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Originally Posted by MaxQ
(Post 4031742)
Iran's HMFIC was killed on day one.
Soooo..... So? Also, do you honestly believe that was “day 1”? . |
Originally Posted by word302
(Post 4031743)
Of course it’s simplistic.
Do I blame the current administration for all of Spirit’s problems? No Do I think fuel costs sealed their fate this week? Yes Do I think Spirit management has been failing at their jobs for almost 1/2 a decade now? Also yes. Do I think Spirit is the only carrier that won’t survive this? No. Pretty simple. Assuming, of course, their competitors were also getting $2.60/gal fuel? |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 4031805)
So at $2.60 a gallon for Jet A, how many additional weeks do you believe they MIGHT have survived?
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Originally Posted by MaxQ
(Post 4031717)
You are correct Cargo.
But it was the immediate and proximate cause. It doesn't have to be even "blaming the administration". It was in response to Vax saying the predictions of furloughs hadn't come to pass. Well, they now have. It was the proverbial straw and it is pedantic spin to try and say that "well they don't count" because they were already sick. I worked for one of the 3 majors that closed their doors in Nov. 1991. It is quite likely that none of them would have been in business by the end of 1992. But it is an empirical fact that the first gulf war was the reason that the shut down occurred in Nov '91. It is disingenuous to say elsewise. Fwiw, I wouldn’t want to work for beach boy Comey. Far too shiftless. But I respect and believe him. For everything, there really is a season:) |
Originally Posted by METO Guido
(Post 4031854)
the longer this drags on, the more likely furloughs for the weakest to follow. Chitty business sometimes.
Fwiw, I wouldn’t want to work for beach boy Comey. Far too shiftless. But I respect and believe him. For everything, there really is a season:) |
Originally Posted by AAdvocate
(Post 4031860)
How do you get to keep responding to this yet our response get blocked? Mods, what's the deal?
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Originally Posted by AAdvocate
(Post 4031860)
How do you get to keep responding to this yet our response get blocked? Mods, what's the deal?
|
No one is arguing that fuel prices was not the final nail in the Spirit coffin. Obviously that tipped them over the (tenuous and teetering) edge. If it wasn’t fuel prices, it would very likely have been something else in the near term.
But to pretend that Spirit is some kind of bellwether and confirmation of early predictions of “Black Swan!” and “industry furloughs are imminent!” is massively disingenuous. And, I would argue reveals some genuine bias and/or willful ignorance. |
Originally Posted by METO Guido
(Post 4031863)
tradecraft. Otherspeak, lingo, sign, blink. Use your imagination. Never give up on the co.
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Originally Posted by FangsF15
(Post 4031866)
I see you have posted the same response like 5 or 6 times. I’m not sure why you can’t see your own posts.
Originally Posted by MaxQ
(Post 4031717)
You are correct Cargo.
But it was the immediate and proximate cause. It doesn't have to be even "blaming the administration". It was in response to Vax saying the predictions of furloughs hadn't come to pass. Well, they now have. It was the proverbial straw and it is pedantic spin to try and say that "well they don't count" because they were already sick. I worked for one of the 3 majors that closed their doors in Nov. 1991. It is quite likely that none of them would have been in business by the end of 1992. But it is an empirical fact that the first gulf war was the reason that the shut down occurred in Nov '91. It is disingenuous to say elsewise. |
Originally Posted by AAdvocate
(Post 4031909)
My response to the below, which was reasonable, was not posted
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Originally Posted by FangsF15
(Post 4031913)
This post was automatically flagged for approval/moderation by the system. I don’t know why it was flagged. I deleted 4 duplicates of you replying with the same post. Again, no idea why you aren’t seeing your own posts. They were not flagged.
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Originally Posted by AAdvocate
(Post 4031916)
That's a shame, it was some pretty primo stuff. Was going to change hearts and minds.
Take the rest to PM please |
Originally Posted by FangsF15
(Post 4031924)
Post 1514. Don’t know what else to tell you.
