What AMR NEEDS to do and what they HAVE done have almost always been two different things. No illusions there.

There has ALWAYS been one aspect that has been consistant though. AMR will act in its own best interest first and coupleing large labor cost increases across the board (the ultimate result of an APA victory) with a feed system either abandoned due to cost or operated at a even larger loss is (in their minds) NOT in their best interest.

They'll have no problem convincing the BOD, Congress and any judge of that very thing.

I don't like it either, but unless the APA comes up with a plan that AMR can swallow that allows them to pay more and still be competitive, I see no solution here that benefits AA pilots in the long run.

To tell the truth, I don't give a rat's rear end what AMR "needs." The bottom line is if they want a BK contract, management and the shareholders are going to take a really big haircut as well in a legal BK.

Also, what your suggesting is that the unions "negotiate" with themselves. Not our job to manage the airline. That's for the indispensible top talent to do.

I'm done funding their big bonuses out of my pay.

Take it to BK, or even Chapter 7. Bring it on.

I agree.
eaglefly is working for eagle which is not producing any profit, yet is trying to manage my unions negotiating tactics and expectations.
7576

You couldn't be more wrong. In fact, your hubris and misconceptions threaten to blow up in our face after many pilots get complacent thinking "it's in the bag." Far from it. Just because you read a lot of chest thumping on various internet message boards, doesn't mean it represents "99%" of the seniority list.

You think AMR is just going to cough up a multi-BILLION dollar contract? You think it is bad/stressful now? Wait until we get close to a job action and guys start getting fired, sued, thrown in jail, or all of the above.

Sure, there is a small percentage of pilots that are either financially independent of the job at AA, or could become so relatively quickly. However, let's examine a couple of realities.

Most pilots have NO back up plan, and no secondary skill sets. If a Captain lost his $150,000 job today, what job (with ZERO experience) would he be able to pick up tomorrow that pays a comparable salary?

In today's economy, how many $100K+ jobs are there actually out there? How many even $50K+ jobs are out there? Out of those, how many people are vying for them, and how many of those are FAR more experienced than the pilot?

You are assuming everyone wil participate. There is already a huge faction of x-TWA pilots that have told their base chair that they will refuse to participate in ASH. There is also an embarassingly large number that have said that they will outright scab. (Before the x-TWA types start howling on here, I have already confirmed this information from several sources at APA. It is not just a rumor.) There is also the large nAAtive contingent that is scared out of their minds right now. There are actually pilots that are "outraged" that APA is asking for a "raise" right now. If you don't believe me, call your base chair and ask them about some of the hate mail, soundoffs, and phone calls they get. (I have confirmed this info as well) What will the Eagle pilots do? What "offer" will their union serve up to AMR in an effort to secure larger jets on Eagle property?

What about national politics? What will Obama do? Will other unions support a non-AFL-CIO union? What support will we get from congress? What will AMR do in court? Will there be injunctions and/or restraining orders?

Before you start throwing rocks at the messenger, consider I am one of the few that is actually financially dependent of the airline. I am also cognisant of the fact that I am in the minority. If you think that AMR corporation isn't acutely aware of these facts, you are naive. They will use this fact and exploit it to their advantage. They have done so in the past, and will continue to do so (very effictively) in the future.

The bottom like is, most guys are scared to lose their job. They have no skills to fall back on and could not get a job that pays nearly what a pilot salary pays.

With these factors, is it really possible to get a great contract? YES. All I am saying is that it will not be easy. Despite the things I have listed working againsed us, you have to look at what we do have going for us.

- A possibly labor friendly government
- The threat of a general strike
- The possibility that the government will not allow corporations to "use" the court system to trump the RLA and collective bargaining (1113c filings)
- Management losing 10's of thousands of shares of bonus stock in a BK filing. IOW, they have a lot to lose in BK as well. I don't think they want to go there.
- Idiotic management taking ridiculous bonuses after tanking our airline and making egregious errors. A great motivator i.e. ****ed off pilots
- "Hardliners" running the union that will not cut concessionary deals
- Surprisingly good financials around the corner (small commentary - we are first in line for "snapback" contracts. What we get will play a HUGE role in what other pilot groups ask for or attain. With that being said, AMR and the ATA have a HUGE interest in making airline financials look horrible right now, and scaring us into submission. IOW, I don't think the airlines are nearly as bad off as they proclaim. Have you calculated that savings from cheap fuel and fees alone?)

With all of the above considered, I have concluded that we will prevail. I think the union is doing a good job in keeping the membership engaged, ****ed off, informed, and neutralizing management FUD. I believe some of the factors we have going for us will overcome some of the pitfalls we have facing us. Again, this is just my opinion. My opinion and a couple of bucks will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. :) Your opinion and mileage will vary.

Before signing off, I just have to say - If you are sill reading my unibomber style rant, I am impressed! You can cross yourself off the list for a possible candidate of ADD! :D

PP

I agree with your position, with the caveat that eagle doesn't turn a profit by design, because AMR runs it that way... it's just a way for them to shift money around. If it were a legit capacity purchase agreement, AMR wouldn't be billing them $30 bucks for a bag of ice, and $150 for a GPU, regardless if it is used or not.... Eagle is a money shuffle for AMR. If the fee's and charges were in line with other CPA's eagle would in all likelyhood show a profit.
In my opinion, it's little more than a ride to work as far as I'm concerned, something along the lines of CHQ and their Blue chicken.

