

Payback for decades of murdering American soldiers who were not involved with Iran?

Golden Opportunity, the A-Hole-Atollahs all in the same room together?

Israeli Ultimatum (they can always use their own nukes, and it's a good argument that a conventional war is better than letting IL get backed into what they consider a corner).

Sincere desire to improve ME stability and global economy? It will objectively be better once the dust settles, going to take IR a long time to rebuild. Maybe he views this as his legacy?

Payback for insultingly refusing to negotiate? Assassination plots?

Trump is objectively a narcissist (along with many other pols). But IMO he does not, after careful and lengthy observation, appear to actually be crazy... he just plays a crazy guy on TV.

But again, it doesn't really matter how we got here...

So you say it doesn’t matter how we got here, and we are not going to discuss how we got here, AFTER you post all your thoughts about how we may have gotten here?? Are you the only one allowed to list those?
[MOD EDIT]

METO Guido 03-18-2026 06:06 AM


Originally Posted by N39E002 (Post 4013956)
This is not correct.

The relationship the US has with the Israeli Lobby, the control and power they enjoy, is unique not only in the USA but the world.

The US-Israeli Lobby is nothing like any other lobbying group in existence.

I'm not here to debate whether this benefits the USA and our interests, but to claim the Israeli lobby is "just like any other lobby" is a belief based in denial and lack of awareness.

All evidence points that the Lobby has an immense amount of power and control on not only our foreign policy but in many aspects domestic policy as well.

It is true that not all Jewish people are Zionists and not all Zionists are Jewish, however there is no other example of a foreign lobby in the US that has so much control and power, nor is there another example in the entire world of a foreign lobby having so much control of another country. In that respect, the US-Israeli relationship is totally unique.

It is also true that Zionism was established as an ideological goal well before the Holocaust in Europe.

Clearly successful punching above their weight. Surprising what can be accomplished if you commit to something. The Asian world dwarfs all others. Bear that in mind.


ThumbsUp 03-18-2026 06:28 AM


Originally Posted by N39E002 (Post 4013956)
This is not correct.

The relationship the US has with the Israeli Lobby, the control and power they enjoy, is unique not only in the USA but the world.

The US-Israeli Lobby is nothing like any other lobbying group in existence.

I'm not here to debate whether this benefits the USA and our interests, but to claim the Israeli lobby is "just like any other lobby" is a belief based in denial and lack of awareness.

All evidence points that the Lobby has an immense amount of power and control on not only our foreign policy but in many aspects domestic policy as well.

It is true that not all Jewish people are Zionists and not all Zionists are Jewish, however there is no other example of a foreign lobby in the US that has so much control and power, nor is there another example in the entire world of a foreign lobby having so much control of another country. In that respect, the US-Israeli relationship is totally unique.

It is also true that Zionism was established as an ideological goal well before the Holocaust in Europe.

You didn’t understand what I said. Lobbies exert influence on politics. That is largely a function of spend and the diaspora/culture/business they represent. Yes, and Zionism has existed since David. Having more in common on just about everything with Israel vs Islamist despot states certainly helps their cause.

rickair7777 03-18-2026 06:49 AM


Originally Posted by CGLimits (Post 4013975)
So you say it doesn’t matter how we got here, and we are not going to discuss how we got here, AFTER you post all your thoughts about how we may have gotten here?? Are you the only one allowed to list those?

Maybe motive(s) do matter as to how we get out of this mess. This is kind of like the covid forum, needs careful moderation so as to not go off on the usual partisan dogwhistle tangents.

rickair7777 03-18-2026 07:22 AM


Originally Posted by N39E002 (Post 4013956)
This is not correct.

The relationship the US has with the Israeli Lobby, the control and power they enjoy, is unique not only in the USA but the world.

The US-Israeli Lobby is nothing like any other lobbying group in existence.

I'm not here to debate whether this benefits the USA and our interests, but to claim the Israeli lobby is "just like any other lobby" is a belief based in denial and lack of awareness.

All evidence points that the Lobby has an immense amount of power and control on not only our foreign policy but in many aspects domestic policy as well.

It is true that not all Jewish people are Zionists and not all Zionists are Jewish, however there is no other example of a foreign lobby in the US that has so much control and power, nor is there another example in the entire world of a foreign lobby having so much control of another country. In that respect, the US-Israeli relationship is totally unique.

It is also true that Zionism was established as an ideological goal well before the Holocaust in Europe.


Originally Posted by METO Guido (Post 4013979)
Clearly successful punching above their weight. Surprising what can be accomplished if you commit to something. The Asian world dwarfs all others. Bear that in mind.