Take the rest to PM please |
Originally Posted by AAdvocate
(Post 4031916)
That's a shame, it was some pretty primo stuff. Was going to change hearts and minds.
|
Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 4031782)
We are going to find out who was naked very soon, especially in AI/Tech stocks
There can be 2 correct answers to investing. If you doubt me .....do a search of SOXL on APC a little over a year ago and my shout out to you re oil about a week ago and you will see the advocacy.(I worry about demand destruction which I don't think has been adequately addressed thus taking 20% off today) One should look for logical investing opportunities as opposed to reasons to quake in your boots thereby missing golden opportunities. |
Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 4030460)
https://x.com/i/status/2050230304443408871
Side note....before the Great Financial Crisis the market hit all time highs despite flash red warning signs in Mortgage Backed Securities(MBS)and Bonds. Those that saw the writing on the wall and invested in credit default swaps(CDS)on those MBSs and Bonds were dismayed as the value of those CDSs continued to be marked despite fundamentals that clearly suggested the opposite. IMO a similar situation is occuring now. So we'll just have to sit and wait as the market remains in Nirvana while inventories drain until the entire system breaks. Thats when will be a rush for exit liquidity thru a door that is entirely too small to handle the stampede |
Originally Posted by STIorSTD
(Post 4031996)
similar in what way? Private credit? AI?
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Anyone see the famed economist GarySchilling predict a massive recession by the end of 2026?
he also said this last year https://www.thinkadvisor.com/amp/202...market-likely/ Hope some of you listened and held cash in 2025. I didn’t listen unfortunately… the gains were quite concerning. |
Originally Posted by STIorSTD
(Post 4031996)
similar in what way? Private credit? AI?
Reality will settle in as inventories continue to rapidly decline in the next couple of months |
Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 4032156)
The market is not pricing in the largest energy crisis in the modern history of the human race. Ask AI bulls where the helium for Semiconductor production growth will come from.
Reality will settle in as inventories continue to rapidly decline in the next couple of months |
Originally Posted by vaksedtothemax
(Post 4032155)
Anyone see the famed economist GarySchilling predict a massive recession by the end of 2026?
he also said this last year https://www.thinkadvisor.com/amp/202...market-likely/ Hope some of you listened and held cash in 2025. I didn’t listen unfortunately… the gains were quite concerning. Shilling maintained his cautious strategy while tweaking language from previous commentaries, recommending that investors "hold extra cash as a bear market in equities unfolds," the newsletter, released Wednesday, says. Shilling again suggested investors go long the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds, "the other safe haven, which also should rise in price as the Fed eases credit and the recession unfolds." He continued to recommend investors "avoid vastly-overpriced stocks," like the Magnificent Seven, artificial intelligence stocks and cryptocurrency securities. |
Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 4032156)
The market is not pricing in the largest energy crisis in the modern history of the human race. Ask AI bulls where the helium for Semiconductor production growth will come from.
Reality will settle in as inventories continue to rapidly decline in the next couple of months Who is the winner? If I am all cash staring this week where do I invest and ride this wave of 80 million barrels per day quadrupling in value. The people who are sitting on 20 million barrels a day that they can’t ship out, where and what companies are they emergency spending their money on to get product out. Who cares about a recession if this thing is already called, and you can just show us the money. When the market prices the largest energy crisis human history in who will the winners be? Don’t bore us with the losers. |
Originally Posted by Trip7
(Post 4032156)
The market is not pricing in the largest energy crisis in the modern history of the human race. Ask AI bulls where the helium for Semiconductor production growth will come from.
Reality will settle in as inventories continue to rapidly decline in the next couple of months |
Originally Posted by OpieTaylor
(Post 4032186)
So 80% of the world’s oil is either tripling or quadrupling in value for the long term. The oil sheiks who can’t get their oil out will be going BK sitting on product they can’t sell.
Who is the winner? If I am all cash staring this week where do I invest and ride this wave of 80 million barrels per day quadrupling in value. The people who are sitting on 20 million barrels a day that they can’t ship out, where and what companies are they emergency spending their money on to get product out. Who cares about a recession if this thing is already called, and you can just show us the money. When the market prices the largest energy crisis human history in who will the winners be? Don’t bore us with the losers. |
Originally Posted by dsevo
(Post 4032217)
Im just so impressed that I fly with macroeconomic savants while the market is entirely missing it. Damn, pilots are gifted.
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Originally Posted by word302
(Post 4032231)
It's funny that you think you have to be a savant to see some of the downline affects that are headed our way in the very near future.
