do you have a point? Is there anything you’d care to offer on topic? ADHD issues:)

I don’t have a side. Actions over words. Diesel at $7 JetA at $9 is bad enough. What are the oil boys hollering.. You ain’t seen nothing yet?

For June

“OPEC+ announces 188,000 barrels-per-day output hike in first meet without UAE”



CNBC

yeah but what is that really? More words. Trip is right, Nov is toast

$7 diesel…. What State do you live in. Where Im at on these days off, diesel is $2.00 less than that. Where my wife’s folks live, price for 87 OCT is $3.79. What’s the price where you’re at?

I posted this before, if you eliminate CA from the equation, West Coast average prices immediately drop $0.40.

Is that a fly-over state?

If by flyover you mean where things are affordable, the grass is green and your neighbor isn’t 3 ft away from you… yes

They also don’t have whole towns burning to the ground. They pay low taxes and things generally work much better than in the West Coast. They do however have a lack of outdoor camping grounds downtown.. I guess that’s a negative?

The national average for regular is $4.45. Diesel is $5.64. Where your in-laws live is not the norm.

$7 diesel, California?

in Dallas 87 octane was ~3.90 3 days ago. Looks like today it jumped to 4.11. I was thinking about gas going up to ~$4 back in 2008. Corrected for inflation that’s like 50 bucks right? Well close so I’m not going to sweat anything until $10 a gallon. Anyone want to sell their boats and Excursions?

I check in here every few days to see how well the war is going!
So many great sources of accurate information + many think it may be the best war ever!
Aren’t we all getting tired of so much winning?

Probably 40 states have an average price below the national average.

Cali and Alaska pull national average up and there is no way for a gulf coast or midwest sate to offset that.

Easy to disproportionally have higher prices, not easy to have disproportionally lower prices to offset an average.

I live in a non cheap state (NJ) where we can't even pump our own gas, and today I paid $5.06 for Diesel at the Speedway less than 2 miles from EWR. Yesterday I filled the wife's car for like $4.24 (87 octane)

CA, HI and AK skew the prices horribly. Median price would be better. HI and AK have logistics issues getting fuel there (shipping costs are nuts). CA is self inflicted.

Common yankee misconception. It’s global transactions we live or die on these days. Diesel floats world markets. I may live in mommy’s basement. My checkbook reads in bank notes. Money never keeps pace with future value under the bed.

Whatever. There’s different ways to argue this. The very simple point is the cost of filling up has risen substantially as a direct result of our Presidents unilateral actions.

Pentagon estimates at least 6 months to claim the Strait of Hormuz from mines. ZERO chance oil is in the $70s in June or July. ZERO CHANCE. Oil and it's Refined Products will remain higher for the foreseeable future

Oil hits $150 this summer. $200 possibly by year end

Oil has been marching steadily higher since the war began. The world is only just now beginning to experience the consequences of shutting down the straight. It takes weeks for tankers to cross the ocean. The real question that needs to be answered is; when do prices reverse course? If the straight opens today, it’s months to get ships back into position & we don’t have a ton of information about how much infrastructure has been destroyed or damaged or how long repairs will take. Not sure on what planet oil prices will be $70 by July.

Well, those prices are basically about the same as here in AK, we are a few cents higher...but not by many. We have several refineries in-state.

How dare you bring rationality and facts into this discussion!

pretty profound response.. I’m proven wrong so “whatever”

finally someone makes a real prediction.. I’ll hold ya to it.. Just to be clear, you say furloughs or no furloughs? That was an original prediction.

mine is “in the $70’s, not $70.” All it’s going to take is some SoH announcement that will have an immediate 15% drop, again, just like last month. Ships are already heading to our Gulf of America ports. When the SoH is fully functional that will just add to the return of oil to markets. Between both locations, the rebound will be quick.

What, Brent or WTI which are $105 & $112/barrel right now respectively? When and for how long?

Do you sources try and peg demand. How can anyone call a price without providing demand estimates.

Seems like just saying in February we had 100m barrels a day of demand @$50 a barrel and the straight pinched off 20m bpd so the 20% shortage will drive prices to $200.

Have your sources tried to estimate capacity creep from other producers? Or tried to establish the Iraq Saudi and UAE pipelines by passing the straight.

If someone wants to call $200 a barrel they should be claiming a demand rate at that price point.

If airlines jack prices 20% and trim schedules 10% that trims demand for oil.

Boat and RV usage can go to 50% utilization from last summer.

I am not saying it won’t go to $200, but the leg work of claiming that is provided with demand reductions not able to outpace supply disruptions.

BTW winter usually has demand breaks from summer so they would already need to explain the inversion in price point if they’re saying $150 July and $200 December.

Producers/refiners know that and historically trim to keep a price point during winter. How did they meet demand @150 for summer but couldn’t for winter and seasonal demand reduction drove it to up to $200? July to December price increase would need a new fundamental reason.