I just love this. I hope you're not as involved with EA ALPA as you claim to be.
You're at a fork in the road, looks like you've got your turn signal blinking for executive compensation avenue.
Good luck.
7576

Are you REALLY that far gone ?

[CHECK FOR SALIVA ON THE KEYBOARD]

You seem to be telling everyone here a little old Eagle employee is actually INFLUENCING AA pilots future, negotiating for the APA and "managing" things for them by...........*drum roll please*.............ASKING QUESTIONS here and getting no sensible answers.

If you're that delusional, gullible and misguided, you guys are worse off than I thought. By that token , if a scruffy man in a trenchcoat gave you a lollipop, I'd suppose you'd follow him into an alley.

Wheels up is right when he says he (and a large percentage) of AA pilots don't give a damn what AA "needs". Not necessarily because that many are, but because the perception is there and the APA leadership has commited to a hardline stance. They'll lose all credibility now with most everyone if they backpeddle to a marshmellow "compromise" policy. It is a perfect example of pure emotion and the intent to bring AMR to their knees will satisfy that emotion, but not likley to be be sustainable. All I'm saying is that many recognize that and know "smoothing things over" this time is unlikely. The old methods of the past have been used up and that's why many believe a new tack for AMR is unavoidable and THEY know it. Again, if someone can make a valid explanation of just how all this can be successful and leave AA competitive (and thus out of court), I'd love to hear it.

That's why I believe they'll ultimately HAVE to use the BK process as it's becoming increasingly clear there will be no alternative. Even MODEST contractual improvements will have to come at the expense of at least competitive scope provisons. Iron clad scope protections will likely cost most contractual improvements. Getting everything empowers the other union with leverage to get the same and then............well, the unavoidable. Go ahead and try to burn the house down, but don't be surprised if they've got a deal in advance with the local water department to put out the flames more quickly than anticipated and local handymen to rebuild better then new. Remember, they'll have the luxury of incorporating a lot of new whiz-bang technology (and materials) to insure a similar fire is less likely in the future for the survivors who will exist in that house.

BTW, please post where I ever claimed to be involved with EA ALPA. That's one of many incorrect (and emotion fueled) assumptions in your glove box. My bet says you (and the APA) do indeed intend to disregard the fork in the road and continue full speed STRAIGHT ahead, intoxicated with certain success with the accelerator floored on the path you think will get you home fastest.

But, what if the calculations are wrong and a fat oak tree is in the middle of that fork ?

I suppose you could right a song about it later like Lynyrd Skynyrd...........provided you survive the impact, of course.

eaglefly,
It's called negotiations. Both sides put their game faces on.
Your opinion as an eagle employee is noted. Thanks. I got it.
Your critique of APA is also noted. Got it. Thanks.

My opinion. AA can afford to pay it's pilots more. And they will. Got it?

Your constant opinion that AA will go Bankrupt just sounds so much like Aircon retoric to me.

I have a lot of faith in our APA officials. I helped vote for this team.

It's interesting how only you see the correct path that my union should take. Wow, i'm touched. Thanks for your concern.

My feeling is that you are upset that all 3 AA unions are due for new contracts and the threat of BK scares you.

To use one of your analogies or similies, you shouldn't have tied your horse to this wagon train.

I flew for a commuter as a captain for 10 years before AA.
7576

You may be misunderstanding me. While I'm taking a hard stand, I doubt if the union will get everything demanding in the opener. But on the other hand, AA ain't gonna get scope gutted, work rules gutted even over the 2003 contract. They are NOT going to get a bankruptcy contract without the bankruptcy. AA needs to come to the negotiating table and bargain in good faith, which they are NOT doing now. If they want a limp Delta contract, Arpey needs to run the airline into the ground, destroy shareholder value, and take his chances in court . . . if he can get the financing. In the end he might then get a Delta caliber contract. In the meantime, he'll have probably 1500 senior captain bailout (like Delta) and still have abysmal employee morale. This is the bed that management has made for themselves. They are getting exactly the kind of union that they have richly earned. It didn't have to be this way, but nevertheless it is.

Eaglefly.

A lot of people think like you do about AMR anticipating going in to prepackaged BK. It may happen but as others have mentioned it won't be as easy as it used to be.
I think a more likely scenario is that they know they owe us money. They are just trying to drag it out as long as it takes. Those of us who fly airplanes need to keep our eye on the ball which is securing the most lucrative package we can. Management certainly does for themselves. Aircrew pay rates will not determine the fate of AA just as it didn't determine the fate at EA, BF, PA or TWA. Those guys were mostly in the toilet when those airlines exploded. Management determines our fate not us. Our jobs as Union guys is simply to let management know, through a strike if necessary, what we are willing to turn a wheel for. That's it.
As a side note I might add that first ALPA contract was signed by AA in the midst of the worst economic downturn in history. Those guys didn't flinch, they weren't afraid to act, and neither should we.