aerospacepilot

Where will oil prices be at this time next year? Sept 1, 2009. Last year we had an interesting poll and there was a whole range of answers (some people thought $60 while most people thought $100+, and as high as $140+. The people who said $120-$140 were correct for last years poll. Post your guess, reasoning, and answer the poll. We can dig it up in a year.



I'm going with $130-$150.

Patch

There is more "speculation" that we'll actually do something with alternatives. Demand has also come down. Mark me in the 70-90 crowd. But who the hell knows, OPEC and Congress are all ate up.

ryan1234

with inflation, summer time oil highs, hurricane season (all the typical stuff)... next Sept. mark me in the $110 to $130 crowd...probably more towards the $115 side... .but I agree with patch... who the hell knows?

ToiletDuck

Not to rag on you but there is NO way that anyone could guess. OPEC themselves were shouting $150-$200 by the end of August. Now look.

Oil is not supply and demand right now. It's speculation based. Everyone shouted it wasn't speculation simply to keep the price up however it's down 50 points in a VERY short time. There's no reason Oil couldn't dive back down to the 60s and there's no reason it can't jump back into the $120+ range. It takes one hurricane, one reserves report, one terrorist act on a pipeline in a country we don't even get oil from, one 3rd world country going to war with another 3rd world country, one wrong word from the Fed Res Chairs mouth, etc. to cause a major spike. Each of these instances have single handily caused 5+ point jumps within minutes. Some well over 10.

If anyone had any idea where oil would be CAL wouldn't have hedged where they did and every airline out there would have hedged more.

Led Zep

My crystal ball hasn't arrived yet so I can't give a definitive answer.

I agree with Toilet Duck though, it is impossible to tell because of too many variables. I will say that I still plan on driving to a gas station to fill up my tank next year and for many years to come.

flyingtigermco

Why not roll some dice and multiply the result by 50? I'd rather bet on the sun coming up tomorrow.

mike734

I voted for below $70. Why? Because Obama will pump up some serious rhetoric about alternative fuels and will address the systemic reasons for turmoil in the Middle East which will relieve pressure in the Mid-East pressure cooker. Speculators will see this as having a negative impact on high oil prices. Also Opec is having trouble staying together.

Hey. Just an Opinion. I hope I'm right. Time will tell.

Herkulesdrvr

Next year? $50

Oldfreightdawg

Not to get off track...

In the words of a certain former airline CEO: "airlines didn't make money with oil at $30 or at $70, and it won't make money at $120."

The industry needs to fix some underlying problems: descent air service for a price that allows them to earn a profit. Until then, none of this talk about oil will matter much. If airlines had to adjust fares and capacity for oil at $300 a barrel, fares would still be below the inflation adjusted prices in 1978 when airlines first became deregulated.

b2pilot186

Chevy, Ford and Toyota have electric cars slated for production in the next 2-3 years as well. Once electric and fuel cell cars hit the market, I bet a barrel of oil will cost less than bottled water.

B2P