What effect would that be? IRGC still in charge, SOH still closed, enriched uranium still unsecured, hundreds of $ billions spent, lives lost, allies alienated, price of oil high?

And again, this just wasn’t a thing for you prior to Feb 28.

The effect would be an Iran without Nuclear weapons nor the capability and will to produce them. It’s not a small undertaking to dismantle a terrorist group that is so entangled in Iranian society.

Then we are further from the effect than before the war started with a list of other serious negative unintended though easily predictable consequences.

I wouldn’t say so. They are certainly farther away from that capability; however, the only way (at least in my lifespan) to remove the will would be complete annihilation of the IRGC/theocracy.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ys-2026-04-21/



It’ll be here. It’s being staged off by market manipulation, shorting futures literally hours before Trump announces something major that drives the market a certain way. Complete manipulation and someone cashing it big time $$$$$.


But once all that’s settled down, paper money value of oil will catch up the physical oil price. America has been pretty insulated. I don’t think the average family that can’t cover a $400 emergency is ready for what’s coming.

They didn't forget how to enrich uranium, but now they are far more motivated to get a nuke as a result of this war. And China & I'd bet Russia are sending them munitions.Incredibly, it appears Netanyahu convinced Trump regime change would be relatively easy via decapitation. This is what happens with Vance, Rubio & Hegseth are the extent of your trusted advisers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/u...-iran-war.html

They didn’t forget. But memory doesn’t infer a capability.

There is no was. Only do

They could of course purchase them from North Korea, Pakistan or even Russia. Those nations never before would have considered a sale. Things are different now. They might even be viewed as the good guys in providing nucs to Iran to protect it from the US who currently is viewed worldwide about the same as Germany in 1940. We have radically destabilized the Middle East. We have also left ourselves dangerously exposed to additional conflicts as we have expended far more weapons than the Pentagon planned or even considered using. JASSM’s available worldwide are down to 425 from 2300 prewar. We have used between 850 and 950 cruise missiles. We procure less than 100 per year.

Negative. This is blatant misinformation and rewriting of history to fit a narrative.

At the start of the conflict, notice the third bullet:

U.S. President Donald Trump announced the strikes in an eight-minute video posted to Truth Social shortly after operations began. He framed the action as major combat operations with these core justifications:

- To defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, described as a "vicious group of very hard, terrible people."

- Iran's "menacing activities" directly endangered the U.S., U.S. troops, bases overseas, and allies.

- Preventing Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon — Trump reiterated that Tehran "can never have a nuclear weapon" and accused the regime of rejecting opportunities to renounce nuclear ambitions while rebuilding its program and developing long-range missiles.

- Broader historical grievances: For 47 years, Iran had chanted "Death to America," supported terrorism and proxies, waged campaigns of bloodshed, and targeted the U.S. and others (referencing events like the 1979-1981 hostage crisis).

Dude…Bibi has literally been telling the world that Iran is “two weeks away” from a nuke for the last twenty years. When the dust finally settles on this one, it won’t be long until we hear the same argument the next time the Israelis want to drop bombs on Iran. How many times do you need to hear the same worn out argument before you realize you’ve been duped by the boy who cried wolf?

Have the Iranians been actively attempting to develop nukes? Of course they have? Have they been two weeks away from that capability for the last twenty years? Almost certainly not. Are there far less disruptive ways to address the problem? Of course there are, but they’re less likely to result in the lavished praise Netanyahu and Trump so desperately seek. This whole thing is about egos.

To cut & run now translates concession. An outcome the enemy hasn’t earned. Seemingly undeterred by the last trimming, confident they know us better than we them. Our leader climbed to power on bold risk taking and deal bluster. Also has a piece of an ear missing. But neither fuehrer nor savior. Denies having ever lost an election. Dismiss any chance of US admitting failure here.

I would have been happy had any side done this over the last 47 years. Time to close their chapter in history.

Yield to Tyranical Theocracy who repeatedly burns our flag and boasts how they can Contamaciously shout and chant "Death to America"?

I certainly welcome and end to the war, and its subsequent benefits to the global economy......

It always used to bother me in my youth during sports how some people who try to get in cheap shots, and if you retaliated it was often you were penalized (the original infraction often unnoticed by officials) but damnmit the MFer never tried it again. Older, wiser and competitions more pressure packed I often tolerated such cheap shots.......but is that right????

