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Economic Impacts of Iran War

Old 03-19-2026 | 10:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
So how close is your definition of “imminent”?

And do you seriously believe after 47 years of chanting “Death to America!” they were going to suddenly mellow out in the non-imminent time you believe we still had?

So what would you assume would have been the advanyage of letting that day get even closer?
Dick Cheney's "One Percent Doctrine" turned out so well for the United States. Let's do it again!

"If there's a 1% chance that Pakistani scientists are helping al-Qaeda build or develop a nuclear weapon, we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response. It's not about our analysis ... It's about our response."

- Vice President Dick Cheney, November 2001
Sequels are never as good as the original.
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Old 03-20-2026 | 02:26 AM
  #242  
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Originally Posted by METO Guido
All beside the point bs. War on 2 fronts, global energy markets in chaos, government workers left unpaid, DHS sec shagging her boyfriend/bagman while jerking the boss. Truth stranger than fiction.
Another chapter in our multi-decade story of our declining Empire.

I'm not sure what's more sad, watching America fail or realizing of the citizens are too apathetic and uneducated to understand their future is less bright than the generations before them.

Wealth is created, but it also needs to be maintained.
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Old 03-20-2026 | 05:02 AM
  #243  
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This morning the IEA Chief says it will take at least six months to restore energy flows and that this is the greatest ever threat to the Global energy supply. This is all because of the voluntary bilateral actions of the USA and Israel.

How will our industry cope with this? I don't think the airline executives are being sincere with their recent optimism.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.economictimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/iran-war-global-oil-crisis-energy-impact-iea-disruption-gulf-supply-threat-2026-middle-east-war-trump-netanyahu-middle-east/amp_articleshow/129700675.cms
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Old 03-20-2026 | 06:12 AM
  #244  
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Originally Posted by N39E002
Another chapter in our multi-decade story of our declining Empire.

I'm not sure what's more sad, watching America fail or realizing of the citizens are too apathetic and uneducated to understand their future is less bright than the generations before them.

Wealth is created, but it also needs to be maintained.
Difficult if not impossible to see it any other way. Well said. Cheney & Rumsfeld were sharp, dedicated guys that led us straight into a rathole on false pretext. Dead wrong in the belief Islamic populations were finally prepared to join Western values/culture. So of course, we’re doing it all over.

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Old 03-20-2026 | 06:33 AM
  #245  
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Work from home, drive slower, avoid gas cooking, and avoid air travel. So tired of winning….
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Old 03-20-2026 | 06:40 AM
  #246  
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Originally Posted by METO Guido
Difficult if not impossible to see it any other way. Well said. Cheney & Rumsfeld were sharp, dedicated guys that led us straight into a rathole on false pretext. Dead wrong in the belief Islamic populations were finally prepared to join Western values/culture. So of course, we’re doing it all over.
Unfortunately that is true. Some cultures just seem to work better under despot rule. But it doesn't really change much. Eventually, someone was going to have to do what should have been done a long time ago.
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Old 03-20-2026 | 06:53 AM
  #247  
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Originally Posted by flyprdu
And when they land on Kharg Island, and tell you that that's not "the ground," will you believe them?

That is well within the construct of SOF ops and raids which I've discussed in other threads. If you go in, accomplish something, and get out within a matter of days without taking responsibility for local infrastructure or governance that's not a quagmire.

Even if you hold a small island long-term, that's not a big deal. The people on Kharg are mostly there to support the oil ops.

If you dust off your old books from the war college, you can remind yourself that raids and similar activities are options in the early phases. They don't have to be a prelude to OIF style invasion.

As I keep saying, don't get too wrapped in bOotS oN GRoUnD.

A few Boots touching ground isn't the problem.

A lot of Boots staying on the ground would be a problem, and a very big one WRT to IR (much worse than OIF/OEF). For the US. IL seems to be talking up the need for BoG this week, perhaps they're hoping we'll do that for them?
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Old 03-20-2026 | 06:55 AM
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Originally Posted by ThumbsUp
Unfortunately that is true. Some cultures just seem to work better under despot rule. But it doesn't really change much. Eventually, someone was going to have to do what should have been done a long time ago.
True and I have always said that after what I saw what happened to Iraq and Afghanistan after we tried to democratize them. However no matter what we can't let those type of rulers sponsor terror with impunity or worse have nuclear weapons. Because once they have them there is really nothing we can do any more, like North Korea.
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Old 03-20-2026 | 07:46 AM
  #249  
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Originally Posted by N39E002
This morning the IEA Chief says it will take at least six months to restore energy flows and that this is the greatest ever threat to the Global energy supply. This is all because of the voluntary bilateral actions of the USA and Israel.

How will our industry cope with this? I don't think the airline executives are being sincere with their recent optimism.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.econo.../129700675.cms
Jet A up to $4.26/gal

It's mildly OK if fuel prices rise slowly, and in general higher fuel price = better economy, so it's a natural hedge. This is completely different - quick jump in prices, +180% in 30 days. It's also hitting diesel and Jet A harder than regular gasoline.
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Old 03-20-2026 | 09:21 AM
  #250  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
So how close is your definition of “imminent”?

And do you seriously believe after 47 years of chanting “Death to America!” they were going to suddenly mellow out in the non-imminent time you believe we still had?

So what would you assume would have been the advanyage of letting that day get even closer?
DPRK has some pretty nasty anti-US propaganda (they really, really have it out for the 7th Infantry Division), but no one in domestic US politics has been chomping at the bit to bomb them into the Stone Age since the Bush years...I wonder if there are any lessons we can draw from that?
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