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Originally Posted by Lowslung
(Post 4032220)
Wish you the best in making a quick buck. There are a few here, myself included, who are more concerned with the “unknown unknowns” and unintended second and third order effects that come with breaking global supply chains. We’re likely going to see a whole lot of things happening that nobody predicted over the next months and years. If your only interest is breaking things down into transactional opportunities, go for it. Just don’t expect us all to think the way you do.
Call the next bull run. You wanna call a go-around from the top of decent go for it, but the better call is for delay vectors to stick the landing I get it’s politically prideful to call and adversary’s failure, but once we switch to where the winners and losers are in the market why are we only focused on the losers to prove our vision is so good. Gas prices are up $1.50 gallon in the US, no ones cost have gone up, the earrings will show up somewhere. They are not mailing stimulus checks to oil sheiks using their new found profits to balance the winners and losers. |
Originally Posted by dsevo
(Post 4032217)
Im just so impressed that I fly with macroeconomic savants while the market is entirely missing it. Damn, pilots are gifted.
I’m glad some here most likely got out when the market dipped last month. I wouldn’t want them to experience all the losing |
Originally Posted by Lowslung
(Post 4032220)
Wish you the best in making a quick buck. There are a few here, myself included, who are more concerned with the “unknown unknowns” and unintended second and third order effects that come with breaking global supply chains. We’re likely going to see a whole lot of things happening that nobody predicted over the next months and years. If your only interest is breaking things down into transactional opportunities, go for it. Just don’t expect us all to think the way you do.
where were ya then? Meanwhile, 80% of the worlds oil is still moving, the ME oil is on standby, but somehow y'all think it’ll take years to get that oil to it’s offloading position. You would have some actual credibility if you hadn’t dismissed the 3 yrs of insane prices under Biden, would have called him out for depleting the Strategic Oil Reserves right before the election, or acknowledged the years of high gas prices under the Opressed Obama family. Hell I’m already saving $12k a year on a refi for one of my properties this year. Gas has cost me maybe $200 extra the last 2 months. The math says I’m ahead. |
Originally Posted by vaksedtothemax
(Post 4032257)
I remember not too long ago when other supply chains were disrupted, stay indoors they said… Democrats said boo about it.. meanwhile used car prices skyrocketed, you couldn’t build a small single door deck for less than $5k, and eggs skyrocketed. How ‘bout those egg prices btw!
where were ya then? Meanwhile, 80% of the worlds oil is still moving, the ME oil is on standby, but somehow y'all think it’ll take years to get that oil to it’s offloading position. You would have some actual credibility if you hadn’t dismissed the 3 yrs of insane prices under Biden, would have called him out for depleting the Strategic Oil Reserves right before the election, or acknowledged the years of high gas prices under the Opressed Obama family. Hell I’m already saving $12k a year on a refi for one of my properties this year. Gas has cost me maybe $200 extra the last 2 months. The math says I’m ahead. People are stretched. The increase in gas price and the subsequent inflation it’s going to cause for every other consumer good is going to put even more people over the edge. This is going to be a serious problem for the foreseeable future for many. |
Originally Posted by Extenda
(Post 4032267)
I think we kind of live in a pilot bubble. Things are good if you have equity, which the majority of Americans don’t. I think you’re being cavalier about the plight of people who live pay check to pay check. They were promised lower prices (prices will never get lower, they’ll just hopefully keep going up at a slower rate).
People are stretched. The increase in gas price and the subsequent inflation it’s going to cause for every other consumer good is going to put even more people over the edge. This is going to be a serious problem for the foreseeable future for many. None of them have stopped doing what we all do on days off. Nobody has cancelled vacations etc. The only way inflation and the reset to new highs under Biden, occur is for deflation and a shrinking economy. Democrats are relying on the lowest denominator not knowing this. Ya know what I forgot about? “Boots on the ground!” where are my “boots on the ground” guys at? When you say “inflation” you should always preempt that with “ it’s not 9% so…. “ Finally, what and whose policies led to the largest transfer of wealth in US history, destroyed the middle class and destroyed countless small businesses? |
Originally Posted by vaksedtothemax
(Post 4032282)
I literally hang out with zero pilots outside of work, maybe one guy who owns a company has pilot type money .. no one is saying ”these fuel prices are great, give me more”. What everyone to a man says though is everytime the media and Liberal left starts ramping up all these doomsday scenarios they are always proven wrong… along with every lie about some speech or other political narrative. Basically none of them trust anything they see or hear from mainstream outlets. And everyone believes when Iran is over things will go back to normal unlike the 2021-2024 era.
