Economic Impacts of Iran War
03-28-2026 | 10:03 AM
#521
On Reserve
Joined: Feb 2018
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Likes: 15
03-28-2026 | 11:11 AM
#522
Line Holder
Joined: Dec 2023
Posts: 536
Likes: 140
Nope, you changed the subject from what it is titled, I’m trying to get it back, but nice try in rearranging the facts. I made my point, and backed it up with the greatest investor ever to walk the planet. Go find the crypto thread - good luck with your gambling career.
03-28-2026 | 11:20 AM
#523
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,236
Likes: 254
Getting the thread back on track…
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia...tilizer-export
The Strait of Hormuz is the most important transit route not just for oil but also for fertilizers. Persian Gulf countries account for about 46 percent of global seaborne urea transit and around 30 percent of ammonia transit. These nitrogen compounds are integral for efficient cultivation of almost every food crop. However, their shipping from the Persian Gulf is almost completely paralyzed.
Disruptions to maritime transit through the strait have already triggered a sharp surge in nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer prices. According to Platts, as of March 19, the free on board (FOB) price for Middle East granular urea rose to $604–710 per ton, up from $436–494 before the start of the war. The Southeast Asia granular urea was at $750 per ton on March 19, up from $490–498 in late February. While these prices are still below the 2022 record highs, they continue to grow.
Furthermore, unlike with oil, there are no strategic reserves of urea, no alternate pipelines for ammonia, and no military escort programs. Saudi Arabia has created infrastructure to export oil bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, but no such solutions exist for fertilizers.
The lag between disruptions in fertilizer supply and rising food prices is measured in seasons rather than days. A farmer who doesn’t have access to urea at the start of the planting season might use less fertilizer, switch to a different crop, or forgo planting altogether. This decision affects the harvest in three to six months, and takes longer still to impact supermarket prices. Today we are at the very beginning of this cycle.
The UN World Food Program estimates that the number of people experiencing acute food insecurity could rise by 45 million to a record-high 363 million if the war in Iran doesn’t end by mid-2026, and oil prices remain above $100 a barrel.
Disruptions to maritime transit through the strait have already triggered a sharp surge in nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer prices. According to Platts, as of March 19, the free on board (FOB) price for Middle East granular urea rose to $604–710 per ton, up from $436–494 before the start of the war. The Southeast Asia granular urea was at $750 per ton on March 19, up from $490–498 in late February. While these prices are still below the 2022 record highs, they continue to grow.
Furthermore, unlike with oil, there are no strategic reserves of urea, no alternate pipelines for ammonia, and no military escort programs. Saudi Arabia has created infrastructure to export oil bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, but no such solutions exist for fertilizers.
The lag between disruptions in fertilizer supply and rising food prices is measured in seasons rather than days. A farmer who doesn’t have access to urea at the start of the planting season might use less fertilizer, switch to a different crop, or forgo planting altogether. This decision affects the harvest in three to six months, and takes longer still to impact supermarket prices. Today we are at the very beginning of this cycle.
The UN World Food Program estimates that the number of people experiencing acute food insecurity could rise by 45 million to a record-high 363 million if the war in Iran doesn’t end by mid-2026, and oil prices remain above $100 a barrel.
03-28-2026 | 11:43 AM
#524
On Reserve
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 78
Likes: 15
Nope, you changed the subject from what it is titled, I’m trying to get it back, but nice try in rearranging the facts. I made my point, and backed it up with the greatest investor ever to walk the planet. Go find the crypto thread - good luck with your gambling career.
also why would you think Warren’s buffet it the greatest investor ever to walk the earth. I’d say the Rothschilds would eat his lunch. Also, do a deep dive into his performance history once they changed the insider investor rules.
I’ll make it clear though since you can’t comprehend things very easily. I DONT THINK WARREN BUFFET IS A BAD INVESTOR so don’t come back telling me I’m stupid and said Warren buffet is terrible because I said the Rothschild are better. Two things can be true at once. But i also fail to fathom why you think bitcoin is gambling but stocks aren’t. Do you invest in stocks? Ever seen them go to zero? How is that not gambling?All investing is essentially gambling. But please please please check out buffets performance after they changed the insider trading rules. He never beat the market average again.
