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Originally Posted by Name User
(Post 4029643)
AFG government, such as it was, actively harbored AQ and UBL, so they got what they had coming. I never said 9/11 was a justification for OIF, that's between you and your elected reps. |
Originally Posted by Name User
(Post 4029643)
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 4029655)
Doesn't matter where they came from, it matters who they were working for. As I said, the Saudis took out their own trash after.
AFG government, such as it was, actively harbored AQ and UBL, so they got what they had coming. I never said 9/11 was a justification for OIF, that's between you and your elected reps. |
Well this thread has gone off the tracks....
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Yeah back on topic. So obviously we’re better off than a lot of places, but let’s say there is a huge jet fuel crunch in Incheon, for example, can we reserve gas there or are we in the same spot as everyone else?
Could Europe jet fuel shortfalls mess with our summer plans? |
Originally Posted by MaxQ
(Post 4029528)
On April 7th Trump tweeted a threat to destroy the Persian nation with nuclear weapons. (".....never to be brought back again")
And yes, it appears that he came to that point simply due to impatience. (He had grown frustrstrated with them not surrendering and our economy was being harmed) It isn't the summer of '45. We are not in a total war situation with Iran.(although Iran has been put in a situation where they are in a total war circumstance with the USA) We know what using them entails. Assuming the use could be limited to Iran only, (not a certainty) after the collapse of the Iranian government from the use of nukes, then what? How would the humanitarian crisis be addressed? How would the refugee crisis be addressed? How would the USA survive the fallout of joining the ranks of history's greatest criminals? How would the world avoid devolving to Hobbesian chaos and fractured disaster? Only complete "f.. .ing morons" think that today a nuke can be used and it will be just a 'one off, that's it' event. I hope someday we find out what occurred on April 7th. And then put structures in place to control any phsycopaths with access to such power. |
Originally Posted by jerryleber
(Post 4029611)
The context of 1945 was an estimate of a million US casualties by conventional means not "to save even one US life or one US dollar." Thus, my response. I am glad you now seem to agree it "would be clearly illegal and non-proportional" today.
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Originally Posted by Extenda
(Post 4029706)
Yeah back on topic. So obviously we’re better off than a lot of places, but let’s say there is a huge jet fuel crunch in Incheon, for example, can we reserve gas there or are we in the same spot as everyone else?
Could Europe jet fuel shortfalls mess with our summer plans? |
Originally Posted by Extenda
(Post 4029706)
Yeah back on topic. So obviously we’re better off than a lot of places, but let’s say there is a huge jet fuel crunch in Incheon, for example, can we reserve gas there or are we in the same spot as everyone else?
Could Europe jet fuel shortfalls mess with our summer plans? |
Originally Posted by METO Guido
(Post 4029714)
Too late. It already has. But the FIFA World Cup is still a go. So at least there’s that:)
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Originally Posted by at6d
(Post 4029780)
I checked ticket prices today again. Looks like I’m not going. Over $2K? Yeah right.
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Originally Posted by at6d
(Post 4029780)
I checked ticket prices today again. Looks like I’m not going. Over $2K? Yeah right.
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Originally Posted by JurgenKlopp
(Post 4029885)
FIFA and MAGA combined powers. Who would of thought this result…
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Originally Posted by at6d
(Post 4029780)
I checked ticket prices today again. Looks like I’m not going. Over $2K? Yeah right.
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Gas prices are at a 4 year high. Are we winning yet?
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Originally Posted by Hubcapped
(Post 4029975)
Gas prices are at a 4 year high. Are we winning yet?
But here's the quiet part out load: My stock investments returned over $100K in six weeks :eek: Somebody somewhere thinks this isn't going to be a long-term catastrophe. WSJ is also reporting that the US blockade of IR (and hunting down their ghost tankers) has really put the squeeze on them. They actually did get a great deal of revenue from selling oil to PRC. Now the question is can the fragmented regime retain control with a collapsing economy? A major lever of control for them has always been the IRGC's deep integration into the economy. Also does the regime even want to drag the economy through the mud? Or would they prefer a way out? They've always been pretty hard-line negotiators because US leaders have pretty always caved... I mean why not? Maybe we find out what their *real* negotiating positions are? We have never fully blockaded them, and we have always chickened out. Some national security types are saying that staying the course will produce the best long-term results for us. |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 4029985)
I know my profit sharing is toast for 2026.
But here's the quiet part out load: My stock investments returned over $100K in six weeks :eek: |
Gains on paper are not gains.
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Originally Posted by Hubcapped
(Post 4029975)
Gas prices are at a 4 year high. Are we winning yet?
https://en.macromicro.me/series/2300...gular-unleaded |
Originally Posted by Hubcapped
(Post 4029975)
Gas prices are at a 4 year high. Are we winning yet?
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Originally Posted by khergan
(Post 4029988)
This market is frothier than a milkshake. Those paper gains will probably tank in a week or two when all the wild speculation switches to put options and shorts.
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Originally Posted by WhistlePig
(Post 4029991)
Gains on paper are not gains.
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Originally Posted by Uninteresting
(Post 4030114)
numbers in an investment account aren’t real money. they are just numbers. after all, whatever goes up, has to come down.
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Originally Posted by Uninteresting
(Post 4030114)
numbers in an investment account aren’t real money. they are just numbers. after all, whatever goes up, has to come down.
alt=""https://i.postimg.cc/c13BGbRQ/IMG-8021.jpg Doesn’t mean it can’t, nor that it won’t, but how are your silver dollars buried in a coffee can in the back yard doing? Do you still remember where you buried them? Just kidding, although I do know a family who - when grandpa fell off the twig - had to uproot the whole back and front yard before they dared sell the house. Fortunately the Friends of the Library they donated the collection of novels to called them up when they dropped one of the old guy’s library and $20 bills came fluttering out from every 25 pages or so… |
Originally Posted by Uninteresting
(Post 4030114)
numbers in an investment account aren’t real money. they are just numbers. after all, whatever goes up, has to come down.
Long term it's always gone up, we know as far back as 1600. Through laziness or a slight tendency to follow financially conservative advice, I've always left my stuff in the market, and it's paid off. Very few can time the market, probably count them on the fingers of one hand (warren, etc). That's not an absolute under all circumstances, nuclear war, asteroid impact, zombie apocalypse... a major reset to global civilization could be problematic. Guess you could invest in gold and pallets of NATO 7.62. |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 4030154)
Sure hasn’t worked that way with inflation over the years. Nor with a BROADLY diversified mutual fund.
alt=""https://i.postimg.cc/c13BGbRQ/IMG-8021.jpg Doesn’t mean it can’t, nor that it won’t, but how are your silver dollars buried in a coffee can in the back yard doing? Do you still remember where you buried them? Just kidding, although I do know a family who - when grandpa fell off the twig - had to uproot the whole back and front yard before they dared sell the house. Fortunately the Friends of the Library they donated the collection of novels to called them up when they dropped one of the old guy’s library and $20 bills came fluttering out from every 25 pages or so… |
Originally Posted by Hubcapped
(Post 4029975)
Gas prices are at a 4 year high. Are we winning yet?
He did say everyone would be tired of so much winning. |
Originally Posted by JurgenKlopp
(Post 4029885)
FIFA and MAGA combined powers. Who would of thought this result…
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https://x.com/i/status/2050406348748378495
Japan stopped publishing the oil data. Fujairah is near tank bottom. European oil inventories are collapsing. US is the only visible one left with cushion. The US is 20% of global oil inventories. When the market sees how fast visible onshore inventories decline, the inflection point will come. |
Said it before, will say it again. This 61-day unapproved war/conflict/adventure is Stoopid with two O's. Legality aside, everyone enjoy their gas prices. Spirit is one domino. Genuinely hoping that and Jet A miss the rest.
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Originally Posted by Ice Bear
(Post 4030390)
Said it before, will say it again. This 61-day unapproved war/conflict/adventure is Stoopid with two O's. Legality aside, everyone enjoy their gas prices. Spirit is one domino. Genuinely hoping that and Jet A miss the rest.
Yup. Thanks to Trump’s “war” we are worse off and Spirit is the first to tank. |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 4029985)
I know my profit sharing is toast for 2026.
