"mad as a hatter"

Do you still wear one in a car by yourself? GMAFB!

Even Chuck Schumer called out Obama’s deal as terrible on the senate floor, and would have led them to a nuke by now already. It’s on video. That deal was a massive giveaway, and released over a BILLION dollars in cash Iran used to make EFP IED’s that killed and maimed our boys (and a few girls).

Since you brought it up, masks are worthless, unless they are N-95, properly fitted, and not jammed in your pocket 10x a day (contaminating your hands, pockets, and anything else you touch. Also, it wasn’t a vaccine. Despite what the MSM said, it did not “stop the spread”. Some famous personalities lied when they said “it stops with you”. “This is a pandemic of the unvaccinated “. Demonstrably untrue at best, lies at worst. It was an experimental therapeutic. One that we should all be thankful for, but it was by definition not a vaccine.

Funny how positions have changed over the past 10 years.

From a piece written for the Huffington Post

Why I Fear the Dirty Bomb and You Should Too https://share.google/V3pCrI7tRoH70eu1Q

Well great, now we're back to arguing about covid. What's next? Pizzagate? Jewish space lasers?

THIS!
Your major point about future consequences and how it creates perpetual enemies and perpetual war is at the heart of the 'real politik' criticism. ( moral travesties and evil have been largely absent from the national discussion in America. It is front and center in other nations of the world)
The lack of "and then what happens?" thought is absolutely astounding. And Israeli political leaders are just as guilty of it as the US donkeys.

The world had an agreement that for FIFTEEN years had Iran:
Give up 98% of its enriched uranium.
Destroy 2/3 of its centrifuges.
Agree to not enrich uranium beyond 3.x%.
Submit to inspections from multinational experts.
And they were in compliance.
And this was for FIFTEEN YEARS!

Iran got in return:
The return of some of its cash that had been frozen.
An easing of sanctions. ( which didn't happen due largely domestic Israeli and Americcentrifuge.

What we caused by pulling out of the agreement:
A closing of the door that may have lead to gradually returning Iran to the global workings of the nations.

A confirmation that regarding US/Iranian relations, that any diplomacy with America is essentially impossible. That due to how the American executive has evolved, any agreements made lack continuity and surety.
That the USA cannot be trusted to keep its word.

A belief that Iran was faced with the same conditions that evolved regarding Iraq during the Clinton years.
That is that it didn't matter what they did. Nothing they could do would satisfy certain powerful segments of both Israeli and American polity, other than capitulation.

Hence:
By reckless thoughtless action, Iran again was returned to a state of perpetual war.
Human nature being what it is, the assassination of Iran's leaders and initiation of war, all while involved in negotiations, "has awakened (some ordinary Iranians), and filled them with a terrible resolve."

Back to James observation.
There will be consequences.
There may be a long geststional period.
It may Illustrate how truly infantile obsession with the stock market is, as I fear the consequences will involve what truly matters.

we had Italy’s data in March 2020. We knew then lockdowns, before the first one in LA April 7th, were completely unnecessary and would be net damaging. By July we had all the data on masking we needed documented in every country you could look at that masking had no impact whatsoever on spread. We had N95 data from Germany indicating the same. This data would remain consistent for the entirety of Covid. As for the Vaccine, there is no solid data anywhere showing it had any effect at reducing deaths or spread. In fact, look at the transmission rates prior and after vaccine campaign implementation in countries all over the world. The “vaccine” caused spread, by an exponential margin. even in 3rd world countries the data is irrefutable. It is highly likely the vaccine caused a net increase in deaths over any theoretically saved. I say theoretically because there isn’t actually anything solid to be able to argue it saved any lives at all. On top of the well documented severe side effects. Science is data driven. It isn’t hopium wrapped up in fear biased modeling.

As for oil, I agree with Trip on this. We will see 150 dollar/barrel oil. This is far from over. It will be worse than the 70’s oil embargo.

We better hope-a-lot-not.

How is his behavior ridiculous? Because he didn't serve and doesn't agree with your viewpoints? Well I did and I would put my deployment record up against anybody. So stop using Military service as somehow making it like your point is better.

hahhahaha, both paragraphs are utterly ridiculous. You've been thoroughly brainwashed.

dude, are you also not tracking the conversation?
He explicitly stated that people that don’t agree with his position would cower like weaklings. Both myself and others mention military service to explicitly prove that as a false statement. I’m not sure why this is so hard to understand.

you know what the problem is? Is that you and vax keep saying “you guys” or “liberals”

grow up and realize that adults dont fall into partisan lines on every issue. Adults can have broad spectrum opinions that bracket both sides. If you knuckleheads stop arguing against the “left” and just talk about the point at hand youd get a much better interaction.

I can't like this enough.

Today, Oil prices are up after Trump shot down Iran’s latest offer. The SoH has been closed since late February with no signs of a resolution anytime soon. Also, it appears that the US military is unable to open the Strait without investing significantly more assets or landing troops on Iranian soil.

The US economy remains strong. Over the past week, the Iran story has managed to sink below headline level for several days. Meanwhile, in Iran, there are no signs of instability. Their economy is in shambles but Iran is used to this. They fought a long war with Iraq as well as withstanding decades of economic sanctions. Iran has a strong secret police force, an unarmed populace, and a core of true believers in the revolution. That government has staying power.

Are we in a stalemate?

What happens if the airlines continue to hemorrhage cash while the rest of the US economy keeps chugging along happily?

Which airline goes bankrupt next? JetBlue?

As an Alaska pilot, I see our JCBA getting delayed indefinitely, profit sharing going to zero, and the risk of furloughs starting in September. This war will cost me at least $50k in income over the next twelve months. How much will it cost you?

I would like to see us prevail in Iran, but by going to war without congressional approval, without the support of the majority of Americans, and without the support of our allies, Trump has given himself weak negotiating position.

We're in a tough spot, but Trump willingly went along with the Israelis opening strike. I imagine he felt it would be easier to control the conflict if we were a belligerent. I thoroughly believe he has lost interest in this fight, and is just looking for an escape route, but he has said "no nukes" so many times, even he fells he has to come away with that agreement. We're not going to invade, and our economy craters with long term elevated oil prices, I guess we'll just keep bombing "irrational" people until they suddenly become rational.

An interesting piece in the Atlantic Magazine online by Rober Kagan titled "Checkmate in Iran"
He takes it much further than what you wrote, but the overall gist of it is similar.

Some of his points are:
This Iranian adventure has caused great harm. Much of it permanent.
America is now economically poorer, militarily weaker, and diplomatically both discredited and more isolated.

A triple crown ( my phrase)

It’s wild to me watching us dismantle the post WWII international order which WE created solely for OUR benefit, with half the country cheering it on.

I have no idea what’s on the other side of it, but I highly doubt it’s better than us running the carefully crafted world which had us as the only super power since I’ve been alive.

It’s like we had some tantrum, took our ball and stormed home after dominating the playground basketball game for 80 years, much to the bewilderment of our teammates and opponents.

This 100 percent.

& even if rational experienced people are elected and appointed to cabinet positions the damage will take - years? decades? to undo. Or maybe it's already too late.

The Atlantic lol. Might as well have come from the Ayatollah himself.

Europe is free to step up. Ohh wait, they can't. Two decades of Left/Socialist policies have left them economically and politically crippled. They are become more irrelevant by the year.

Do you not know who Robert Kagan is?
Are you unfamiliar with his writings and what he is known for?

Yes, 4 letters

R
I
N
O

Has had a vendetta against Trump since day 1 because of mean tweets or whatever. Hard to find a more biased person out there. Of course he would write for The Atlantic lol

If you're referring to NATO, there could be nothing better for them. If you've ever sat at the MILDEL or been to SHAPE, it's pretty eye opening the difference between the US and the other member-states' militaries.

He left the Republican party in 2016 and voted for hillary. His wife is a career DC swamp creature who served under W, obama and biden. I'm sure no bias from him.

Part of the choices they made years ago, basically they decided to regulate everything and innovate nothing. Their AI trails mightily, but they were proud to lay out the first set of regulations against what it could do. And yes, I agree, having worked with our Nato "allies" that most of them could last a few days against an advanced enemy. Couple that with almost complete energy dependance, they are in a tough spot.

Someone with command of the facts can attack the ideas and not just the source. Just because you think he's a dick - it doesn't make him wrong necessarily.

Trump really has three viable options that I can see.

1) (Feasible) He can change nothing substantial and continue the blockade. That's problematic for pretty obvious reasons, but hopefully it will eventually get him a slightly better deal than the JPCOA that he can sell domestically. That said, it seems likely the Iranians can take economic pain for quite some time, and I'm not optimistic the nuclear program completely ends, based upon what the admin has telegraphed through the news. This is probably his most likely course of action. It likely avoids strategic defeat.

2) (Feasible?) He can conduct a limited ground operation to secure the uranium. That seems politically unpalatable for a lot of reasons, including "no new wars". I would have argued the whole "60 days war powers act" and "Congress/constitutional republic" with midterms coming, but I suspect the "hostilities ended before 60 days" argument would be in play here. If he goes this route, the exec would likely decide to act without congressional authorization, and in conjunction with Israel. This is the only COA that meets the stated objectives of this conflict, but without a negotiated settlement or regime change, it doesn't reopen the straight.

3) (Feasible) He can unilaterally withdraw and hope that Iran doesn't toll the ever-living crap out of traffic transiting the straight...which they probably would, because who's gonna stop them? Europe? Gas goes down, but American hegemony in the Middle East is severely weakened, if not effectively over. This is US strategic defeat.

4) (Infeasible) He can make good on his threats to end Iranian civilization. Seems like a re-hash of PGM strikes wouldn't be enough, not that we have a lot left anyway. Would probably make $150/bbl oil look like a relative bargain. Might wanna get a lot of Canadian sports wear for international overnights. At least AA is tilted domestically. IND, CID, MDT, AVP, and ILM overnights would probably go senior.

5) (Infeasible) Iraq 2.0 style regime change. This is probably the only COA other than #1 that secures something approaching a victory.

Is there something else he can do that we delusional, ignorant, MSM brainwashed peasants can't see? If so, enlighten us by engaging with the subject material and not just yelling about the source.

Just for clarity, the US has an incredible, nearly inexhaustible supply of PGMs. I think you are referring to specific more exquisite weapons that weren’t in large quantities to start, but JDAMs are aplenty, not that you need everything to be that level of precision for acceptable CDE.

Yeah, you're absolutely right on both those counts.

The last time Iran backed down in a major conflict, it required the use of mustard gas and sarin against military and soft targets.

Europe and Asia will resort to jet fuel rationing here in just a few weeks. Tankers are already filling up on US crude and exporting it overseas. Jet fuel shortages are going to hit the west coast shortly thereafter (CA is at it's lowest quantity on hand since 2003). A CIA source quoted a report saying Iran can last in their present predicament for at least the next four months.

The SPR drawdown will end in July.

If the war ends before July, we'll be OK. We've got a few months to see how it plays out. But I don't see Iran moving off their position at all. Why would they? They have the least to lose and most to gain from holding out. They know Trump has backed us into a corner.

There was a way to do this - had the US moved years ago to reduce demand on oil products (ie more EVs like China is doing) this war was doable. The issue is, just like always, the US government operates in knee-jerk mode and does little long term planning (again, like China).

There might be some good news for airlines. *If* and only *if* the war ends quickly in the next few months, Jet A prices should fall significantly (although not to Dec 2025 pricing of under $2) and profits will be healthy, because they are pricing now for $4/gal gas. Same thing happened in 2016(?) when OPEC tried to undercut the frackers.

Yes.

The exquisite munitions are for kicking the door in, cleaning up enemy IADS, and getting after high value, mobile targets whose location will likely become harder to pin down after hostilities commence.

Once air superiority (air supremacy in this case) is achieved, then the ATO basically starts to function like an airline operations schedule, with reusable planes and drones servicing predefined targets with cheap iron bombs (typically with cheap guidance kits), returning to refuel, re-arm, line mx, maybe change crews, and go again. That's sustainable for a *very* long time.

We have vast stockpiles of iron bombs and various bolt-on guidance kits, all very affordable as such things go. We even still have the ability to deploy unguided iron bombs the old fashioned way (I'll let current fighter attack guys weigh in on the current level of proficiency).

We really no longer need the expensive munitions for this conflict, except maybe for an occasional niche application.

The legit concern is that we expended a lot of the high-end stuff, which reduces deterrence in the Pacific until inventories are restored (which will take time due to limited production capacity, even if funded). But the flip side is that we demonstrated to PRC that our chit still works really well, that in and of itself has a deterrent effect. Also demonstrated that the current regime at least isn't afraid of engaging, additional deterrent effect.

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-...3d2f?st=M2QVXC

Things about to get spicy on the West Coast

From the article...."...And it doesn’t help that two of the state’s major refineries closed in the past six months, cutting off almost one-fifth of its fuel-making capacity. Even if the strait reopens soon, its closure has already withheld at least 1 billion barrels from the global market, analysts say. ...

and...

"We are doing everything we can to meet our supply obligations there,” Wirth said. “But it does point out the vulnerabilities that have been created in California as a result of decades of poor energy policy.”

https://i.insider.com/558aaa86eab8ea...jpeg&auto=webp
Approved as requested

Your points are valid, but so are the OP’s. Lack of foresight is not a trait either party has a monopoly on. We need much better governance from all sides.

Sort of like when they didn’t want the pollution caused by generating electricity. Just wanted someone else to do it and just send them the electrons by wire. “Offshored” the actual production - farmed it out to some corporation…

Enron I think the name was…

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journ...3F531DD768D3F4

Dont forget WW1 brought in massive rearranging as well, some of it leading to WW2, and then the Balkan conflicts in the 90’s (basically WW2 continued).

Countries affected (or even created) directly:

• Austria
• Hungary
• Czechoslovakia
• Yugoslavia
• Poland
• Finland
• Estonia
• Latvia
• Lithuania
• Turkey
• Iraq
• Jordan
• Syria
• Lebanon
• Israel
• Ireland

Did we though? Yes, we killed something like 95% of incoming drones/missiles. But the Iranians were still able to do significant damage to some very high end systems. They would’ve killed a lot more of our people as well, but thank god we had the foresight to evacuate them (kudos to the leadership that made that decision). I feel like an alternate lesson the Chinese or Norks might take away is that if you saturate our defenses with enough targets, you’ll eventually get through, kill the radars & the patriot batteries & therefore threaten our regional forces & make your main operation that much easier. Caveat: those concerns are based on open source information. I’m sure there’s plenty we’re not seeing…..but still…

ANY ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE DEFENSE CAN BE SATURATED. The defender must defend a whole perimeter while the attacker need attack only a single point on that perimeter - and generally the point they deem least well defended.

Which is why you need deterrence in the form of your own offensive capability, which our NATO allies largely spent the last three and a half decades divesting themselves of.

A deal made after two 8 yr predecessors did not. It would NOT have led to a nuke already, that is pure falsehood. The billion in cash was already THEIR money. And you’re going to have to show evidence that cash was trailed to make EFP IEDs that maimed and killed our boys. And what boys? Iran didn’t kill any US soldier recently until after Feb 28. And the 6 that died in the same day was a midair collision, not Iranian military action that shot them down.

After Trump killed the deal in 2018, Iran said screw it now and went ahead with enriching to the degree they had NOT done before. And no more monitoring once that deal was killed in 2018. Killing that deal in 2018 without replacing with a new one - how is that good? You need to be able to criticize fairly. You don’t seem to.



Im not going to argue science with you. You are entitled to your own opinions, but you are not entitled to your own facts. You listened to MSNBC and Rachel Maddow? Actually, you didn’t. You saw clips of her on your favorite podcasters and right wing media like Fox. But let’s get down to it, no, a vaccine doesn’t stop you breathing in a virus. You can still catch the virus. The idea was that you wouldn’t get as sick as to end up requiring a hospital bed so we could have those open for the most vulnerable in society - the elder, the pre-existing conditions, etc. Amd the general idea of you wouldn’t get as sick, not be as symptomatic. Win-win. And by the way, operation warp speed to make it in the first place WAS from Trump. Just facts. And everyone at the time on Fox News was vaccinated, despite what they would say every night. Things to think about.


And it was a vaccine, a mRNA type that continues to be used today safely. In fact, you’ll probably see more variants of it for different things than just a coronavirus.




You and I won’t ever see face to face. To come back full circle, I can’t take any of you seriously about Iran. You people have a fantasy that Iran will make a dirty bomb go off in NYC or some large city, and kill what? 50,000-100k? You had 1,000,000 Americans die and your response was to get that face diaper away from me and keep that needle to yourself.


Noted. And summarily dismissed.