03-28-2026 | 11:46 AM
#525
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,473
Likes: 288
From: 737 FO
WTF?! I know I changed the subject. I’m saying once I changed the subject you then engaged in my subject and then only tried to bring it back once I owned you in rational thought.
also why would you think Warren’s buffet it the greatest investor ever to walk the earth. I’d say the Rothschilds would eat his lunch. Also, do a deep dive into his performance history once they changed the insider investor rules.
I’ll make it clear though since you can’t comprehend things very easily. I DONT THINK WARREN BUFFET IS A BAD INVESTOR so don’t come back telling me I’m stupid and said Warren buffet is terrible because I said the Rothschild are better. Two things can be true at once. But i also fail to fathom why you think bitcoin is gambling but stocks aren’t. Do you invest in stocks? Ever seen them go to zero? How is that not gambling?All investing is essentially gambling. But please please please check out buffets performance after they changed the insider trading rules. He never beat the market average again.
also why would you think Warren’s buffet it the greatest investor ever to walk the earth. I’d say the Rothschilds would eat his lunch. Also, do a deep dive into his performance history once they changed the insider investor rules.
I’ll make it clear though since you can’t comprehend things very easily. I DONT THINK WARREN BUFFET IS A BAD INVESTOR so don’t come back telling me I’m stupid and said Warren buffet is terrible because I said the Rothschild are better. Two things can be true at once. But i also fail to fathom why you think bitcoin is gambling but stocks aren’t. Do you invest in stocks? Ever seen them go to zero? How is that not gambling?All investing is essentially gambling. But please please please check out buffets performance after they changed the insider trading rules. He never beat the market average again.
03-28-2026 | 01:19 PM
#526
On Reserve
Joined: Sep 2021
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03-28-2026 | 01:28 PM
#527
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2020
Posts: 2,941
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From: Enoch Powell Enthusiast
03-28-2026 | 03:19 PM
#528
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2015
Posts: 2,630
Likes: 570
From: Guppy Gear Slinger
Well let's see, so far we are accomplishing the following financial transfers as a result of this "expedition":
-- Significantly more money coming out of consumers' pockets and going directly to Russia and Iran. Whether you're filling your tank, buying an airline ticket, or buying anything that has to get shipped anywhere (which is everything, unless you're buying from your next door neighbor)... more of your hard earned money is now supporting Russian and Iranian power.
- Much of those funds are also going to oil companies across the globe. Given the US corporate tax rates, very little of those excess profits will be returned back to the average taxpayer in the form of any kind of beneficial government spending).
- While we continue to add to our national debt at a frankly horrifying rate, we simply push the can down the road. Thereby making our own economic future even dimmer. (And yes, I agree, *both* parties are to blame for this.) But simply compare the amount of debt added under the last few presidents (start with Reagan and go through Trump 47) and ask yourself: really, which party has been worse for the national debt?
-- And as the article above mentions, the SoH controls much more than just the flow of 20 pct of the world's oil. I had no idea that so much of the world's fertilizer depends on that waterway being open. The implications for food costs -- not today, not tomorrow, but months from now -- are staggering.
As Americans, we really have become a soft nation. We have become so used to an incredible standard of living and all the conveniences of the modern age. We've spent much of the last three decades as the world's only superpower, ever since the collapse of the USSR. We're so used to all this prosperity that we absolutely take for granted our pre-eminent status in the world, our standard of living, our position of leadership in science, medicine, technology, and so on.
But now it would appear that we think we can do whatever we like -- threaten allies, back out of deals, start actual.shooting wars, and it will all be just fine, because things have gone mostly our way for the last 8 decades. Those of us who are old enough to remember when we weren't a superpower, are mostly in the next world now.
However, actions have consequences. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. You can only break so many things inside a house before the house comes crashing down on you. This war will affect FAR more than just the price of gas you pay at the pump...but few supporters of the war are willing to realize or admit that.
If this war drags on for a significant period of time, I think even the most hardcore supporters of this war, and of everything else we're doing to try and blow up the world order that has existed since 1945 and allowed us to become the great nation that we are...well, I have to think that at least some of these folks will realize that 'move fast and break things" might have worked as a company motto at Facebook. But it is never the motto of a great nation.
-- Significantly more money coming out of consumers' pockets and going directly to Russia and Iran. Whether you're filling your tank, buying an airline ticket, or buying anything that has to get shipped anywhere (which is everything, unless you're buying from your next door neighbor)... more of your hard earned money is now supporting Russian and Iranian power.
- Much of those funds are also going to oil companies across the globe. Given the US corporate tax rates, very little of those excess profits will be returned back to the average taxpayer in the form of any kind of beneficial government spending).
- While we continue to add to our national debt at a frankly horrifying rate, we simply push the can down the road. Thereby making our own economic future even dimmer. (And yes, I agree, *both* parties are to blame for this.) But simply compare the amount of debt added under the last few presidents (start with Reagan and go through Trump 47) and ask yourself: really, which party has been worse for the national debt?
-- And as the article above mentions, the SoH controls much more than just the flow of 20 pct of the world's oil. I had no idea that so much of the world's fertilizer depends on that waterway being open. The implications for food costs -- not today, not tomorrow, but months from now -- are staggering.
As Americans, we really have become a soft nation. We have become so used to an incredible standard of living and all the conveniences of the modern age. We've spent much of the last three decades as the world's only superpower, ever since the collapse of the USSR. We're so used to all this prosperity that we absolutely take for granted our pre-eminent status in the world, our standard of living, our position of leadership in science, medicine, technology, and so on.
But now it would appear that we think we can do whatever we like -- threaten allies, back out of deals, start actual.shooting wars, and it will all be just fine, because things have gone mostly our way for the last 8 decades. Those of us who are old enough to remember when we weren't a superpower, are mostly in the next world now.
However, actions have consequences. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. You can only break so many things inside a house before the house comes crashing down on you. This war will affect FAR more than just the price of gas you pay at the pump...but few supporters of the war are willing to realize or admit that.
If this war drags on for a significant period of time, I think even the most hardcore supporters of this war, and of everything else we're doing to try and blow up the world order that has existed since 1945 and allowed us to become the great nation that we are...well, I have to think that at least some of these folks will realize that 'move fast and break things" might have worked as a company motto at Facebook. But it is never the motto of a great nation.
03-28-2026 | 03:56 PM
#529
Line Holder
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 560
Likes: 136
Well let's see, so far we are accomplishing the following financial transfers as a result of this "expedition":
-- Significantly more money coming out of consumers' pockets and going directly to Russia and Iran. Whether you're filling your tank, buying an airline ticket, or buying anything that has to get shipped anywhere (which is everything, unless you're buying from your next door neighbor)... more of your hard earned money is now supporting Russian and Iranian power.
- Much of those funds are also going to oil companies across the globe. Given the US corporate tax rates, very little of those excess profits will be returned back to the average taxpayer in the form of any kind of beneficial government spending).
- While we continue to add to our national debt at a frankly horrifying rate, we simply push the can down the road. Thereby making our own economic future even dimmer. (And yes, I agree, *both* parties are to blame for this.) But simply compare the amount of debt added under the last few presidents (start with Reagan and go through Trump 47) and ask yourself: really, which party has been worse for the national debt?
-- And as the article above mentions, the SoH controls much more than just the flow of 20 pct of the world's oil. I had no idea that so much of the world's fertilizer depends on that waterway being open. The implications for food costs -- not today, not tomorrow, but months from now -- are staggering.
As Americans, we really have become a soft nation. We have become so used to an incredible standard of living and all the conveniences of the modern age. We've spent much of the last three decades as the world's only superpower, ever since the collapse of the USSR. We're so used to all this prosperity that we absolutely take for granted our pre-eminent status in the world, our standard of living, our position of leadership in science, medicine, technology, and so on.
But now it would appear that we think we can do whatever we like -- threaten allies, back out of deals, start actual.shooting wars, and it will all be just fine, because things have gone mostly our way for the last 8 decades. Those of us who are old enough to remember when we weren't a superpower, are mostly in the next world now.
However, actions have consequences. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. You can only break so many things inside a house before the house comes crashing down on you. This war will affect FAR more than just the price of gas you pay at the pump...but few supporters of the war are willing to realize or admit that.
If this war drags on for a significant period of time, I think even the most hardcore supporters of this war, and of everything else we're doing to try and blow up the world order that has existed since 1945 and allowed us to become the great nation that we are...well, I have to think that at least some of these folks will realize that 'move fast and break things" might have worked as a company motto at Facebook. But it is never the motto of a great nation.
-- Significantly more money coming out of consumers' pockets and going directly to Russia and Iran. Whether you're filling your tank, buying an airline ticket, or buying anything that has to get shipped anywhere (which is everything, unless you're buying from your next door neighbor)... more of your hard earned money is now supporting Russian and Iranian power.
- Much of those funds are also going to oil companies across the globe. Given the US corporate tax rates, very little of those excess profits will be returned back to the average taxpayer in the form of any kind of beneficial government spending).
- While we continue to add to our national debt at a frankly horrifying rate, we simply push the can down the road. Thereby making our own economic future even dimmer. (And yes, I agree, *both* parties are to blame for this.) But simply compare the amount of debt added under the last few presidents (start with Reagan and go through Trump 47) and ask yourself: really, which party has been worse for the national debt?
-- And as the article above mentions, the SoH controls much more than just the flow of 20 pct of the world's oil. I had no idea that so much of the world's fertilizer depends on that waterway being open. The implications for food costs -- not today, not tomorrow, but months from now -- are staggering.
As Americans, we really have become a soft nation. We have become so used to an incredible standard of living and all the conveniences of the modern age. We've spent much of the last three decades as the world's only superpower, ever since the collapse of the USSR. We're so used to all this prosperity that we absolutely take for granted our pre-eminent status in the world, our standard of living, our position of leadership in science, medicine, technology, and so on.
But now it would appear that we think we can do whatever we like -- threaten allies, back out of deals, start actual.shooting wars, and it will all be just fine, because things have gone mostly our way for the last 8 decades. Those of us who are old enough to remember when we weren't a superpower, are mostly in the next world now.
However, actions have consequences. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. You can only break so many things inside a house before the house comes crashing down on you. This war will affect FAR more than just the price of gas you pay at the pump...but few supporters of the war are willing to realize or admit that.
If this war drags on for a significant period of time, I think even the most hardcore supporters of this war, and of everything else we're doing to try and blow up the world order that has existed since 1945 and allowed us to become the great nation that we are...well, I have to think that at least some of these folks will realize that 'move fast and break things" might have worked as a company motto at Facebook. But it is never the motto of a great nation.
03-28-2026 | 05:15 PM
#530
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 1,401
Likes: 473
I fear Turbonista is correct, but I hope Vax is right and makes us all look like drama queens.
America derives its wealth, power and influence on being a known entity on the world stage. The last year has been the most flagrant “let’s shake it up!” example of us, for some reason, taking a wrecking ball to that position. Like, why? We’ve been running the earth since the end of WWII. This also isn’t going to be an “oopsie, that didn’t work out, sorry everyone let’s go back to how it was a decade ago.” Situation. Bridges are burned. The world is going to be fundamentally different going forward.
Americans by and large have taken the last 80 years for granted. Elections don’t matter to us aside from being a sporting event for your side to win, even if they do the exact opposite of what they said they would.
America derives its wealth, power and influence on being a known entity on the world stage. The last year has been the most flagrant “let’s shake it up!” example of us, for some reason, taking a wrecking ball to that position. Like, why? We’ve been running the earth since the end of WWII. This also isn’t going to be an “oopsie, that didn’t work out, sorry everyone let’s go back to how it was a decade ago.” Situation. Bridges are burned. The world is going to be fundamentally different going forward.
Americans by and large have taken the last 80 years for granted. Elections don’t matter to us aside from being a sporting event for your side to win, even if they do the exact opposite of what they said they would.
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