I don't really no how I feel at this point. Cognitive dissonance.

We’ll be mired in the region for a decade or more trying to “close their chapter in history”, we won’t achieve the objective, and the second and third order effects will leave us worse off than when we started. How many times do you need to see this movie to know how it ends? Unbelievable the naïveté of people who should know better, but have decided to go all in on their “team’s” spin machine.

The alternative is a Nuclear Iran. Unbelievable the naïveté of people who should know better, but have decided to go all in on their “team’s” spin machine. It's funny how that works.

Sounds like right now it’s an Iranian battle between the realists and the true believers. Realists know that once they reach total oil storage capability and start capping wells those oil fields will be permanently degraded - unless they get fracking technology from the Americans. True Believers will take their little speed boat and go out to engage a missile cruiser while saying it is all the will of Allah.

Sounds like you’re sold on worst case. Our objectives meritless. But are they really? Deny a preeminent state sponsor of Sharia code ICBM/MIRV leverage. Ensure safe passage of vessels on a critical free trade route. Create precedent that nuke ambitions short of existing superpowers capability will inevitably face deterrence at a cost too high to bear. Big picture wise, I’m more than less encouraged, so far, this move CAN payout.

I found a transcript from the Twitter type speech by Trump.

You are correct.
What I stated about when Trump first used Iranian nuke development as a justification for starting this war is objectively false.
You rightly called me out on it.
I Am embarrassed and should be less careless when I assert a fact. ( as opposed to conclusions drawn)

Mea Culpa.

I believe lowslung is stating, and I agree with him, is that everything you wish for already existed prior to Feb 28th

I wish I shared your optimism. Our repeated attempts to social engineer foreign cultures in that part of the world have failed miserably.

Best case scenario is we find a way to declare some kind of empty “victory”, pull back to the previous status quo (IF the IRGC even plays ball with that) while leaving an enormous mess we might be forced to revisit down the line. Nuclear ambition can kicked down the road for a few years.

We have 2.5 years of the current foreign policy, likely 0.5 years before they’re stymied by a non-compliant congressional branch. How long do the IRGC have? ALL they need to do is survive until those two milestones…

As an aside, I’ve been enjoying this discussion and all the differing viewpoints, so mods thanks for keeping it open despite the inevitable political discussion that it’s creating.

Humpty Dumpty. Gone. Where’s an adequate out, everything riding on that now.

Agree. No cultural harmony with Iran anytime soon, not happening. Doesn’t mean we can extinguish a gangland ego trip without boots and gratuitous piles of corpses rotting in the desert sun. But yeah, time is short.

Oh stewardess, I speak jive

No, 18th century nursery rhyme icon. What’s done cannot be undone, any better?
Ted: Elaine, because of my mistake, five men were lost on that mission. Elaine: Six, George Zip died this morning.

Ahh whiskey and apc….at least you made sense in your mind

Well, as bad habits go, Whiskey is the American standard. There is sufficient reason to believe a plausible accord will be struck. But if the answer continues to come back never, there will be blood. For sure. So okay, I hear you. Time to take a stage break. So before I go, here’s to you kiddos..https://youtu.be/MHdXmQ8VPOM?si=Lr_dSRsNZVoDztz8

This generation doesn’t know Airplane…and now my next impression: Jesse Owens.

Not “sold” on anything, just been paying attention for the last 35 years. As someone who’s burned more than my fair share of taxpayer funded JP-8, I’ve seen how this goes from the front seat. Not interested in sending another generation on the same adventure. Nor am I interested in watching the military that I fund through my taxes be worn out and hollowed out on another misguided side quest in the desert. Russia and China are absolutely licking their chops at the prospect of bogging us down in another conflict in the Middle East, chipping away at our military capabilities by the day, while they move unimpeded in their own perceived spheres of influence. You know; chess not checkers & all that.

It would seem, at least as things stand now, that the kinetic phase of this is mostly over, at least in terms of large uses of our stockpile. I would argue we have been resupplying during all of these pauses, and we have been pushing manufacturers to up production. I am not saying you are wrong per se, just that there are varying levels of right. I also think we have shown that for at least the weapons China and Russia have given Iran, they are not an issue for us. I don't want another long-term war either, but I still feel more good has come of this than bad, at least for now.

