I ran across this opinion article of Anderson and Steenland getting back together. Just wondering your thoughts on the plausibility of this actually happening.

 

I'd say it's been in the works for at least 3 years....

 

$100 oil could force the industry consolidation we thought we had avoided. DL and NW would be a good fit. No merger, however, would be pain free for labor.

 

I fail to see how $100 oil or any single event justifies a merger. I have never bought the "too many legacy carrier" arguments either. As soon as we're down to 3 carriers people will be screaming for competition to give them options....since those mean old "big 3" carriers have all the pricing power locked up. And then various low fare carriers will swoop into the vacuums... there will be no controlled capacity. And the Air Trans, JetBlues, Frontiers will eventually grow and grow until they become just like the carriers they target. Kind of like whole Anakin/Luke Skywalker sydrome.

Our creditors/shareholders and various management people will push for this because it allows them to cash out, and thats about it.

Stand by for synergy!

 

and the reason they are a good fit is their lack of real competition.. NWA has asia, dal has europe, they dont share any hubs in the u.s. that i am aware of. not saying it would be bad for labor, but i would think there would be little change if the two were to merge, they would more than likely keep going the way they are and just be under one owner.

 

I read an article speculating that Delta would close its Cincinnati base and Northwest would close its Memphis base. Any flight/operations that would not be shut down in those bases would move to Detroit and Atlanta, respectively. Who knows if that would work, but it's just another viewpoint that I've seen out there.

It seems to me that consolidation would be a good thing for legacy carriers, but I agree that low costs would come in and gobble up any market left by the wayside - Skybus might be able to increase their share of Ohio, etc etc. Consolidation could work, but it could create a mess too. What does everyone else's crystal ball say?

I've just resigned myself to not being able to figure out anything this industry will do....see what happens and ride along while you try to do everything possible to make your pay/work rules/life as good as possible.

 

I firmly believe it is not a question of "IF" but "WHEN". Both DAL and NWA pilots have, or soon will have, a merger fund in place to fight what I think will be a long battle to merge seniority lists. The last one (NWA/REP) took 20 years.

 

I agree.

Tom

 

No merger is needed. Just do the NWA/KLM deal and it works just fine. No Union seniority problems...no computer issues....just work seperately together..if that makes any sense..

 

Dude,

This isn't about "working just fine" for the flying public or even whats best for the individual airlines. This is about making the management teams and BOD's of the respective airlines as rich as possible. This includes the executive team at Midwest Express, too. They have planned this a long time. Why else do you think DAL turned down US Air cold? Why else do you think Midwest Express turned down Air Tran cold? Why do you think the airlines are still making money with oil at $96 a barrel? Because they want to and we are just pawns in their game. The saying is very true...

-Choice is an illusion created by those with power for those who don't.