All the above is true. They punch well above their weight influence-wise. Some of that is simply close cultural ties to the US, including holocaust sympathy. Some if it is a deliberate and far reaching campaign of influence and manipulation in various western governments (broader than just the governments actually). Probably some Venn diagram overlap.

N39E002 03-18-2026 07:36 AM


Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 4013987)
Maybe motive(s) do matter as to how we get out of this mess. This is kind of like the covid forum, needs careful moderation so as to not go off on the usual partisan dogwhistle tangents.

Do you think getting out of this mess is likely?

I'm thinking we will climb up the escalation ladder and this will significantly hurt our industry, economy and relationships with allies.

rickair7777 03-18-2026 07:55 AM


Originally Posted by N39E002 (Post 4014015)
Do you think getting out of this mess is likely?

I'm thinking we will climb up the escalation ladder and this will significantly hurt our industry, economy and relationships with allies.

We are pretty much already at peak escalation, a full-on invasion simply isn't in the cards from a practical military perspective. IR has nothing left after the SoH, other than random one-off TBM shots and low-intensity terror ops, all of which they've been doing for years anyway. Their AF and Navy are destroyed, and they have no IADS left. We can also plink away at their mech and armor inventory, leaving the ground forces as just light infantry. Not that their ground forces matter aside from domestic oppression and maybe deterring Iraq long-term.

The question now is how long to either open the strait, setup some scheme to enable shipping, or negotiate an armistice. Or likely some combination. Yes there's uncertainty as to duration and extent of economic impact. But the US administration *should* have a political incentive to minimize that (IL probably doesn't, like the GCC they want to get in their licks while the getting is good).

Of note, the GCC states are now pushing the US to fully dismantle IR's force projection capabilities before we call it off. Like most, they were not in favor of this evolution, but not that we're here they want to take full advantage of it.

ShyGuy 03-18-2026 08:19 AM


Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 4013904)
Yes there is a difference.

From experience, I respect the hell out of IL military and intel. I consider them our most valuable ally in the region.

I understand how their world-view came about.

I also don't trust their government agencies or personnel any further than I could throw Gaza with one arm.


I don’t trust Israel - they have their own religious and political agenda. You respect the hell out of their military and intelligence? Remind me who hit and killed and wounded dozens on the USS Liberty? Oops. And how many US warships did Iran take out?

Their intelligence will say what they need to for their own agenda. Eg, convincing the west that Iran was an imminent threat to the west. Despite our own intelligence saying no, they’re at least 10 yrs away at best, and I’m sure you saw the news of a certain somebody in intelligence stepping down saying pretty much just that.


None of this bodes well for us as Americans and the airline industry. And for some of us who actually travel internationally with family, this just paints a big red target on the backs of every American overseas. We are in more danger now as foreigners visiting overseas somewhere.

rickair7777 03-18-2026 08:41 AM


Originally Posted by ShyGuy (Post 4014034)
I don’t trust Israel - they have their own religious and political agenda. You respect the hell out of their military and intelligence?

Professionally? Absolutely! It's almost comical to watch them run rings around the various clown shows in their neighborhood.


Originally Posted by ShyGuy (Post 4014034)
Remind me who hit and killed and wounded dozens on the USS Liberty? Oops.

That was ancient history. But as I said, I don't trust them


Originally Posted by ShyGuy (Post 4014034)
And how many US warships did Iran take out?

They have *tried* to take out many, over many decades. They're just not very good at it.


Originally Posted by ShyGuy (Post 4014034)
Their intelligence will say what they need to for their own agenda. Eg, convincing the west that Iran was an imminent threat to the west. Despite our own intelligence saying no, they’re at least 10 yrs away at best, and I’m sure you saw the news of a certain somebody in intelligence stepping down saying pretty much just that.

Yes I don't trust the IL government. They will blatantly serve their own interests to the exclusion of else, even to the point of tripping over dollars to save dimes. It's almost pathological.


Originally Posted by ShyGuy (Post 4014034)
None of this bodes well for us as Americans and the airline industry.

I think our industry in 2026 is going to take a hit... to sensitive to spikes. The rest of the economy is TBD.


Originally Posted by ShyGuy (Post 4014034)
And for some of us who actually travel internationally with family, this just paints a big red target on the backs of every American overseas. We are in more danger now as foreigners visiting overseas somewhere.

Potentially true, but so low on my list of priorities that I don't even care. I deal with that kind of thing by picking alternative travel destinations. I like to go places where crowds and civil unrest are low and the dollar is high.

rickair7777 03-18-2026 10:17 AM

For those cheering for the Iran team on this, good news...

They damaged five US tankers in SA via drone attack. That plus the two lost from inventory in the midair will constitute a significant degradation tanker capacity, and therefore strike capacity until replaced or repaired.


All times are GMT -8. The time now is 11:58 PM.


Website Copyright © 2026 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands