war is bad overall, but i would not say its a complete waste of time.

Well sir, what's happening TODAY is now Iran has just announced they're going to try and close the Strait again.

Little premature to declare victory, doncha think?

Yep, I thought that was the “Daily Chaos” chart at first glance! Definitely seems to get more volatile with each passing week.

Honestly, all we’ve done is taken a regimen that hates us and made them hate us more.

This will simply consolidate the unification of the Islamic state. It’ll move beyond political boarders. Thats when we really need to be worried.

Pakistan will be key.

Well that’s just perfect. Last stand of the Benny Laden gang iirc.

This guy lol.

during the previous admin russia invaded Ukraine. During this admin we voluntarily shot ourselves in the foot and people on here are shocked that some folks aren’t happy with it……

This is what happens when you are completely consumed by your partisan politics. If the other “side” had started a war with no strategic foresight into the global ramifications they’d be going bonkers, but no, lets come up with a constant string of mental gymnastics to justify our emotional bias.

we’ve blundered, and we look the fools for doing so.

#releasetheepsteinfiles

Now fully open.

Saturday: Two gunboats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard opened fire on a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said. It reported the tanker and crew as safe, without identifying the vessel or its destination. TankerTrackers.com reported vessels were forced to turn around in the strait, including an Indian-flagged super tanker, after they were fired on by Iran.

Tehran's joint military command said the strait is now under "strict management and control of the armed forces" and accused the U.S. of "piracy" -- a reference to Washington's ongoing naval blockade of Iranian ports, which the IRGC says violates the terms of the ceasefire. Until that blockade is lifted, the strait stays shut.

The reversal came just hours after oil markets had already priced in the opening. Brent crude fell roughly 9.5% to around $89.89 a barrel Friday after Trump announced the strait was open. WTI slid more than 10% to $84.89. Those moves are likely to reverse when markets open.

But I thought we won and it's all over? Monumental success!! So much winning...

This is why using the stock markets/commodities markets as one’s primary indicator of success or failure is problematic. Markets (and a great many individuals) apparently have not wrapped their head around the fact that POTUS will absolutely make up whatever stories he thinks the markets will like. He’ll even tell completely contradictory stories over the course of a few days or hours in order to sway opinions his way. And yet the markets wax and wane with his every word. It must be exhausting. Call me when gas and diesel prices come down & Jet A is plentiful around the world again.

and I thought you didn’t consider any one day event to be all that important to the big picture. Hypocrite much?

Before the "excursion": The SoH was open to all traffic.
Today: closed to all traffic.

Before: Oil stable at around $60.
Today: Oil has increased by 50 pct and will likely go higher when markets reopen.

Before: Jet fuel prices stable.
Today: Jet fuel up by an average of 80 pct. (My usual cheap Jet A stop was $3.30/ gal, today they are at $6.35.)

Before: Elderly, ailing imam in charge of the regime, with significant popular discontent posing a real challenge to the regime's continued existence.
Today: More radical, much younger, and likely much angrier imam supposedly in charge. (In reality it's likely competing factions within the IRGC are duking it out for control, which is likely a worse situation than before.) Moreover, we've almost certainly turned public opinion even harder against us, deflecting their hatred for the regime onto the people who have been bombing them.

Before: Russia's oil revenues were $9.7 billion/ month.
Today: Russian oil revenues have doubled to $20 bn/ month.

Before: Iran had enriched uranium buried deep underground.
Today: Iran has enriched uranium buried deep underground.

Before: Iran had a large conventional military capability and a significant asymmetrical warfare capability.
Today: Iran's conventional military has been largely destroyed, but its asymmetric warfare capabilities remain powerful enough to allow them to close one of the world's most critical shipping lanes.

These are the facts. (Aside from my opinion on the stability of the regime, which is just my opinion.) Everything else are verifiable, hard facts.

If this looks like winning to you... Well then you have a different grasp on reality than I do.

Indeed I don't consider one day's events relevant to the big picture. You're the one who posted the S&P graph and the oil price graph, and claimed that yesterday (or whatever day it was) was clear evidence of victory. Which is hilarious.

Grab another brew sportsfan. Not even half time yet.

Also before the excursion: Iran was building alliances with Venezuela, Cuba, Brazil (proxy network), and Mexico. While simultaneously estimated to possess approximately 440 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% purity (60% enrichment is a short technical step from the 90% required for weapons-grade uranium). The IAEA claims that’s enough material for roughly 9 to 12 nuclear bombs.

I think the all or nothing is a global power play. Approximately 70% of China’s oil comes through the SoH. I bet China will play a massive role in getting Oran to the table and getting them to play nice

And that is just the short term tactical stuff.
The rest is much, much worse.(from the interests of the USA viewpoint)

The world is probably the least stable, and hence most dangerous, since the USSR collapse.

That's all true (although Mexico? Haven't heard that). But tell me: how have the last seven weeks changed that? Their enriched material is just buried under more rubble. How has that situation been improved by our military campaign?

100 percent agree. But since we have some posters pointing to a one day drop in oil prices and a new S&P high as evidence of Glorious Strategic Victory, I thought I'd focus on verifiable facts.

Has not much to do with any improvement. RG recovery of superpower fuel will immediately become primary target(s) of the next US/IDF air assault. Quite possibly including a taste of their own medicine.

I kinda had the same thought but then read a really insightful article about how China's long term play here is really about expanding their influence throughout Asia.

China is far ahead of us in terms of alternative energy development (one trip to any Asian capital and all you'll see is Chinese electric cars, and Chinese sponsored energy projects)... skyrocketing oil prices and supply shortages, while they will negatively affect some Chinese industries, actually play to China's long term regional interests.

I believe this is why they haven't gotten involved in any meaningful way. They're playing the long game and letting us continue the process of bleeding ourselves that began with the invasion of Iraq and continues today.

Here’s my vague answer to your question without having the publish an entire essay. It has applied real pressure on Iran’s capabilities and behavior. We have essentially destroyed Iran’s entire military infrastructure. With the broader campaign (naval blockades and sanctions enforcement) they have constrained Iran’s leverage. Now, suddenly Iran is open to negotiations…wow… I wonder why they have a sudden change of heart to be diplomatic with the West?

What results from this “excursion” is TBT.

I don’t think the real feud was hate in that way.

They have wanted to be the authentic rulers of Iran since the revolution, and hate is for us not accepting that. The pursuit of nukes was to force that acceptance.

It’s possible they have been beaten up enough, that they will be considered the authentic rulers and join the world.

The problem with Obama’s deal is that he was going to let the nuke threat force him into considering them authentic so they would have clung to nukes even after agreement expired and they would emerge stronger.

Trump destroyed the leader, the Air Force, the navy, and nuke program. They have clung to the straight so it is now the “source” of their authenticity.

He can give them the straight and he can block their ports that is a stale mate.

So he can recognize their authority now and release their money. But now they can only ever accomplish another stalemate if they “hate us and want to destroy us”

They needed “a hook” to demand to be treated as “authentic rightful rulers” Israel hopefully can live with it being the SOH over nuke ambitions.

If the SOH is their prize position of power hopefully they can be smart enough to stop with proxies and nukes which threaten Israel.

Russia and China “hate” us but the nuke programs are a “stale mate” so they can perceive to not fight and cause violence with each other.

We can all be grateful Jefferson Davis didn’t win our civil war, and tell the world he is authentic and Abe Lincoln was a puppet president propped up by Western Europe.

China and Iran aren’t so luckily.

Random question for the mods, this thread shows 111 pages but ends on page 109. Why do longer threads do that?

Do you think the futures price is the price a barrel is selling for today?

Probably two pages of deleted posts we can't see.

That would make sense.

The assumption that there was a popular threat against the theocracy that had any chance of causing change is a fallacy. I’m not even sure if the son of the previous terrorist is actually brain active (the last I saw he was missing limbs in a coma), but any of them put in charge by the council will be the same. They do not care what the proletariat think. They have their hooks in every segment of rule and plenty of nooses and bullets to go around.

The only solution is complete destruction, which is a grand task that few would have the stomach for.

I'll agree with you that we have significantly weakened Iran's conventional forces. And yet ... All they need are drones , mines, and speedboats with RPGs to completely close the Strait. Two tankers were fired on today and turned around. Given that capability, the fact that we have seriously weakened their more conventional forces is a nice sound bite, but it doesn't change the reality on the ground.

Where have we seen this movie before?

Yup I'll agree with all of that. Which is why the whole notion of "We're going to drop a few bombs, kill some mullahs and change the regime to a friendly one" was so delusional from the start.

Another massive change from "before" to "after" is that before this erupted, Iran never really saw control over the Strait as a realistic strategy for them; they were too afraid of the blowback. Now that they've seized control with nothing more than drones, mines, and speedboats, they have come to realize that control over the Strait gives them almost as much, if not more, leverage than their nuclear program ever did.

You see the location of one of the two ships struck today? Just a couple miles from the Emirati coast, clear across the Gulf from Iranian territory.

Iranian ports are fishing piers until we say otherwise. No mullah gunna nullifilah that.

Maybe the real master class is for us to keep the strait closed too, squeezing china even more.

It’s not a massive change. The world is intentionally not helping Trump.

Let Iran close the straight after the dust is clear of this event and see how fast the whole world responds.

It is helpful they feel they have new found control, and will hopefully help them settle on a deal faster.

Turkey has already promoted an alternative route called “The Middle Corridor”. Iran is losing any leverage they have left by the day.

Trump is lying to the American people. How the deal was so close, how Iran had basically agreed to everything. Now Iran saying they are no where close to an agreement.



Only one side is manipulating the stock market for personal gain and grifting.

Oh nooo. Those sweet mullah mayhem masters would never do anything like that to maintain power or privilege.

We’re both going to suffer if that happens. Which government do you think is going to be able to hold out longer as energy costs skyrocket? Which infrastructure is better suited to weather energy shocks? I wouldn’t put too much stock in the idea that we’d come out ahead in the scenario you describe.

Relax man, open division in Iran just helps educate the intelligence community where to place focus. If he’s found people at the top who will play ball then just have to wait until the next ceasefire to ink this.

They getting a little squirmy realizing it’s the last deal they ever make with so little leverage after this. BTW who is Iran?

Soft but resourceful. Alternately kind and brutal. I wouldn’t want to fight us. Not if I didn’t have to.

You’re right we’ll print our way out and just hyper inflate so we can survive 10/ at the pump. I wouldn’t mess with us either, but no we won’t out last an economic crisis. Particularly self induced