Known unknowns..

(I should know better than to engage with you, but humans are more emotional than wise)

"Furloughs or no furloughs".
While technically having ones employer cease operation isn't a furlough, it certainly achieves the same result.
The number of people at Spirit was around 17,000, was it not? (And probably thousands more to come as the Spirit shutdown ripples through its vendors)

It is actually worse than a furlough.
All vacation accrued gone.
All accrued sick leave, gone.
All accrued seniority, gone.,

So, for those who predicted furloughs, I would say they pretty much called it right.

While Spirit's demise might have been accelerated by the increase in fuel prices, it certainly wasn't the cause.

Tell me you don't understand Spirit's problems without actually saying you have no freaken clue of Spirit's problems.

This is an incredibly biased and willfully ignorant take.

You know exactly what was meant by wild predictions of, “furloughs!!” Trying to tie an elderly patient already on double life support to ‘furloughs’ to justify your worldview on the issue seriously lacks credibility.

Responding to you as a commenter.

Not true at all.
1. Was Spirit in trouble? Obviously.
2. Did they have a post bankruptcy plan that would have worked? No idea.
But I do suspect it was based on fuel prices staying somewhat stable. As they had been for at least the previous 2 to 3 years.
3.Was there a crisis immediately prior to the fuel spike? No, there wasn't. The company and creditors had reached an agreement just prior to the war.
4.Would they be operating today if fuel costs hadn't surged? Almost assuredly they would be.

I have no idea if Spirit was viable long term.But the immediate cause of their running out of cash was the spike in jetA costs.
The spike in the price of jet fuel is a direct result of the current war with Iran.

The above is pretty much objectively factual. It is seperate from my world views and biases.

You do realize oil has already been selling for over $150/ barrel for weeks now? Well over $200 in some parts of the world. The futures price is not what you can buy oil for these days.

One could suggest that Spirit was the first and the ultimate furlough.

Then again, the Warren Buffett quip about "It’s only when the tide goes out that you discover who’s been swimming naked” comes to mind.

Really? Were people really running around screaming the end is nigh? Spirit would still be operating today if it weren't for the current state in the ME, which is 100% self-inflicted by the current administration.

I was at Spirit. I bailed when the court judgement went against the merger - on the advice of the senior CAs I was flying with. I understand and sympathize very much with those who had more seniority there than I did and opted to stay. They had more to lose starting over than I did. But NK went into bankruptcy TWICE in less than a year BEFORE the war started. And engine issues they couldn’t promptly address due to the engine manufacturers having used defective supply chains during COVID. Blaming this on Iran in the face of increased competition from the legacies, engine manufacturer problems, serious miscalculation by management and the DOJ as to its viability absent a merger leaves plenty of blame to spread around not involving anything having to do with foreign policy decisions one may or may not agree with.

Blaming “the current administration” is just a little simplistic.

You are correct Cargo.
But it was the immediate and proximate cause.

It doesn't have to be even "blaming the administration".
It was in response to Vax saying the predictions of furloughs hadn't come to pass. Well, they now have. It was the proverbial straw and it is pedantic spin to try and say that "well they don't count" because they were already sick.

I worked for one of the 3 majors that closed their doors in Nov. 1991.
It is quite likely that none of them would have been in business by the end of 1992.
But it is an empirical fact that the first gulf war was the reason that the shut down occurred in Nov '91.
It is disingenuous to say elsewise.

Cool stories. But there were no furloughs at Spirit, as a matter of fact they were Interviewing potential First Officers up to last Thursday. So you are still wrong.

They liquidated simply because they ran out of cash. This was going to happen whether gas prices went up or not. Their business model was not sustainable without an influx of cash every few months. They knew that and tried to merge with another airline...... until Biden foolishly put a stop to that under some misguided anti-competitive belief. How well is that working out now?

You also realize that there have been furloughs over the past few years even when other airlines were hiring right? In addition to Spirit, Avelo and Omni furlough ted. I am sure there were a few others. This was before the price increase.

The point the other posters are making is we all knew what you meant with your ridiculous original prediction, we would see furloughs industry wide. Well that hasn't happened yet. Sorry not sorry

Which President? USA or Iran?



.

Iran's HMFIC was killed on day one.
Soooo.....

Of course it’s simplistic.

Do I blame the current administration for all of Spirit’s problems? No

Do I think fuel costs sealed their fate this week? Yes

Do I think Spirit management has been failing at their jobs for almost 1/2 a decade now? Also yes.

Do I think Spirit is the only carrier that won’t survive this? No.

Pretty simple.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian;
^^^strokemaster believes that. I do not.

The country is run by literal terrorists.

We are going to find out who was naked very soon, especially in AI/Tech stocks