But here's the quiet part out load: My stock investments returned over $100K in six weeks :eek: Somebody somewhere thinks this isn't going to be a long-term catastrophe. WSJ is also reporting that the US blockade of IR (and hunting down their ghost tankers) has really put the squeeze on them. They actually did get a great deal of revenue from selling oil to PRC. Now the question is can the fragmented regime retain control with a collapsing economy? A major lever of control for them has always been the IRGC's deep integration into the economy. Also does the regime even want to drag the economy through the mud? Or would they prefer a way out? They've always been pretty hard-line negotiators because US leaders have pretty always caved... I mean why not? Maybe we find out what their *real* negotiating positions are? We have never fully blockaded them, and we have always chickened out. Some national security types are saying that staying the course will produce the best long-term results for us. People look at the screen, see markets at all-time highs, and are like... nah, this Hormuz closure can't be that bad. Let's put things into perspective... we lost: 13% of oil production20% of LNG production30% of fertilizer production Each production loss is the largest in history and would have catastrophic consequences. Combined? Apparently still not enough to bother the market. IMO a similar situation is occuring now. So we'll just have to sit and wait as the market remains in Nirvana while inventories drain until the entire system breaks. Thats when will be a rush for exit liquidity thru a door that is entirely too small to handle the stampede |
Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 4030460)
https://x.com/i/status/2050230304443408871
Side note....before the Great Financial Crisis the market hit all time highs despite flash red warning signs in Mortgage Backed Securities(MBS)and Bonds. Those that saw the writing on the wall and invested in credit default swaps(CDS)on those MBSs and Bonds were dismayed as the value of those CDSs continued to be marked despite fundamentals that clearly suggested the opposite. IMO a similar situation is occuring now. So we'll just have to sit and wait as the market remains in Nirvana while inventories drain until the entire system breaks. Thats when will be a rush for exit liquidity thru a door that is entirely too small to handle the stampede The fund managers and various big players are convinced the US govt, and especially this administration, will go to extraordinary lengths to underwrite the stock markets as well as the bond market. Since the finance 'industry' has long ago parted ways with the real world, it takes much longer for physical reality to finally assert itself, hence making the crash much worse. Combine that with the belief that this administration would probably do anything, including doubling or tripling the federal debt in order to support the market, and we end up with investors and national wealth funds shoveling hundreds of billions of dollars into market industries that haven't shown a profit. |
Originally Posted by MaxQ
(Post 4030474)
personal opinion.
The fund managers and various big players are convinced the US govt, and especially this administration, will go to extraordinary lengths to underwrite the stock markets as well as the bond market. Since the finance 'industry' has long ago parted ways with the real world, it takes much longer for physical reality to finally assert itself, hence making the crash much worse. Combine that with the belief that this administration would probably do anything, including doubling or tripling the federal debt in order to support the market, and we end up with investors and national wealth funds shoveling hundreds of billions of dollars into market industries that haven't shown a profit. Majority of funds these days are more worried about assets under management than maximizing returns. Analysts are afraid of making calls based on fundamentals because of the"career risk" of going against the crowd. Portfolio Managers are afraid of losing clients after one quarter of underperformance so will add overvalues AI stocks just to run with the crowd. I could go on a similar tangent about Healthcare. The whole system needs a massive flush. This charade will soon be at an end |
Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 4030478)
Agreed.This charade will soon be at an end
Oil shocks, ‘73, ‘79, ‘90, ‘22 & now this are all reminders of Fed limit to cut rates thereby avoiding rampant or worst case, hyperinflation. It’s also a prerequisite for rapid recovery of equity market performance as supply starts to normalize. Which of course it will. But when? The longer the war drags on the longer interest on prime stays high. Higher cost of borrowing decreases present value of per share earnings. What to do? If the past is any guidance, hold quality, diverse portfolios of companies with strong balance sheets and stable cash flows. Do not speculate. |
Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 4030460)
https://x.com/i/status/2050230304443408871
Side note....before the Great Financial Crisis the market hit all time highs despite flash red warning signs in Mortgage Backed Securities(MBS)and Bonds. Those that saw the writing on the wall and invested in credit default swaps(CDS)on those MBSs and Bonds were dismayed as the value of those CDSs continued to be marked despite fundamentals that clearly suggested the opposite. IMO a similar situation is occuring now. So we'll just have to sit and wait as the market remains in Nirvana while inventories drain until the entire system breaks. Thats when will be a rush for exit liquidity thru a door that is entirely too small to handle the stampede |
Originally Posted by Hoosier Daddy
(Post 4030531)
So, I've got to ask. What are you moving your investments into?
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Originally Posted by Ice Bear
(Post 4030390)
Said it before, will say it again. This 61-day unapproved war/conflict/adventure is Stoopid with two O's. Legality aside, everyone enjoy their gas prices. Spirit is one domino. Genuinely hoping that and Jet A miss the rest.
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Originally Posted by METO Guido
(Post 4030521)
Counterpoint if I may…
Oil shocks, ‘73, ‘79, ‘90, ‘22 & now this are all reminders of Fed limit to cut rates thereby avoiding rampant or worst case, hyperinflation. It’s also a prerequisite for rapid recovery of equity market performance as supply starts to normalize. Which of course it will. But when? The longer the war drags on the longer interest on prime stays high. Higher cost of borrowing decreases present value of per share earnings. What to do? If the past is any guidance, hold quality, diverse portfolios of companies with strong balance sheets and stable cash flows. Do not speculate. One of the jokes in the Finance community is a fund manager drives a prospective client to the pier and shows his yacht and also points out other yachts owned by the manager. The client then asks "where are the client's yacht?" |
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
(Post 4030443)
Yup. Thanks to Trump’s “war” we are worse off and Spirit is the first to tank.
It seems like the Ayatollah's greatest trick was convincing the idiots he didn’t exist. . |
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