None of them have stopped doing what we all do on days off. Nobody has cancelled vacations etc. The only way inflation and the reset to new highs under Biden, occur is for deflation and a shrinking economy. Democrats are relying on the lowest denominator not knowing this. Ya know what I forgot about? “Boots on the ground!” where are my “boots on the ground” guys at? When you say “inflation” you should always preempt that with “ it’s not 9% so…. “ Finally, what and whose policies led to the largest transfer of wealth in US history, destroyed the middle class and destroyed countless small businesses? |
Originally Posted by vaksedtothemax
(Post 4032282)
I literally hang out with zero pilots outside of work, maybe one guy who owns a company has pilot type money .. no one is saying ”these fuel prices are great, give me more”. What everyone to a man says though is everytime the media and Liberal left starts ramping up all these doomsday scenarios they are always proven wrong… along with every lie about some speech or other political narrative. Basically none of them trust anything they see or hear from mainstream outlets. And everyone believes when Iran is over things will go back to normal unlike the 2021-2024 era.
None of them have stopped doing what we all do on days off. Nobody has cancelled vacations etc. The only way inflation and the reset to new highs under Biden, occur is for deflation and a shrinking economy. Democrats are relying on the lowest denominator not knowing this. Ya know what I forgot about? “Boots on the ground!” where are my “boots on the ground” guys at? When you say “inflation” you should always preempt that with “ it’s not 9% so…. “ Finally, what and whose policies led to the largest transfer of wealth in US history, destroyed the middle class and destroyed countless small businesses? |
Originally Posted by PineappleXpres
(Post 4032284)
The oligarchs, not the unions.
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Originally Posted by vaksedtothemax
(Post 4032159)
if I were you I’d get out now… stuff cash under your bed. This is just like 2008 where banks gave unlimited funds to financially low IQ individuals to buy homes they could never afford. Illegal immigrants and professional tire changers definitely deserved $750k pool homes.
https://x.com/i/status/2051769864591671648 Interesting times ahead |
Originally Posted by vaksedtothemax
(Post 4032257)
I remember not too long ago when other supply chains were disrupted, stay indoors they said… Democrats said boo about it.. meanwhile used car prices skyrocketed, you couldn’t build a small single door deck for less than $5k, and eggs skyrocketed. How ‘bout those egg prices btw!
where were ya then? Meanwhile, 80% of the worlds oil is still moving, the ME oil is on standby, but somehow y'all think it’ll take years to get that oil to it’s offloading position. You would have some actual credibility if you hadn’t dismissed the 3 yrs of insane prices under Biden, would have called him out for depleting the Strategic Oil Reserves right before the election, or acknowledged the years of high gas prices under the Opressed Obama family. Hell I’m already saving $12k a year on a refi for one of my properties this year. Gas has cost me maybe $200 extra the last 2 months. The math says I’m ahead. |
Originally Posted by word302
(Post 4032283)
So humor me. If we strike a deal with Iran tomorrow and oil starts flowing again in a week or 2, What will we have that we didn't have 2 months ago? What have we gained here? How is the average American better off after engaging in this endeavor?
The crypto biz and military contracts have been wonderful. Everything is getting gold plated and we are printing $1 trillion dollars every 5 months - Mo money, mo money! |
Originally Posted by word302
(Post 4032283)
So humor me. If we strike a deal with Iran tomorrow and oil starts flowing again in a week or 2, What will we have that we didn't have 2 months ago? What have we gained here? How is the average American better off after engaging in this endeavor?
2 months ago we had a president showing you the value of working through his policy’s and trying to keep energy cheap. |
Originally Posted by OpieTaylor
(Post 4032309)
Trump can’t be the president forever to help keep energy cheap.
2 months ago we had a president showing you the value of working through his policy’s and trying to keep energy cheap. |
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