Keep in mind, this has been something that has been discussed and debated on for 50 years, and finally, someone is doing something about it, besides sending pallets of cash. Our partners in the Middle East, not just Israel, seem very happy that we went in and took care of this problem, as Iran is just as much of a pain in the backside for them as it is for anyone else. The only thing that I don't think we will get in the short term, sadly, is a regime change away from the IRGC or the clerics. Perhaps that happens down the road, but I think Trump is looking for an exit path that will clear the dust (pun intended) and get us out.

If you’re saying occupation is a loser, I’m with you there. If you’re saying we can’t protect global trade and stable markets for free, ditto. Crews working a distant, large scale exercise can’t remain engaged indefinitely and you’re right, there is no shortage of other simmering conflicts to consider. Iran may well renege on any peace deal signed in principle. They also know If we don’t target their next bomb program, Israel will.

Just a couple thoughts on the bolded points:

1. I just don’t see ANY good so far. Regime still stands, nuclear can maybe kicked down the road (after it was already completely obliterated 6 months ago), and we’re on the precipice of a global energy crisis.

2. The gulf states have had tens of billions of dollars of energy infrastructure destroyed, and now they’re looking for a bailout from the US taxpayer which Bessent has said is likely.

3. Yes, he’s been looking for an exit strategy since a week from the start when it was clear it wasn’t an easy in and out like Venezuela. He doesn’t have one because the plan for the “Iranian people to rise up”, with zero organized opposition against an entrenched IRGC was half baked, and that’s being generous. The problem is he has NO exit strategy. The strait is still effectively closed because all it takes from Iran is a few thousand dollar drones a day lobbed from anywhere inside a mountainous area the size of New Jersey.

this is the kicker. Im still genuinely confused where these pro war (prob anti war during the election but hypocrisy aside) think this war is going. Iran CONTROLS the straight. Period. Full stop. Theyve been goaded into a eureka strategic windfall moment of realizing that they can apply pressure anytime they want with almost zero (relative) monetary cost.

so the only way is to go boots on the ground to establish a flot/feba deep enough to allow us to set up an iads?. Are you willing to do that? Are we really willing to shed blood here? There is no out anymore. We completely blundered, and saying that other folks are being cowards for not risking their young men and women for a war WE STARTED is asinine at best.


iran is actively executing combat operations in the straight as i type this, but “we are almost at a deal” or “the war is almost won”……every American should put on their clown shoes because we are definitely the the #1 circus in town

i think the problem is expecting Iran leaders to have logic and reason. Its like arguing with a crazy ex. There is no accountability and consequences.
if the whole contry goes to poop it's the fault of the infidels and "death to America ". If they die then it's off to the 72 virgins amd "praise be".
there is no winning.
I guess just keep the straight blocked, absorb the higher cost of oil, sell the US oil at a profit and keep dropping bombs on whoever sticks their heads up who is in charge and wait.

Fixed it for you.

No good so far, at least to the extent that we reap the benefit.

But given the scale of destruction of IR's tools for malign behavior and influence, there is bound to be some positive effects for regional stability after the dust settles. Whether that juice will be worth the squeeze is one for the historians.

We routinely spend more than on allies and partners. If that's what it takes to smooth things over, that's the cost of doing business.

I can't wait for the Tell-All books, going to be really interesting to see what exactly he thought would be the off ramp, and who sold him on it. But I do know who did *not* lead him on with unrealistic expectations: Dan Caine.


Short term bad news.

But long term that won't hold up... closing the strait with cheap asymmetric weapons relies on the old status quo for how commerce flows through. If this drags on, commerce will adapt (with government intervention if necessary).

Even oil costs will come down. Lots of fields that were marginally cost effective to develop or simply maintain at $65 a barrel are now being developed or maintained at $90.

But this isn’t over before it’s over. The last DECLARED war we fought in, the Commander in Chief decided he would be unwilling to accept the casualties we would have taken with boots on the ground but that a bunch of zealots couldn’t be allowed to stay in power, came up with an alternate solution.

That was a Democrat, Harry Truman.

It’s pretty clear Iran is executing combat operations and filming themselves to try and gain leverage, which they don’t have.

When they realize they can’t spook the markets dramatically filming IRG climbing a ladder in a ski mask they will come to the table.